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National Situation Update: Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest:  A clipper system bringing gusty winds and snow will move into the Great Lakes from the Great Plains today, November 28, 2007.  The National Weather Service issued a snow and blowing snow advisory for parts of northwest and north central North Dakota, from Tuesday night, November 27, 2007 and Wednesday morning, November 28, 2007.  Forecasters anticipate a cold front moving from west to east bringing winds up to 40 mph and up to 4 inches of snow.
 
West:  Another Pacific storm system will sweep toward the Northwest Wednesday, November 28, 2007 pushing rain into western Washington and western Oregon, and snow into the Cascades.  Snow levels will probably drop to 1000 or 1500 feet by late in the day in the Washington Cascades.  Snow will move east of the Cascades all the way to the Bitterroots late Wednesday and Wednesday night, November 28, 2007.

In Southern California, Santa Ana winds are expected to persist through Wednesday morning, November 28, 2007. Peak gusts are forecast to be near 50 mph.

A Red Flag Warning will be in effect starting at 3:00 am PST through 6:00 pm PST, Wednesday, November 28, 2007 due to strong gusty winds and low relative humidity.

Areas of northeast winds 20 to 30 mph are forecast to develop from late Tuesday, November 27, 2007 into Wednesday, November 28, 2007, with local gusts to 55 mph through and below the passes and canyons. Winds will decrease late Wednesday afternoon.

Humidity will fall below 10 percent by midday Wednesday mainly on coastal mountain slopes and below passes and canyons before slowly recovering Wednesday night.

The areas affected include: Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Ventura Counties.

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are expected. A combination of strong winds and low relative humidity will bring the potential for rapid fire growth.    (NWS, Media Sources)

More Dry Winds Forecast In California

Forecasters warned of a new round of Santa Ana winds they fear could fan further fires across Southern California, while authorities concluded that a destructive Malibu blaze started over the weekend at a popular hangout in a canyon above the city.

The remnants of the nearly 8-square-mile Malibu blaze were fully contained by the evening of Tuesday, November 27, 2007 as the National Weather Service issued "Red Flag" warnings for fire danger from 3:00 am until 6:00 pm Wednesday, November 28, 2007 in parts of Los Angeles County.

The warning was extended to the northwest in Ventura County because of predicted strong winds overnight and low humidity.  Fire weather watches were issued for much of the rest of the region to the east and southeast, including San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange and San Diego counties.  The dry winds could produce gusts as high as 50 mph in and below some canyons and passes, the Weather Service said. The winds were expected to die by midday Wednesday, but humidity levels could remain low into Thursday, November 29, 2007.

Investigators found "substantial evidence" and determined the weekend blaze in Malibu began early Saturday at an area known locally as "the cave," said a spokesman for the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department.  Authorities have not said whether the blaze was set intentionally, and the spokesman called on witnesses to help with the investigation.  The area around the cave was sealed off Sunday, and sheriff's deputies, working with bloodhounds, patrolled the area close by.

In all, the wildfire destroyed 53 homes, 33 outbuildings, one mobile home and 37 vehicles. Another 34 homes and 11 outbuildings were damaged. No one was seriously injured.

Last month, powerful Santa Ana winds fanned brush fires in seven counties that scorched a total of 800 square miles and destroyed 2,196 homes.   (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

U.S. All But Spared By Hurricanes

Despite alarming predictions, the U.S. came through a second straight hurricane season virtually unscathed, raising fears among emergency planners that they will be fighting public apathy and overconfidence when they warn people to prepare for next year.

Friday marks the official close of the Atlantic Hurricane season, so unless a storm forms in the next few days, only one hurricane - and a minor one at that - will have hit the U.S. during the June-to-November period. Mexico and Central America, however, were struck by a record two top-scale Category 5 storms.

The preliminary total for the season: 14 named storms, five of them hurricanes, two of them major.
That was less activity than the government predicted before the season started, and stands in stark contrast to 2004 and 2005, when the U.S. was hit by one devastating storm after another, including Hurricane Katrina.

Forecasters and emergency managers warned that one result of the good year for the country may be increased skepticism when they urge people to stock up on food and draw up their hurricane evacuation plans for next year.  "Now that we've gone a couple of years without major hurricanes will the public be more apathetic before the next hurricane season? The answer is absolutely," said the director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. "The further we get away from these types of events ... the more complacent people become, and that's the challenge we have to continue to fight."

Similarly, the president of the Insurance Information Institute, said the industry saw about a 20 percent increase in the number of flood policies sold in Gulf Coast states in the two years after Katrina. But about one in five new policies is not being renewed, he said. "People believe they've rode out the worst of the storm, so to speak," he said. "Nothing could be further from the truth."  He warned that the failure of homeowners to renew their policies is "a tragedy in the making."

The season's 14 named storms were on the low end of the 13 to 17 named storms government scientists predicted. The five hurricanes didn't reach the seven to 10 forecast. The two major hurricanes were also below the three to five predicted.

Humberto, a Category 1 storm that hit Texas and Louisiana in September, was the first hurricane to strike the U.S. in two years. It was blamed for one death and $30 million in damage.  A hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the season was relatively quiet largely because La Nina, a cooling of the water in the Pacific that normally boosts the formation of hurricanes, had weaker-than-expected effects.

The government's 2006 preseason forecast proved overly pessimistic as well. Scientists predicted 13 to 16 named storms, eight to 10 of them hurricanes, with four to six of them major. Instead, there were nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major.

The hurricane forecaster said that this marks the second "near normal" season in a row. However, storm activity tends to go in cycles, and he said the Atlantic is still believed to be in a more active hurricane period that began in 1995.

Forecasters underestimated the 2005 season, which proved the busiest on record, with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. That year brought Katrina, the costliest natural disaster in American history.

Despite the predictions for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, the hurricane forecaster said the government's forecasts are still valuable, stressing that they remind coastal residents they need to be prepared.
"Generally our forecasts have been very good," he said.

A representative of the Florida Division of Emergency Management said emergency managers don't base stockpiles or hurricane preparations on the government's forecast. Instead, he said, they have standing contracts for ice, meals and other perishables, and they can call on the suppliers when they need the items.   (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting U.S. interests.   (NWS National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, USN Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Tuesday, November 27, 2007 at 06:50 am EST a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck 40 miles south-southeast of Kira Kira, San Cristobal, Solomon Islands.  There was no Tsunami generated as a result of this event.

Elsewhere, there was no significant earthquake activity affecting U.S. interests.(USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Corral Fire, Malibu, CA

• As of 6:00 pm PST, November 27, 2007, the Corral Fire had burned over 4,900 acres and is 100 percent contained. 
• There were a total of 80 structures destroyed, including 53 residences.
• At the incident's peak, 10,000 to 14,000 people were evacuated; all evacuations were lifted by 8:00 pm PST, Sunday, November 25, 2007.
• There were eight firefighter injuries and no civilian injuries resulting from the fire.

Fire Resources Update:

• Based on the fire weather watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, CAL FIRE Southern Operations Center will pre-position additional resources, effective 0800 hours on 11/27/07, in the following locations:
  • Los Angeles County
  • Ventura County
  • Santa Barbara County
  • Freedom Park/Camarrillo Mobilization area
  • San Diego County
  • San Bernardino County (Owens Valley area) (CA OES)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)