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National Situation Update: Sunday, July 13, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A ridge of high pressure will keep the Pacific Northwest generally dry with high temperatures in the 90s across western Oregon, western Washington and Idaho into Montana.   Red Flag conditions will be confined to northern California and south west Oregon but lower elevations of northern and central California will deal with afternoon temperatures from the mid 90s to just over 100 degrees. With only light winds areas of smoke and hazy skies will continue over the interior of northern California.  The southwest monsoon will produce thunderstorms from the Four Corner States to the interior areas of Southern California. Localized flash flooding is possible. The cloud cover will keep high temperatures 5 to near 15 degrees below average.
Midwest:
High pressure is ridging into the region following yesterday's cold frontal passage and will result in generally dry conditions.   On the back side of the low there will be some morning rain from the eastern Great Lakes through the Ohio River Valley.   Highs will range from the 60s in Upper Michigan to near 90 in Kansas and western Nebraska.
South:
A weakening cold front will drop southward into the region producing thunderstorm activity from west Texas to the southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are also likely across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida.  Highs will range from the low to mid 90s in most of the Southeast to near 100 in Texas.
Northeast:
The cold front moving out of the Great Lakes will produce showers and thunderstorms from Upstate New York to West Virginia.  Tonight and Monday, the showers and thunderstorms will shift to the Eastern Seaboard.   High temperatures behind the front will be in the 70s while ahead of the front highs will be in the 90s. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources).

Okmok Volcano, Alaska:

A strong explosive eruption from the Okmok Volcano in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska began at approximately 3:43 pm EDT (11:43 AM ADT) and continues at this time based on high levels of seismicity recorded at the Alaska Volcano Observatory seismic network. The ash cloud may be reaching in excess of 35,000 feet above sea level and is moving generally east and southeast from the volcano. Ash fall has been reported on eastern Umnak Island and in Dutch Harbor.
Okmok Volcano is located on the northeast end of Umnak Island in the eastern Aleutians about 65 miles southwest of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The volcano consists of a 6-mile-wide circular caldera or crater about 1600 feet deep that formed about 2000 years ago. Okmok has been frequently active in historical times producing ash clouds often accompanied by lava flows within the caldera. The most recent eruption occurred in 1997 and produced ash clouds and a lava flow that traveled about 5 miles across the caldera floor.
As reported by the Alaska State Emergency Coordination Center (SECC), nine individuals in an area considered "at risk" have been transported by a good Samaritan out of the immediate area. No other individuals are believed to be threatened. A general aviation alert has been issued based on the ash cloud.
STATE/LOCAL RESPONSE:
Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management State Emergency Coordination Center (SECC) continues to monitor the situation but does not anticipate any further action.  No injuries reported.  No requests for Federal resources have been received at this time. 
POTENTIAL FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT:
No request for Stafford Act assistance is anticipated at this time. No requests for Federal assistance at this time. FEMA Region X will continue to monitor the situation through FEMA Alaska Area Office Manager and Bothell MOC.

California Wildfires

Summary:
California has a total of 1,781 fires, 1,458 are contained (81%); 323 total active fires. There are currently 22 fire complexes that are actively threatening life and property.  There are a total of  801,726 acres burned (517,106 acres for the 10 reported fires) and 29,443 personnel assigned.

California Wildfires
Fatalities - 1; Injuries - 278
ARC Reports 6 shelters with 237 occupants (as of 5:00 p.m. EDT July 12, 2008)
Structures destroyed: 99 residences; 1 commercial; 127 outbuildings for the 10 reported fires
Structures threatened: 9,146 residences; 140 commercial; 2,507 outbuildings for the 10 reported fires
State EOC is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT; limited night shift
There are no CIKR assets of national concern reported to be threatened or impacted.
The DOT-CMC reports closures and delays are in place for State Highways 1 (Big Sur Area), 32,70 and 299.
Protective Security Advisors (PSAs) continue to coordinate with state and local contacts for impact information.
FEMA NRCC is monitoring the situation and coordinating with Region IX.
FEMA Region IX RRCC is activated to Modified Level III from 7:00 a .m. - 5:00 p.m. PDT
FEMA LNOs deployed to State EOC, NorthOps Center and SouthOps Center
Other Federal Actions
Department of Defense (DOD)
U.S. Marine Corps is providing 4 CH-46 and 2 CH-53 helicopters.
U.S. Navy is providing 2 SH-60 helicopters.
The NGB and AFRC are providing 8 MAFFS Systems and 8 MAFFS C130 Aircraft (Numbers do not include the MAFFS personnel for Guard and Reserves from WY, NC, and CO)
International
Australia and New Zealand providing 44 personnel for critical crew management roles. 
Canada providing 54 personnel.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Hurricane Bertha
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Bertha was located about 220 miles southeast of Bermuda.  Hurricane Bertha is currently nearly stationary but a drift toward the northwest is expected to begin later today and continue into tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.  Bertha is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days and Bertha is could weaken to a tropical storm later today. Based on the current warning, Bertha poses no threat to the United States.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Elida:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center Elida was located about 250 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical Storm Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A generally west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.  Further strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and Elida could become a hurricane today or tomorrow.  Based on the current warning, Elida poses no threat to the United States.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Friday July 12, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (158 new fires)
New large fires: 2
Uncontained large fires: 69
Large fires contained: 2
Acres Burned YTD - 3,024,762
State with Large fires - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia, Washington

Weather Discussion:
Hot and dry weather will continue over most of northern and central California today with a chance of dry thunderstorms over the Sierras.
Onshore flow is expected from southwest Oregon down to the mid-California coast. Southern California will see increased humidity along with widely scattered thunderstorms.
The southern Great Basin will have a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms with thundershowers for the Southwest, Southeast and Alaska. Winds should decrease over the Northwest and Montana. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)