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National Situation Update: Sunday, December 2, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Mudslide and Flash Flooding Concerns Ease for California

Rain in the southern California canyons ended early Saturday morning and flash flood watches and warnings have expired, easing the threat of mudslides for Orange County, as well as flooding for Ventura and San Diego counties.

As of 10:30 a.m. PST Saturday morning, the Orange County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) deactivated.  The OES Southern Regional Emergency Operation Center (REOC) and the OES State Operations Center (SOC) have also deactivated.

All voluntary evacuations have been lifted for Modjeska, Williams, Trabuco and Silverado Canyons. These areas are currently open to residents only and there is a Law Enforcement presence providing traffic control.  The La Jolla Indian Reservation evacuations near Mount Palomar in San Diego County are still in place, but are expected to be lifted as soon as the roadways are clear.  The Red Cross emergency shelter at El Modena High School in Orange County is now closed. 

The forecast for the next week calls for clear skies through Thursday with the possibility for light rain beginning Friday and extending through the weekend. (FEMA MOC-Bothell, Pasadena JFO, EOC, Media sources)

Significant National Weather

West
Two intense storms will strike the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and Monday.  The first storm on Sunday will bring wind gusts as high as 80 mph at the headlands/beaches and over the coastal range.  The second storm will hit Monday, bringing wind gusts up to 100 mph at the headlands.  Inland, Seattle and Portland could experience 50 mph gusts.  One to two inches of rain is forecast for Seattle and Portland today and Monday.  In the Cascades, the avalanche risk will be extremely high.  Heavy snow in the coastal mountains will change to torrential rain, and, by late Monday, could cause flooding ranging from two to eight inches in the valleys.  Heavy snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain will spread eastward across central and eastern Washington. Heavy snow will also develop from northeast Oregon to northwest Montana in the Blue Mountains and northern Rockies.

Midwest
The cross-country storm will move from the central Plains to Lake Huron Sunday as the precipitation diminishes and then ends from west to east across the Plains and Midwest.  In the storm's wake, snow, mixed with some sleet, will reach five to ten inches from the eastern Dakotas to northern Michigan. South of the snow and sleet, icing will occur from Nebraska and Iowa to the southern Great Lakes.  Heavy snow will continue to fall over upper Michigan Sunday while only light snow is expected over Wisconsin, Minnesota and northern Iowa.  Sleet and freezing rain will linger over northern lower Michigan, transitioning to rain across southern lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley.  Some lake effect snow will provide additional accumulations in the wake of the storm for parts of Michigan, northwest Indiana and eventually northeast Ohio.  After a quiet Monday region-wide, a new low pressure system will move southeastward from the Dakotas to West Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday, producing light snow across the northern Plains, northern Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Northeast
As the cross-country storm from the Southwest and Midwest gradually shifts into the Northeast Sunday and Monday, a wintry mix will change to rain in western and southern Pennsylvania, central and southern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island, but could stay frozen over northeast Pennsylvania, central and eastern upstate New York, most of southern New England and all northern New England.  A secondary low will form off the Jersey shore Sunday night, helping to keep the cold air in place across the Hudson River Valley and most of New England.  The secondary low will rapidly intensify as it slowly moves from New Jersey to western Nova Scotia Monday and Tuesday, bringing heavy snow to Vermont, New Hampshire, northern Massachusetts and much of Maine. Accumulations could reach ten to twenty inches by early Tuesday.  Strong cold winds over the Northeast early next week will produce lake effect snow in northwest Pennsylvania and parts of upstate New York.

South
A cold front will sweep eastward and southward across the region this weekend.  Rainfall could locally reach the half-to-one-inch range in Arkansas and Tennessee, but otherwise the showers and thunderstorms will tend to be light. Minimal severe weather is expected.  Little relief to current drought conditions is expected.  Rain is expected to end by Monday or Tuesday and mild temperatures will follow.  High temperatures will range from the 50s and low 60s in the Carolinas, northwest Texas and northern Oklahoma to the 70s and 80s across central and eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, south Georgia and Florida. (NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No current tropical activity.  (NWS National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, USN Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

As of 3:00 p.m. PST, December 01, 2007, the Jack Fire in California has burned 855 acres and is 50% contained.  There have been no reports on the other major fires. (InciWeb)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)