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National Situation Update: Monday, March 24, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Strong gusty winds are expected over much of Montana and Wyoming today.  Sunny warm weather is forecast over Southern California and the lower elevations of the Southwest.  High temperatures will range from the 30s in the northern Rockies to the 90s in the lower Colorado River Valley and southwest Arizona.  High temperatures will peak in the 70s and low 80s in the Central Valley of California.

Midwest:
Light rain and snow showers may develop from North Dakota into the northern reaches of the Upper Midwest today as gusty southwest winds move mild air northward from the central Plains.  Snow showers or flurries could develop in parts of the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky.  High temperatures are forecast to range from near 30 in northeast Ohio to the 70s in western Kansas and south-central Nebraska; highs could reach into the 60s as far north as Pierre, S.D.

South:
Winds are expected to be gusty over the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and the Florida Peninsula.
Temperatures are expected to be well below average east of the Mississippi River with highs ranging from the 40s in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina to the low 80s in south Florida.  Red Flag Warnings are in effect through late this evening for southeast and southwest AL, central and southern GA, and north and central FL due to low relative humidity.

Northeast:
Light snow showers or flurries possible in parts of upstate New York and northern New England today.
High temperatures will range from the 20s in parts of Upstate New York and northern New England to the 50s from southern New Jersey through Virginia. (NOAA)

Warmer Ocean Could Reduce Number of Atlantic Hurricane Landfalls

A warming global ocean - influencing the winds that shear off the tops of developing storms - could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States according to new findings by NOAA climate scientists. Furthermore, the relative warming role of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans is important for determining Atlantic hurricane activity.

The article, published on January 23 in Geophysical Research Letters, uses observations to show that warming of global sea surface temperatures is associated with a secular, or sustained long-term increase, of vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased vertical wind shear coincides with a downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes.

"We looked at U.S. landfalling hurricanes because it is the most reliable Atlantic hurricane measurement over the long term," says Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami and lead author on the article. "Using data extending back to the middle nineteenth century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up. This trend coincides with an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, which could result in fewer U.S. landfalling hurricanes." For the article, Wang worked with Sang-Ki Lee of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies-University of Miami.

Observations from 1854 to 2006 show a warming of sea surface temperature occurring almost everywhere over the global ocean, with large warming in tropical regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans. Warmer waters in the tropical Pacific, Indian and North Atlantic oceans produce opposite effects upon vertical wind shear; that is, warming in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans increase vertical wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane main development region, while warming in the tropical North Atlantic decreases vertical wind shear. Overall, warming in the Pacific and Indian oceans is of greater impact and produces increased levels of vertical wind shear which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.
(Excerpt from www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080122_warmeroceans.html)

Midwest Flooding Update

State and Local Response
Illinois:

• State EOC will partially activate on March 24, 2008 with minimal manning
  
• FEMA State Liaison Officer has departed the Illinois Emergency Operations Center
  
• Counties:  19 counties declared States of Emergency
  
• Fatalities:  2 (Region V)
  
• Shelters:  3 open with 16 occupants  (IL  Incident Report #5)
  
• No requests for Federal Assistance. (Illinois SITREP #11)
  Arkansas:
  
• Arkansas Department of Emergency Management activated at Level III (monitoring), 8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT
  
• Counties:  45 affected with 37 under State Disaster Declaration
  
• Fatalities:  1
  
• Injuries:  4
  
• Missing:  1
  
• Shelters: Closed; however, feeding operations continue
  
• Joint PDAs scheduled to begin March 25, 2008 (Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB, ARC)

Indiana:

• State EOC manned 24 hours until further notice
  
• Counties:  6 affected with 4 declared States of Emergency
  
• Fatalities:  1
  
• Injuries:  8
  
• Shelters:  1 with 1 occupant
  
• State and local PDAs ongoing; no request for joint PDAs received(Incident Report #5)

Ohio:

• State EOC returned to normal operating operations, 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
  
• Counties:  7 affected with 4 declared as States of Emergency
  
• Fatalities:  2
  
• Shelters:  All shelters closed
  
• State damage assessments continue
  
• No requests for Federal Assistance (Region V, NWS, NSS, NGB, IL EOC, OEOC, NOAA)

Missouri:

• State EOC activated at Level II, 7:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. CDT
  
• Counties: 70 affected
  
• Fatalities confirmed: 5
  
• Shelters: 4 with 20 occupants  (Region VII Incident Report #11)
  
• Joint State/FEMA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will begin the week of March 25 for Individual Assistance. Public Assistance PDAs will begin the week of March 31.(EMA Sitrep as of March 22, 2008 at 10:00 a.m.)

Georgia/South Carolina Tornadoes Update:

Georgia
The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated at a Level III (Normal Operations).
An Emergency Response Team (ERT) is activated and working out of the FEMA Regional IV Office in Atlanta, Georgia for DR-1750.  A Mission assignment has been issued to General Services Administration (GSA) to locate and lease the Joint Field Office (JFO).

South Carolina
Seven confirmed tornadoes touched down throughout South Carolina late Saturday March 15, 2008.
Joint FEMA/State Preliminary Damage Assessments are being conducted and there have been no request for federal assistance.(Region IV, National Shelter System (NSS), NWS)

Salmonella Outbreak - Colorado

The CO Health and Human Services reported an outbreak of Salmonella in Alamosa County March 19, 2008.  Governor Ritter declared a State Disaster Emergency for Alamosa County.  The State EOC is activated at Level II, 7:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. MDT today.  Region VIII Liaison is deployed to the EOC; there are now 126 cases suspected, 57 cases have been confirmed; nine individuals are currently hospitalized.  No Federal assistance has been requested.(Region VIII)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 3.5 earthquake, 5 miles deep, struck 38 miles NNW of Anchorage, AK at 6:14 p.m. EDT March 23, 2008.  There have been no reports of damage or injuries.  (USGS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Texas Wildfire

• Texas EOC Activated at Level I, 24/7 (emergency operations)
• Cumulative fire information (as of 2:00 p.m. CDT 23 March, 2008)
  • Total Acres Burned:  1,026,761
  • Total Homes Threatened:  7,549
  • Total Homes Saved:  7,397
  • Total Homes Lost:  152
  • Total Homes Damaged:  36

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)