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National Situation Update: Friday, March 21, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Current Weather

Northeast
Low pressure will intensify as it moves toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  Combined with high pressure off the Southeast Coast this will create a pressure difference resulting in strong winds Friday from the Hudson Valley into New England.  High wind watches are posted from southern Maine to southern New Hampshire.  Wind gusts from 30-40 mph are expected around New York City and from 40-50 mph in southern New England with some gusts over 50 mph in northern New England.

Midwest
An area of three to six inches of snow is expected from southeast North Dakota into northern Ohio by early Saturday morning, March 22, 2008.  Parts of southern Wisconsin and extreme northern Illinois may get over 10 inches of snow.

Georgia/South Carolina Tornadoes Update:

Georgia:
The Georgia EOC is at Level III, conducting normal operations from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT (M-F).  Joint Federal and State PDAs are continuing, with a request for Joint Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for Burke County.  To date there are 136 residences in Butts County and 17 residences in Floyd County damaged.  The breakdown in Floyd County is as follows: five residences destroyed, seven residences having major damage and five residences having minor damage.  Small Business Administration teams are currently working with onsite PDA teams.  There have been two confirmed fatalities, one each in Polk and Floyd Counties, and 28 injuries.

The NSS reports one shelter with 24 occupants opened at the Central Park Recreational Center in Fulton County. (GEMA, NSS, Region IV)

South Carolina:
The National Weather Service has confirmed that there were seven tornadoes with 17 touchdowns across the state.  Along with the tornadoes intense hail and high winds occurred throughout Saturday, March 15, 2008.  The South Carolina State EOC is activated at Level IV (Partial Activation) from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. EDT (M-F). 

Joint PDAs are being conducted and no requests for federal assistance have been made.  To date there are 366 houses with minor damage, 89 houses with major damage and 70 houses destroyed.  (Region IV, SC SEOC)

Midwest Flooding Update

Current Situation
Many rivers will remain at flood stage through March 21, 2008.  However, rivers such as the Lower Ohio and Mississippi will continue to slowly rise over the next few days, and could remain above flood stage well into the week of March 24, 2008.  Fortunately no significant rainfall is expected for the next few days.

State and Local Response
Illinois:
There are 19 counties with State declarations across the state and the National Shelter System (NSS) reports four shelters open with a population of 86.

Missouri:
Several rivers in southwest Missouri crested at record levels with similar crests expected along waterways in southern and eastern Missouri.  The biggest concern is the continued rise on the Meramec River, as well as an anticipated rise on the Mississippi River.  Clay County, Arkansas EMA continues to report flood water from the levee break near Neelyville (Butler County, MO) may move south into Clay County, AR.  The nearest downstream town is Moark, AR, and the flood risk will be between the Black River and areas west to Highway 67. The Peerless Park levee was reported breached in St. Louis County and is being monitored.

The State EOC is activated 24/7at Level II.  There have been 769 homes and 80 businesses reported as damaged or destroyed statewide with at least 100 homes and businesses underwater in McDonald County.  There have been five confirmed fatalities.  The MO Department of Natural Resources is assessing wastewater, drinking water and solid waste issues throughout the state.  The Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad closed three lines statewide.  Kansas City Southern rail line is closed near Joplin and the Union Pacific St. Louis - Poplar Bluff lines are also closed.

Currently the NSS reports there are nine shelters open with a population of 263.  Two (2) truckloads of water were delivered to the Piedmont Bank in Piedmont on March 20, 2008.

Arkansas:
There are four counties monitoring water levels on the Black River due to flooding conditions from the breached levee in Neelyville, Missouri. Four injuries have been confirmed and there are still two missing persons.  Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding or inoperable treatment systems.  Currently 18 counties have reported damage to homes, including; Baxter (75 Minor, 40 Major, 49 Uninhabitable and 30 inaccessible), Fulton (120 with water damage) and Carroll Counties (6 homes damaged).  In 15 counties, there are evacuations affecting between 184 - 265 people in 39 - 49 homes, as well as the Buffalo Resort and Porterfield Estates.  There is one shelter open with a population of 2 being reported by the NSS.

Indiana:
Most major rivers and creeks in central Indiana have crested.  The majority of waterways in southern Indiana continue to rise.  The State EOC is activated and is conducting 24x7 operations.  There were 26 water rescues reported in eight counties.  The State reports that four counties are currently affected and the Indiana National Guard deployed vehicles, personnel and sandbag machines to armories in Dubois and Vanderburgh Counties.  The State is continuing to conduct damage assessments.  There has been one injury reported and the NSS reports there are four shelters open with a total population of 11.

Ohio:
No major flooding is expected, but several rivers will rise to the Moderate Flood Stage.  The rivers that are currently above flood stage are cresting, or are expected to crest today, March 21, 2008.  However, the Scioto at Prospect and Piketon, and the Ohio River below Marietta, OH are forecast to crest, March 22-23, 2008; minor flooding is forecast.

The State EOC is activated and reports four counties affected.  Primary State and US highways throughout central and southeastern Ohio have been impacted resulting in 74 closures and 21 restrictions.  State PDAs are being conducted.  Two fatalities have been confirmed.  According to the NSS there are five shelters open with the population numbers unreported.  (Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, NOAA)

Federal Response
FEMA Region V:
The RRCC is activated 24X7 to Level III and a State Liaison Officer is deployed to the Illinois EOC.  The FIRST Chicago arrived in Jefferson City, MO at 9:00 p.m. EDT, March 20, 2008, and will meet with the FCO on Friday morning, March 21, 2008.

FEMA Region VI:
The RRCC is activated to Level III and the hours of operation are 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT.  The region deployed State Liaison Officers to the Arkansas and Texas State EOCs.  On Tuesday, March 25, 2008, six Public Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) Teams and Three Individual Assistance PDA Teams will begin Joint PDAs in Arkansas.

FEMA Region VII:
The RRCC is activated to Level III with ESF-6 activated.  Hours of operation are 6:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. CDT.  The region deployed a State Liaison Officer to the Missouri State EOC.  (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, FEMA HQ)

NOAA Releases Spring Outlook

Major floods striking America's heartland this week offer a preview of the spring seasonal outlook, according to NOAA's National Weather Service. Several factors will contribute to above-average flood conditions, including record rainfall in some states and snow packs, which are melting and causing rivers and streams to crest over their banks.

Spring Flood Outlook
Above-normal flood potential (indicated in red) is evident in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England, and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho.

Heavy winter snow combined with recent rain indicates parts of Wisconsin and Illinois should see minor to moderate flooding, with as much as a 20 to 30 percent chance of major flooding on some rivers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

Current snow depth in some areas of upstate New York and New England is more than a foot greater than usual for this time of the year, which increases flood potential in the Connecticut River Valley.

Locations in the mountains of Colorado and Idaho have 150 to 200 percent of average water contained in snowpack leading to a higher than normal flood potential.

Snowfall has been normal or above normal across most of the West this winter; however, preexisting dryness in many areas will prevent most flooding in this region. Runoff from snow pack is expected to significantly improve stream flows compared to last year for the West. (Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080320_springoutlook.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2756-OK was issued at 12:10 a.m. EDT, March 21, 2008, for the Quinlan Fire in Woodward County near the Major County line, OK.  The fire started March 20, 2008, with 0 percent containment.  At least 200 residents have evacuated voluntarily and 75 - 200 homes are threatened.  State highways 412 and 281 are closed.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck in the Xinjiang-Xizang Border area of China at 6:30 p.m. EDT March 20, 2008.  There are no reports of casualties.  The initial earthquake has been followed by several after shocks ranging from 5.0 to 5.4.  (USGS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On March 20, 2008 the President signed a Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1750-DR for the State of Georgia for Severe Storms and Tornadoes that occurred March 14-16, 2008.  The declaration designates Individual Assistance for Fulton County and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  The FCO is Elizabeth Turner of the National FCO Program.

Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-1746- DR for Kentucky was issued March 20, 2008.  The amendment adds 16 counties for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)