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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West
Much of the West will be hot with record or near-record heat in the interior of California and southwest Oregon.  Temperatures will be well over 100 degrees in the Central Valley of California, southern Nevada, southeast California and southwest Arizona.

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible over extreme southeast Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and southeast Arizona.  Northeastern New Mexico may receive up to one inch in local areas.

Midwest
Severe storms may develop from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into eastern Kansas, some with strong, damaging winds and isolated large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible. Locally heavy rains and flash flooding are possible anywhere from Ohio through Kansas.

South
Showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening are forecast for the Carolinas and Georgia along with widespread tropical downpours in Texas and Florida.

Northeast
Scattered, afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will occur throughout the northeast tomorrow. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Ongoing river flooding continues along parts of the Mississippi River in Illinois and Missouri, the Rock River in Wisconsin, and the Iowa and Des Moines Rivers in Iowa. Rock River at Newville, WI is the only river at Major Flood Stage.  The river has crested and it is forecast to fall to Moderate Flood Stage on July 9, and drop to Flood Stage on July 11. Other Midwest rivers have points at or above Moderate Flood levels, but all forecast locations are currently receding. Levees are primarily stable and holding; U.S.Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) and local responders continue to monitor them.
The Mississippi River navigation system of locks and dams was fully reopened over the Independence Day holiday weekend with the exception of the Kaskaskia Lock & Dam, which will reopen around July 10.  As of Monday, July 7, the U.S. Coast Guard had opened the St. Louis Harbor to commercial vessels. (NWS, USACE)

California Wildfires

The California State Operations Center (SOC) is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT, with limited night staffing. FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at the SOC, the North Operations Center in Redding, CA, and the South Operations Center in Riverside, CA.  The State EOC, Inland Region Emergency Operation Center, Coastal Region Operations Center, and the Southern Region Operations Center are activated.
One fatality and 103 injuries are attributed to the fires. 15 counties are affected; the California Governor declared States of Emergency for 11 counties.
Current Situation: Although fires continue to burn, over 1,400 fires have been contained by State, local and federal firefighters.  A high pressure system moving into California is forecast to result in record high temperatures, low relative humidity and minimal recovery overnight.  Thunderstorm activity is predicted for the southern portion of the state on Wednesday, spreading further north and west Thursday and Friday as subtropical moisture moves into the area.  The priority of firefighting is for the protection of life, property and natural resources.
Fires: 1,781; Active Fires: 330; Acres: 601,677; Containment: 81%;
Resources Committed: Personnel: 19,233; Engines: 1,523; Crews: 410; Dozers: 293; Water Tenders: 413; Rotary Aircraft: 97; MAFFS:  8
Structures: 9,413 residences, 405 commercial, and 1,743 outbuildings are threatened; 36 residences, one commercial, and 49 outbuildings were destroyed; 5 residences and 1 outbuilding were damaged. (10 priority fires).
Evacuations: Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, and Shasta counties at this time.  Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, Santa Barbara, and Plumas counties.
Highway closures: State highways, county and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
National Guard
935 Guardsmen are supporting the firefight in California.
National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 29 air resources (17 Type 1 helicopters, 3 Type 3 helicopters, 1 RC-26, and 8 MAFFS).

Federal Support: 
6 Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS) and 8 C-130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California.
A National Incident Organization (NIMO) team is assigned as a planning and operational group.
U.S. Marine Corps is providing 6 helicopters for Wildfire support.
U.S. Navy is providing 2 helicopters for Wildfire support.
NASA is providing the Ikhana Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for firefighting support.  Tentative first mission over Northern California will be July 8, 2008.(CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX, NIFC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Bertha:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the eye of Bertha was located about 675 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 1,035 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Hurricane Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest at near 10 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, with higher gusts. Hurricane Bertha is a Category Three hurricane on the Safer-Simpson Scale.

Some fluctuations in intensity may occur today, but a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin within the next couple of days. Global models are now in fairly good agreement that Bertha will turn northward later in the forecast period. (NOAA/NHC)

Federal Actions
FEMA NRCC maintains situational awareness and is in contact with FEMA Region II, III, and IV RRCCs, NWS and NHC concerning Hurricane Bertha. FEMA Region II RRCC in New York is activated at Level III from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT through Tuesday, July 8, 2008.  Regions III and IV are monitoring.

A Region II Partial ERT-A Team of five members remains on St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands to assist in preparations for the 2008 Hurricane Season and the potential threat posed by Hurricane Bertha.

Caribbean Area Office continues to monitor the storm, and is prepared to respond should there be an impact to Puerto Rico.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical activity.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 7, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5

• Initial attack activity: Heavy (223 new fires)
• New large fires: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 70
• Large fires contained: 3

Predictive Services Discussion: Very hot and dry weather is forecast over most of the West the next few days.  Northeast flow over northern California will bring poor humidity recovery to the region with offshore flow to the coastal areas.  These conditions will move into central California by midweek.  Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the Great Basin and western Colorado.  Scattered showers should continue over the Southeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1763-DR-Iowa, Amendment #13: Effective July 7, this disaster declaration is amended to include 8 counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance).

The Governor of Michigan is requesting a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of heavy rain, flooding, and wind damage during June 6-13. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 12 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.(FEMA HQ)