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National Situation Update: Saturday, March 22, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Current Weather

Midwest
The Midwest will see very little precipitation this weekend.  There will be some snow showers across the Great Lakes.  Flooding will continue across the Ohio and Mississippi River Basins through the weekend.

Northeast
Snow advisories are posted for parts of western Pennsylvania.

Georgia/South Carolina Tornadoes Update:

Georgia:
The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated at a Level III (Normal Operations).  There are two confirmed fatalities and 28 injuries.  Two Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers have been deployed in Fulton County; their hours are 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT.  Two building assessment teams are in Fulton County assessing damages.  The ERT is activated and is in the FEMA Regional IV Office in Atlanta, Georgia.  (GEMA, NSS, Region IV, IOF)

South Carolina:
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Partial Activation).  The cumulative damages to houses for the 11 impacted counties were: 383 with minor damage; 89 with major damage; and 85 destroyed.  The cumulative damages to businesses were: 33 with minor damage; 18 with major damage; and eight destroyed.  Joint FEMA and State PDAs are being conducted for IA and PA.  There is no request for Federal assistance.  (Region IV, SC SEOC)

Midwest Flooding Update

Current Situation
Many rivers remain in flood stage.  Rivers such as the Lower Ohio and Mississippi will continue to slowly rise over the next few days and could remain above flood stage well into the week of March 24, 2008.  No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days.

State and Local Response
Illinois:
There are two confirmed fatalities.  Currently 19 counties have state declarations.  A voluntary evacuation is in place for Grand Tower, IL, near the Big Muddy River, due to concerns over a potential levee failure.  The NSS reports four shelters open with a population of 49.  The Illinois EPA is monitoring four Waste Water Treatment Plants.  There are no requests for Federal Assistance.

Missouri:
The State EOC is activated at Level Two from 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT Daily.  There have been five confirmed fatalities.  The NSS reports seven shelters open with a population of 227.  There were 769 homes and 103-105 businesses damaged or destroyed statewide with at least 100 homes and businesses underwater in McDonald County.  The MO Department of Natural Resources is continuing to assess wastewater, drinking water and solid waste issues throughout the state.  The Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad closed three lines statewide.  The Kansas City Southern rail line is closed near Joplin and the Union Pacific St. Louis - Poplar Bluff lines are closed.  The Missouri National Guard released all mobilized National Guard personnel.  Joint State and FEMA IA PDAs will begin the week of March 24, 2008 and PA PDAs will begin the week of March 31, 2008.

Arkansas:
The State EOC is activated at Level III (Limited Activation).  There have been four confirmed injuries and there are two missing persons.  Currently 35 counties are under a State Disaster declaration with evacuations in 18 counties.  The NSS reports two shelters open with a population of four.  Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding and / or inoperable treatment systems.  The Black River is forecast to crest between this morning, March 22, 2008 and Monday, March 23, 2008.  Clay County is monitoring the Black River water levels.  If there is a levee breach on the Black River in Missouri an evacuation of approximately 3,500 people in Clay County will be required.

Indiana:
The Patoka River reached Major Flood Stage at Princeton and is continuing to rise.  The East Fork White River is expected to crest at or above Major Flood Stage at Bedford, Rivervale, Williams and Shoals over next three days.  The IN EOC is activated and is conducting 24 hour operations.  There are four counties affected and the NSS reports two shelters open with a population of 27.  There is one confirmed fatality as well as eight confirmed injuries.  Damage assessments continue.

Ohio:
No major flooding is expected and floodwaters are receding.  There were two confirmed fatalities in four counties.  The State EOC is closed and there are no requests for Federal Assistance.

Downstream Effects:
The Mississippi River at Natchez, Mississippi (Adams County) is forecast to exceed flood stage of 48.0 feet by Tuesday, March 25, 2008 and could rise an additional five feet or more by Sunday, April 6, 2008.  The Ohio River at Paducah, Kentucky (McCracken, County) is forecast to exceed 47.0 feet by Wednesday, March 26, 2008, eight feet above its flood stage. (Region V, Region VI, Region VII, NWS, NSS, NGB, ARC, NOAA)

Federal Response
FEMA Region V:
The Region V RRCC is activated at Level III with 24 hour operations continuing until 5:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, March 22, 2008.  State Liaison Officers are deployed to the Illinois and Indiana State EOCs.

FEMA Region VI:
The Region VI RRCC is activated at Level III from 7:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m. CDT.  State Liaison Officers are deployed to the Arkansas and Texas State EOCs.  Six PA PDA and Three IA PDA Teams are scheduled to begin Joint PDAs in Arkansas Tuesday, March 25, 2008.

FEMA Region VII:
The Region VII RRCC is activated at Level III from 7:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m. CDT.  The FIRST Chicago is deployed to Cape Girardeau.  A State Liaison Officer is deployed to the Missouri State EOC.  (Region V, Region VI, Region VII, FEMA HQ)

Spring Drought Outlook

The drought outlook indicates continued general improvement in the Southeast, although some reservoirs are unlikely to recover before summer.  Winter precipitation chipped away at both the western and southeastern drought. On the U.S. Drought Monitor, extreme drought coverage dropped from nearly 50 percent in mid-December to less than 20 percent in the Southeast for March.
Overall, the Southeast had near-average rainfall during the winter with some areas wetter than average. Nevertheless, lingering water supply concerns and water restrictions continue in parts of the region.

Drought is expected to continue in parts of the southern Plains despite some recent heavy rain. Parts of Texas received less than 25 percent of normal rainfall in the winter, leading 165 counties to enact burn bans by mid-March. Seasonal forecasts for warmth and dryness suggest drought will expand northward and westward this spring.(Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080320_springoutlook.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On March 21, 2008 the Joint Field Offices supporting FEMA-1737-DR in Urbandale, IA and FEMA-1739-DR in Lincoln, NE were closed.  (FEMA HQ)