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National Situation Update: Saturday, March 1, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Highs today will be 10 to 20 degrees above average across the Plains, ranging from the 50s in western North Dakota to the 60s and low 70s in Nebraska and Kansas. Gusty southerly winds will accompany these warm temperatures.  From the Mississippi Valley eastward, temperatures will be slower to rebound, ranging from the 20s along the Canadian border to the 40s and low 50s in Kentucky.

Tomorrow, a new vigorous cold front will be moving eastward from the Plains toward the western Great Lakes and the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Due to very mild air ahead of the front, frozen precipitation will be limited to some snow, sleet and freezing rain from the Dakotas to northern Michigan.  Monday into Tuesday the southern half of Missouri and the Ohio Valley could receive one to three inches of rain, followed by heavy accumulations of snow, as a rapidly intensifying area of low-pressure develops along the eastward-moving front and tracks from northern Alabama to the St. Lawrence Valley. 

River conditions continue to improve in Illinois and Indiana, with most rivers out of the Moderate Flood Stage; however, Flood Warnings are still in effect for parts of these states.  Some river flooding will continue across the area through the week; the risk of ice jams on rivers will persist as colder air returns.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 7:00 p.m. EST for southwest Kansas.

South
The South will experience much warmer weather this weekend with temperatures ranging from a few degrees above average along the Southeast coast to between 10 and 20 degrees above average in the southern Plains.  Tomorrow, high temperatures will range from the 60s in the Carolinas to the 90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley.  Rain and thunderstorms will increase across Oklahoma and Texas tomorrow and possibly turn severe, producing damaging wind gusts, hail and some tornadoes. 

On Monday, as a strong cold front heads into the lower Mississippi Valley, heavy locally flooding rain could occur over Arkansas, western Tennessee, eastern Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Rain totals could reach 4 to 5 inches in spots.  The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase across these states as well.  As colder air moves into the southern Plains behind the front, rain could change to freezing rain, sleet and snow across Oklahoma, northern Texas and western Arkansas. 

Low pressure will develop in Louisiana Monday night and move northward into the eastern Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. A strong cold front will move eastward from the lower Mississippi Valley Monday night to the Southeast Coast by Tuesday night. Severe thunderstorms and downpours will precede the front.  Much colder temperatures and possibly accumulating snow will follow heavy rain across Arkansas, the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians later Tuesday into Wednesday. 

Red Flag Warnings are in effect from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. EST today for most of the Florida Big Bend and until 8:00 p.m. for northwest Oklahoma.  Fire activity continues in Texas.

Northeast
Snow will shift from New York, Pennsylvania and North Jersey into New England today as low pressure tracks from Lake Ontario to off the southeast Maine coast.  Four to eight inches of snow is forecast for southern New England, while Boston, Cape Cod and the shores of Rhode Island and Connecticut will receive only one to three inches.  As the storm exits into Nova Scotia tonight and Sunday, snow totals across parts of Maine and New Hampshire, where the snow duration will be longest, could exceed 12 inches.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. EST today for south central and southeast Virginia due to strong winds and low humidity.

West
A cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest today with locally strong winds, mountain snow and rain in the lower-elevations.  Snow will linger over the Rockies tomorrow, especially across Colorado, as the front exits eastward into the central states.

Strong gusty winds will move southward through California and the Nevada Great Basin. Southern California could experience moderate Santa Ana winds by tomorrow morning.  A second front will enter the Northwest early next week with more mountain snow and gusty winds.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Suppression Efforts in Texas

The Governor has certified a total of 216 counties in Texas currently threatened by extreme fire hazard.  Windy conditions and a lack of precipitation have dried grass and other vegetation across the state, posing significant fire danger. As of February 28, 2008 the total cumulative fire activity is 510,422 acres burned, 2052 homes threatened, 49 homes lost and 35 homes damaged.

Most fires throughout the State are contained.  The Glass Fire, near the Glasscock / Sterling County line, has burned 220,000 acres and broke containment yesterday, but two type1 helicopters were able to stop the spread of the fire, which is still burning.

The Texas Forest Service initiated the Southeastern and South Central Fire Compacts, mutual aid agreements between state forestry agencies that allow states to share personnel and equipment and minimize the fire fighting burden on any one state during periods of high fire occurrence.  There are currently 520 people from 25 states outside Texas that are participating in the response, along with 282 interagency personnel from Texas.  Numerous helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, bulldozers, and engines have been brought in to assist, including six UH-60 Blackhawk Helicopters from Texas Military Forces. Texas Forest Service Type I Helicopters are pre-positioned in five Texas cities/towns. 

TX SOC is at Level I / Emergency Condition (highest level) in support of the wildfires. The Lone Star Type II Incident Management Team is located at the incident command post in Granbury, TX. FEMA continues to assist with Preliminary Damage Assessments in affected areas. (Texas SOC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Tennessee: Major Disaster Declaration 1745-DR (dated February 7, 2008) was amended February 29, 2008 to include Fentress County for Public Assistance for severe storms, tornadoes, straight-line winds and flooding in Tennessee February 5-6, 2008.  (FEMA HQ)

Arkansas: Major Disaster Declaration 1744-DR (dated February 7, 2008) amendment number six appoints Kenneth M. Riley, of FEMA, to act as the Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) and terminates the appointment of Philip E. Parr as FCO for this disaster. This Amendment was effective February 27, 2008.  (FEMA HQ)