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National Situation Update: Saturday, November 10, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West
A series of Pacific storms will result in heavy rain and mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest this weekend.  Snow levels will fall from 5,500 feet to 3,500 feet in the Washington Cascades and from 7,000 feet to 5,500 feet in the Siskiyou Mountains of northern California.  Highs will range from the 40s and 50s in the Pacific Northwest to the 70s and 80s in the Desert Southwest.  Light rain showers are expected in southern California Sunday night, but amounts will be less than those known to cause debris flow or mud slides in recently burned areas.  Winds will increase across southern California on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in an increased fire danger.

Midwest
A warm front may produce a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest and lower Great Lakes area on Sunday.  High temperatures will run from 10 to 20 degrees above average across the Plains this weekend, ranging from the 50s in North Dakota to the 70s and low 80s in Kansas.

Northeast
An area of weak low pressure moving along the east coast overnight will gain strength on Saturday, and could bring wind gusts of 40 mph to Long Island and into the Gulf of Maine.  Light snow and/or rain showers will linger across parts of southern New York, southern New England and much of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday.  Temperatures over the weekend will range from the 30s and 40s over northern New England to the upper 40s and 50s in Virginia.

South
An area of high pressure in the southeast will continue to minimize chances for significant rainfall over the next few days.  High temperatures will be seasonably warm over the south-central states this weekend.  The next chance for rain across the South will be on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfires Support Update

Federal assistance efforts continue throughout Southern California, with concentration on debris removal and fire mitigation opportunities for declared counties.  Firefighting resources are rapidly being demobilized - reduction of firefighting personnel from 1,221 to 610 within the last 24 hours.  The American Red Cross (ARC) reports one ARC managed shelter remains open with a total population of 76 individuals. (JFO Situation Status Summary, Pasadena, CA)

Southern California Coordination BAER

The U.S. Forest Service and the Department of Interior have established Interagency Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams to conduct ground and aerial reconnaissance on eight fires. These teams are made up of specialists that will survey and assess the burned areas and develop emergency treatment plans for each of the recent Southern California wildfires.

The BAER teams consist of resource specialists such as Hydrologists, Soil Scientists, Geologists, Biologists and Engineers with experience working on BAER teams throughout California and the Western United States.

The BAER teams will ensure a comprehensive approach and coordinated federal and state efforts, to minimize the effects of post-fire flooding, erosion and debris flow; and maximize available resources.  (InciWeb - Wildland Fire and Incident Information System)

Predictive Tools Protect California Burn Areas from Debris Flow and Floods

NOAA's  National Weather Service and the U. S. Geological Survey have jointly developed a debris flow and flash flood warning system that will help protect Southern Californians from potentially devastating debris flows-commonly known as mud slides- and flash floods in and around burn areas created by the recent wildfires.  According to the director of the National Weather Service, moderate amounts of rainfall on a burned area can lead to flash floods and debris flows that can result in significant destruction and also lead to injury or death.  These debris flows are closely linked to precipitation and are therefore more predictable than other landslides.

The USGS has developed precipitation thresholds that help identify potential debris flows in recent burn areas and provides this information to National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern California. Using a flash flood monitoring and prediction tool, weather forecast offices monitor rainfall, and if it approaches the thresholds developed for burn areas, incorporate wording about debris flow hazards into flash flood warnings and public information statements.  Emergency managers and policymakers can use the information provided by this warning system to prepare for and respond to these hazards.
The debris flow and flash flood warning system pilot project started in September 2005 and has recently been extended for another year.  The project will continue to cover San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Orange, Riverside, and San Diego counties, most of which were affected by the recent wildfires. Tropical Weather Activity (NOAA). www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071107_southcalwarning.html

Yellowstone Lava Dome Filling Up Quickly

Yellowstone National Park, once the site of a giant volcano, has begun swelling up, possibly because molten rock is accumulating beneath the surface, scientists report. However, scientists believe there is no evidence of an imminent volcanic eruption. 

Experts report in Friday's issue of the Journal of Science that the flow of the ancient Yellowstone crater has been moving upward almost three inches per year for the past three years.  That is more than three times faster than ever observed since such measurements began in 1923, the researchers said.  The volcano at Yellowstone produced massive eruptions 2 million, 1.3 million and 642,000 years ago, all larger than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. (Media Sources)

Disaster Activity

No new disaster activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S. interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity to report. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)