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National Situation Update: Monday, November 5, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Southern California Wildfires Update

California OES reports 23 fires with two fires less than 100% contained.  Over 500,000 acres have burned within 7 counties since October 21; 3,216 structures were destroyed and 250 structures damaged. Over 7,800 personnel are still involved in fire fighting efforts.  Fatalities remain at 7, with 138 fire victims injured and 120 firefighters injured. The American Red Cross (ARC) reports that two ARC managed shelters remain open with a total population of 12.  In addition, as of November 3, 2007, 39 people were sheltered in 6 non-traditional shelters such as state parks and RV parks. (JFO Situation Status Summary, Pasadena, CA and the United States Forest Service)

National Weather

South
Tennessee and Arkansas may have some cloudiness and scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms as a cold front arrives from the north.  Temperature highs are forecast to range from the 60s to the 80s, although parts of far south. Texas could top 90.

Northeast
A cold front from the Great Lakes will trigger scattered showers from western New York state southward into West Virginia.  Gusty southerly winds will precede the front.  Temperatures will range from the 40s in Maine and northern New Hampshire to the 60s south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

West
Gusty northerly winds will accompany the push of the cold air southward, east of the Rockies.   High temperatures are predicted to range from the 30s over parts of Montana and northern Wyoming to the 90s in far southeast of California and southwest Arizona.

Midwest
Precipitation will be snow showers over the northern reaches of the Upper Midwest, and rain changing to snow over the U. P. of Michigan where winter storm warnings are posted.  From lower Michigan through the Ohio Valley, showers will mark the passage of a strong cold front.  Behind the front, gusty northerly winds develop over the Great Plains.   High temperatures are expected to range from 30s to the 60s, although highs near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers could approach 70. (NWS, Media Sources)

Nor'easter Storm

A nor'easter is a macro-scale storm whose winds come from the northeast, especially in the coastal areas of the Northeastern United States. More specifically, it describes a low pressure area whose center of rotation is just off the coast and whose leading winds in the left forward quadrant rotate onto land from the northeast. The precipitation pattern is similar to other extratropical storms. They also can cause coastal flooding, coastal erosion and gale force winds, and heavy snow.
Nor'easters are usually formed by an area of vorticity associated with an upper level disturbance or from a kink in a frontal surface that causes a surface low pressure area to develop. Such storms very often are formed from the merging of several weaker storms, a "parent storm" and a polar jet stream mixing with the tropical jet stream.
During a single storm, the precipitation can range from a torrential downpour to a fine mist. Low temperatures and wind gusts of up to 90 miles per hour are also associated with a nor'easter. On very rare occasions, such as the North American blizzard of 2006, and a nor'easter in 1979, the center of the storm can even take on the circular shape more typical of a hurricane and have a small eye. (Wikipedia encyclopedia)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At 11:16 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 04, 2007, a 4.5 magnitude earthquake occurred 181 miles east of Atka, AK, at a depth of 6.2 miles.  No tsunami occurred due to this event. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)