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National Situation Update: Sunday, March 2, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A vigorous cold front will move eastward today from the Plains toward the western Great Lakes and the mid-Mississippi Valley. As a result of very mild air ahead of the front, frozen precipitation will be limited to sleet and freezing rain from northern Minnesota to Upper Michigan. The remainder of the region will see increasing showery rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain developing late in the day from Kansas into the mid-Mississippi Valley.

Colder air arriving behind the front will begin to change the showery rain to snow from northwest Kansas to eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Overnight tonight and Monday morning the cold front and the colder air will continue to advance eastward and southward; rain could change to a band of heavy wet snow from northeast Kansas to northern Illinois and the counties on either side of Lake Michigan.

Monday into Tuesday the southern half of Missouri and the Ohio Valley may see heavy two-to-five inch rains, followed by accumulating snow. A rapidly intensifying area of low-pressure, developing along the eastward-moving front, will track from northern Alabama to West Virginia and then to New Brunswick in the Canadian Maritimes, while colder air wraps in behind the storm.

Moderate flooding will continue along the Illinois River today and the risk of ice jams on rivers will persist as colder air returns.  The flood potential is expected to increase again early next week as melting snow combines with rainfall.  Renewed flooding of rivers, creeks, and low lying areas is possible.

South
The Southern U.S. will experience temperatures ranging from a few degrees above average along the southeast coast to between 10 and 15 degrees above average in the southern Plains. Highs today will range from the 60s in the Carolinas to the 80s in the Rio Grande Valley.

Rain and thunderstorms will increase across Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon. Thunderstorms may turn severe in this area later this evening and tonight, possibly producing damaging wind gusts, hail and some tornadoes.

This evening through Monday, a strong cold front will move into the lower Mississippi Valley, bringing the possibility of heavy locally flooding rain over eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, western Tennessee, northeast Texas, and northern Mississippi. Rain totals could reach four to five inches. The threat for severe thunderstorms, including damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, will increase from eastern Texas to Mississippi.

As colder air moves into the southern Plains behind the front, rain could change to heavy snow later Monday and Monday night from the Red River Valley along the Texas-Oklahoma border to northwest Arkansas. Low pressure will develop in Louisiana Monday night and move northward into the eastern Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening.

A strong cold front will move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley Monday night into the southeast Coast by Wednesday morning. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and downpours of over an inch will precede the front. Strong gusty northwest winds will push much colder temperatures in behind the front. At the same time, some snow will follow the heavy rain across eastern Arkansas, the Tennessee Valley, and the southern Appalachians later Tuesday into Wednesday.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. EST today for Deep South Texas.  Strong southeasterly winds will develop as low pressure deepens in the Texas Panhandle.

Northeast
A few snow showers will linger from Upstate New York to Maine today.  Highs will range from the 20s along the Canadian border to the low 60s in the southern Virginias. Above-average highs Monday will range from the mid to upper 40s in Boston and Albany to the mid to upper 60s in Washington and Richmond.

Monday night and Tuesday a new approaching cold front will move southeastward through New York, northern Pennsylvania, and New England.  This front will be accompanied by rain, then turn to freezing rain and sleet as colder air seeps in. Simultaneously, a potent storm will move into the region from the eastern Ohio Valley, producing heavy, one to three inch rains from Pennsylvania and West Virginia into New England later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Some severe thunderstorms could develop in the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday. The rain, combined with snow melt, could produce flooding problems across parts of New York and New England. Colder air rushing in behind the storm midweek could turn the rain to snow before the storm ends.

West
Snow will linger over the Rockies today, especially across Colorado and northern New Mexico, as the front exits eastward into the central states. Gusty winds will shift southward into Southern California and the Desert Southwest. Highs today will range from the 20s and 30s across Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado to the 70s and low 80s in the Desert Southwest.

A new front will enter the Northwest early in the week with more mountain snow and gusty winds.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. MST tonight for the southeast California deserts and the Lower Colorado River Valley due to strong gusty winds and low relative humidity.
A Red Flag Warning is also in effect from 11:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. MST tonight for all of southwestern New Mexico and far West Texas. High wind and low relative humidity is expected through this evening. Conditions will improve as winds decrease after sunset. (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Alaska: On Sunday, March 02, 2008 at 12:11 a.m. EST a magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck in the Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands area of Alaska, about 111 miles west of Adak, AK and 1284 miles west southwest of Anchorage, AK at a reported depth of 21.6 miles.  There have been no reports of damage or injury and a tsunami warning is not expected. This earthquake follows a series of multiple earthquakes ranging from 3.1 - 5.2 magnitude occurring in the same region over the last 30 hours. (USGS/NEIC, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Indiana: Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments for Public Assistance are on-going in Indiana for Allen, Benton, Clay, Greene, Huntington, Newton, Pulaski, Starke and White Counties as a result of flooding in January and February 2008, and continuing. (FEMA HQ)