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National Situation Update: Monday, March 3, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
A cold front will move eastward today, threatening portions of the southern U.S. with potentially severe storms and tornadoes.  This front will shift from southeast Oklahoma and eastern Texas to southern Illinois, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and Mississippi by the evening.  Gusty southerly winds will precede the cold front while strong northerly winds will follow it.  To the rear of the cold front heavy, wet snow is likely to develop over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.  The peak of the storms intensity is forecast to occur over southeast Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. 

Tornado watches are in effect until 9:00 a.m. CST for numerous counties in northeast and central Texas; however, the Tornado Watches for central Oklahoma and Arkansas have expired.

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until late tonight for south and south central Texas.  The combination of strong gusty winds and low relative humidity will result in dangerous fire behavior.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7:00 p.m. EST for northeast Georgia.  The dry fuel conditions, combined with southeastern winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 35 mph, will create potential fire condtions as well.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the 30s over central Oklahoma and north central Texas to the 80s at the southern tip of Texas and much of the Florida Peninsula.

Midwest
A storm center strengthening over the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast for the Midwest from Missouri to Michigan.  Numerous Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through this afternoon for northeastern Kansas, Wisconsin, east and northwestern Iowa, south and south central Missouri, west central Illinois, northeastern Indiana, and northwestern Ohio.

Snow is expected from far southeast Kansas to Wisconsin, with most accumulation developing over southwest and east central Missouri.  Snow may change to heavy freezing rain and/or sleet for portions of southeast Missouri and central Illinois.

Heavy rains, with flooding potential, are anticipated for southern Missouri and southern Illinois; lighter rain reaching into southeast Michigan.  Flood watches remain in effect until Tuesday, March 4, 2008 for much of central Illinois, most of Indiana, southwestern Ohio and a small portion of northeastern Kentucky.

Highs will range from the teens in northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota to the 70s in eastern Tennessee.

West
Some rain and mountain snow showers are forecast for parts of the Northwest, primarily southwest Oregon to northwest Montana.  Further south, rain and snow is expected over eastern New Mexico throughout the day. 

Early morning Santa Ana winds are anticipated over Southern California.  High Wind Warnings are in effect for southwestern California.  Winds may gust to 60 mph while higher elevations could experience gusts to 75 mph; however, the Santa Ana winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon.

Northeast
Northern New York and New England may experience some light freezing rain or snow today while later this evening light rain is possible in western New York and western Pennsylvania.

Strong southerly flow will raise temperatures well above average for early March, with highs ranging in the 30s for Maine, northern New Hampshire and far northern Vermont, to the 70s in south central Virginia and southwest West Virginia.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Leadville, Colorado

Update - Work continues on relieving the threat of backed-up water in the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel.  Last week, the Enviromental Protection Agency began pumping 180 gallons a minute from a shaft west of Leadville to ease pressure in the underground pool.  The Bureau of Reclamation experts have been studying the tunnel and do not believe it is a threat at this time.  The agency is conducting a risk assessment on the tunnel, which could take months. A long-term solution has yet to be finalized.  Various plans are in the works to ease pressure in the tunnel, from pumping water out to repairing other tunnels that draw water from the same area.  (NICC Daily Sector Pulse March 2, 2008)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

On Sunday, March 02, 2008 at 9:37 p.m. EST, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck in the Kepulauan Mentawai Region of Indonesia, about 145 km (90 miles) south southwest of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia and 325 km (200 miles) west northwest of Bengkulu, Sumatra, Indonesia at a depth of  21.7 miles.  There have been no reports of damage or injury and a tsunami warning is not expected. (USGS/NEIC)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Indiana: Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments for Public Assistance are on-going in Indiana for Allen, Benton, Clay, Greene, Huntington, Newton, Pulaski, Starke and White Counties as a result of flooding in January and February 2008, and continuing.(FEMA HQ)