• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Sunday, August 24, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South:  Heavy, flooding, multi-inch rains will affect Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle today and tomorrow before expanding northward into Tennessee and eastward into Georgia and the western Carolinas. As the rain pushes into these new parts of the South, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are likely and some locales could see 15-20 inches.

Sunday through Tuesday, a cold front will go stationary along the northern fringe of the region from near the Kansas-Oklahoma border to near the Virginia-North Carolina border and could help to focus the northern fringe of Fay's moisture.

West:  High temperatures in Montana will be in the 90s Sunday and top 100 in Glasgow and Miles City on Monday, ahead of a cold front.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop in Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona today and across the Four Corners' states tomorrow and Tuesday.

Highs early week in the Desert Southwest will range from near 100 in Tucson to 120 in Death Valley. (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Colorado Tornadoes

At 3:00 pm MDT, thunderstorms produced brief tornadoes and funnel clouds over east-central Park County in Colorado.

The Park County Emergency Manager reported a touch-down of a tornado at Eleven-mile Reservoir in Park County, Colorado.

As of 4:22 pm MDT, there were four injuries, two required transport by EMS.  No further resources are needed.  NWS has advised that the storm has moved out of the area.   (FEMA Region VIII)

Forecasters Downgrade Fay to a Tropical Depression

Tropical Storm Fay was downgraded to a tropical depression, but cities along the Gulf Coast were still bracing for heavy rain. As a tropical storm, Fay set a record with four landfalls in Florida and was blamed for at least 11 deaths emergency officials said.
Though the storm weakened as it traveled inland, with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph, cities from Pensacola to storm-wary New Orleans were still preparing for possible flooding.

"People automatically assume that if it weakens, the hazards go down with it, but in the case of rainfall, it's not a function of wind speed," said a representative of the National Hurricane Center. "Slow moving systems dump a lot of rainfall."  The forecast indicates the depression could slow in the next few days and possibly stall over southern Mississippi or eastern Louisiana.

Thousands of homes and businesses in Florida were inundated with flood waters this week as the storm worked its way north from its first landfall in the Florida Keys and zigzagged across the peninsula.

Fay's center made its fourth landfall early Saturday about 15 miles north-northeast of Apalachicola, according to the National Hurricane Center.  Rains and strong wind gusts blitzed Tallahassee, the state capital, for more than 24 hours, knocking down trees and power lines and cutting electricity to more than 12,000 customers, city officials said.

The U.S. Coast Guard in Mobile, Ala., closed numerous ports and waterways between Panama City in Florida and the Alabama coast to the east.  Emergency officials in low-lying cities in the storm's path aren't taking any chances.  In Alabama, officials opened shelters in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin. Trucks capable of rescuing people from floodwaters were also in place, said a spokeswoman for the Alabama Emergency Management Agency.

In the New Orleans area forecasts called for 1 to 3 inches of rain on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain. In St. Bernard Parish, emergency officials were handing out sandbags Saturday.  City officials in Slidell, La., where forecasters predicted several inches of rain late Sunday through Monday, said emergency vehicles had been fueled and workers were on call.  Sandbags were also distributed in Ocean Springs, Gulfport and Biloxi on the Mississippi coast.

The Air Force Reserve's 403rd Wing evacuated aircraft from Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi to locations in South Florida and Texas. The 403rd includes planes known as "hurricane hunters" that officials said would be available to continue to monitor Fay.  The Gulf Islands National Seashore closed a campground area and four barrier islands to the public.

The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, R. David Paulison, visited the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Saturday to discuss concerns of flooding on the Gulf Coast if the storm continues to creep on its path, a FEMA spokeswoman said.  Fay's wake caused widespread flooding along Florida's east coast, especially in Jacksonville near the storm's third landfall.

The Office of Insurance Regulation reported Saturday that roughly 6,700 homeowners filed claims, although only some were because of flooding.  Fay had been an unusual storm since it was named Aug. 15. After hitting the Keys Monday, it crossed open water again before hitting a second time near Naples on the southwest coast. It limped across the state, popped back out into the Atlantic Ocean and struck again near Flagler Beach on the central eastern coast.

It was the first storm in almost 50 years to make three landfalls in the state as a tropical storm. Its fourth landfall as such was the first in recorded history.

"This is unprecedented in terms of the slow nature of this storm, the large circulation and the fact that it's impacted probably about 90 percent of the state with heavy rains and severe weather," a state meteorologist said.   (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Depression Fay
Tropical Depression Fay will continue to steer moisture into the southeastern U.S. pummeling the eastern Gulf Coast with more heavy to moderate rains. Even though Fay has been downgraded to a tropical depression by no means have the hazards diminished the primary concern being flooding.

Currently tropical depression Fay is over southern Alabama is forecast to move slowly westward stall out today and then begin lifting towards the northeast by Tuesday as a result of the steering flow. Currently the heaviest precipitation is north of the low pressure center.

The threat of excessive rains will continue into tomorrow and are expected along the eastern perimeter of the central circulation although a broad swath of scattered precipitation is expected from Georgia to eastern Texas.

Federal Response:
NRCC is activated at Level III  7:00 a.m. -  7:00 p.m. EDT
FEMA Region IV is activated at Level II monitoring Tropical Depression Fay
FEMA Region VI is activating at Level II monitoring Tropical Depression Fay
The Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) is activated and deployed to the National Hurricane Center.
16 Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) Teams on standby (6 Individual Assistance; 10 Public Assistance) 
IA PDAs have been completed in Martin and St. Lucie counties, FL.
PA PDAs are in progress for Monroe, Okeechobee, St. Lucie, and Brevard counties, FL.
PA PDAs began today for Collier, Hardee, Palm Beach, Hendry, and Glade counties, FL. 

State Response:
Florida:
Emergency Services reports continuing 1-2 ft. storm surge and high beach erosion in Duval County.
State reports 11 confirmed fatalities and 5 confirmed injuries.
10 shelters open with a population of 141.
Brunswick, Port of Panama City and Port of Pensacola Ports remain closed.
Region IV reports 94,385 power outages in Florida
Florida health concerns related to environmental impacts from flooding include assuring safe drinking water, maintaining sewage systems, vector control and Environmental Epidemiology surveillance.
EOC activated at Level I (Full Activation)

Mississippi:
Each coastal county will open at least one shelter.
Mississippi activated to level II and planning activation to Level I on Sunday in preparation of flood event.
ESFs 3,6,8,10,13 and 15 on alert

Alabama:
Alabama established Unified Command at EOC; shelters opening; no unmet need.  Activation level III.
Governor Bob Riley declared a State of Emergency

Invest 94
A tropical wave over the Windward Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms and surface observations suggest that a broad surface circulation could be forming.  Atmospheric conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern Caribbean sea.  This wave will continue to produce squally weather over portions of the windward and southern Leeward Islands through Sunday.

Invest 95
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands has decreased this evening.  Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become less conducive but some slow development of this disturbance is still possible during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Julio
At 11:00 pm EDT the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located about 100 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Julio is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.

Julio is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southern and central Baja Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 11:48 a.m. EDT, August 23, 2008, a 4.5 magnitude earthquake occurred approximately 148 west-southwest of Adak, AK at a depth of 33.3 miles.  No tsunami was generated and no injuries or damage was reported.  (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 23, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Light (171 new fires)
New large fires: 5
Uncontained large fires: 27
Large fires contained: 3
States with Large fires: AZ, CA, ID, KY, MT, NV, NM, OR, TN, UT, WA and WY
Warmer and drier conditions in the West as high pressure ridge builds over the area.  Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in northern Nevada and northwest Utah.  (NIFC, CAL Fire)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)