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National Situation Update: Monday, August 25, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Showers and thunderstorms will cover the southern U.S. east of Texas and Oklahoma today, while isolated showers and storms are forecast for Texas and Oklahoma. The center of Tropical Depression Fay's slow-moving circulation will remain in Louisiana or Mississippi.

 Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will continue threaten parts of the Deep South. The remnants of Fay will cause downpours in Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, eastern Tennessee, Georgia and parts of the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday.

Midwest
Cool Canadian high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest early this morning will cause temperatures to drop into the mid-to-upper 20s and 30s away from the lakes across northern Minnesota, western Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin. Isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorms may occur over Nebraska and Kansas, and showers might affect the Ohio Valley including Kentucky and Missouri.

West
A dry cold front will deliver gusty winds and a scattering of light showers (and isolated dry thunderstorms) to the Pacific Northwest as far east as northwest Montana today.
The most likely area for showers are: extreme northwest Montana, northern Idaho and far eastern Washington.

Much farther to the south, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop over the Four Corners states, mainly in the higher elevations. High temperatures will range to around 100 in eastern Montana, and over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Depression Fay Response

Fay is nearly stationary over southern MS and will remain stalled for another 12-24 hours before moving northeast into central MS or central AL by Tuesday, August 26, 2008. Fay is located about 75 miles south of Jackson, MS and 90 miles north of New Orleans, LA. As the system will initially remain quasi-stationary through tonight moisture will stream northward on the eastern side of Fay helping spawn moderate to heavy rainfall over the central Gulf and extending into the lower Tennessee Valley.

While the high wind threat will become of less concern as Fay gradually weakens over land flooding remains possible across the central Gulf States as the rain bands have not moved significantly. Temperatures across the region will remain close to the 80 degree mark with high humidity as extensive cloud cover and persistent rains will limit surface heating.

Federal Response
The NRCC is activated at Level III 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. EDT with support from External Affairs, Operations, Planning, Logistics, Finance, Department of Defense Liaison and U.S. Coast Guard Liaison.

Region IV:
Level III 12 hour operations beginning today, August 25, 2008 until JFO is established.
PDA Teams continue assessments in FL. IMAT Situational Awareness (SA) Team is located in Nassau County, FL. Pre-designated FCO at AL EOC.

Region VI:
The RRCC remains at Level II, 24/7- planning for worst-case event (Major Flooding / stalling of Fay)
FEMA Region VI Incident Management Assistance Team is located at the Baton Rouge Warm Cell, and Situational Awareness Unit located in New Orleans, LA. ESFs 3, 6, 8, DoD and USCG are at EOC; all others on stand-by. St. Charles Parish in LA activated. USACE reports levee problems in New Orleans are not anticipated. Canal pumps have been deployed to New Orleans; gates were tested and working.

State Actions
State of Florida:   
Eleven (11) fatalities; five (5) injuries are confirmed 
The state of Florida is still in response mode due to potential flooding. 
The EOC was at Level I, 24/7 but scaled back August 24, 2008.
Major Disaster Declaration for four (4) counties for Public Assistance with more to be added; IA request is pending.
Labor Emergency Grant for $20 million requested and pending
IOF established and staffed in Orlando.
Flooding in FL continues as rivers from neighboring states flow into FL.
2 state DRCs opened yesterday (originally scheduled to open Tuesday, August 26) in Barefoot Bay and Melbourne
Tyndall AFB resumes normal operations as of 0700 EDT, today, August 25, 2008

A National Emergency Grant was submitted to the Department of Labor for humanitarian aid / business recapitalization needs.Priorities are the on-going PDAs and continuing to identify a JFO location. Three (3) shelters remain open with two hundred ninety-five (295) occupants . (FL reports as of 0300 EDT, 8/25). 26,198 power outages are reported. 

State of Georgia:
One (1) confirmed fatality; one (1) injury have been reported. Shelters/Population: 2/40 (NSS Report as of midnight, 8/24)

State of Mississippi:
The EOC is monitoring (Level IV) the conditions.Each coastal county will open at least 1 shelter.

State of Alabama:
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency. TheEOC activated with a Unified Command established. State of AL reports 1 confirmed fatality. Power outages 45,935. Shelters/Population: 4/81 (NSS Report as of midnight, 8/24)

State of Louisiana:
State Crisis Action Team located at EOC and monitoring situation. Six (6) shelters are on stand-by in three (3) parishes.No limiting factors are anticipated.   (Senior Leadership Briefing, TS Fay - 1700, August 24, 2008)

National Infrastructure Coordinating Center (NICC)

There are no reported significant impacts to nationally significant critical infrastructure and/or key resources. 

US Coast Guard

All ports are open except for Pasacagoula, MS and Mobile, AL. A single over-flight was conducted yesterday to inspect ports.Two (2) Disaster Area Response Teams are on stand-by.

Colorado Tornadoes and Severe Weather

A tornado was reported at 5:21 p.m. MDT about 2 miles in Douglas County north of Castle Rock, CO and east of I-25.  The tornado was on the ground for approximately 15 minutes in primarily rural areas.  There is no report of damage or injury. The Colorado Department of Transportation reports that State Highway 67 is closed at mile marker 97, three miles south of Deckers (Douglas County), CO due to a mudslide.   (FEMA Region VIII)

Texas Severe Weather/Flooding Response

The EOC activated at Level I Emergency Operations for Severe Storms and Flooding on August 18, 2008. The Texas Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration. Texas DOT, DPS, and military forces continue to aid in flood response operations

One (1) shelter open in Starr County with thiry-one (31) occupants (NSS Report Aug 24 8:45 EDT)                 
Flood waters continue to recede in Clay and Wichita counties with roads reopening.   (Senior Leadership Briefing, TS Fay - 1700, August 24, 2008)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

There is nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean
Invest 94
A broad area of low pressure continues over eastern Caribbean Sea between Puerto Rico and the Netherland Antilles.  The associated thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated and reports from a NOAA buoy indicate the low-level circulation may be becoming better organized.  Upper-level winds are currently favorable for development and the system could become a tropical depression later today as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system today if necessary.

Invest 95
There is disorganized shower activity several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and is associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not currently favorable for tropical cyclone formation and development if any is expected to be slow to occur.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Julio
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located about 30 miles west-southwest of Loreto, Mexico. Julio is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and julio is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today.

Western Pacific
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Monday at 12:32 a.m.EDT an earthquake with a 4.5 magnitude struck Alaska, 57 miles south of Perryville with a depth of 7.1 miles. No damages or injuries were reported. No Tsumamis. (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 24, 2008:

• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
• Initial attack activity: Light (69 new fires)
• New large fires: 5
• Uncontained large fires: 27
• Large fires contained: 3
• States with Large fires: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, TN, WA and WY

Warm and dry conditions continue throughout much of the West.  Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in northeast Nevada, northern Utah and western Wyoming.  A large low pressure system will approach the northwest with scattered showers mainly west of the Cascades, spreading east.  Winds speeds will also begin to increase across the West. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 24, 2008 the President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1785-DR-FL, for Tropical Storm Fay, August 18, 2008 and continuing.  Four counties (Brevard, Monroe, Okeechobee, and St. Lucie) are eligible for Public Assistance.  All counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.(FEMA HQ)