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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Southern California Wildfires Update

The following information was reported by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) website on October 30, 2007 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Ventura, San Bernardino, Orange, and Riverside counties. There are currently five (5) active fires not 100% contained:

 Slide: 12,759 acres, 97% contained.
 Witch: 197,990 acres, 99% contained.
 Poomacha: 49,540 acres, 70% contained.
 Santiago: 28,445 acres, 80% contained.
 Harris: 90,440 acres, 95% contained. (CAL FIRE)

3,825 structures are threatened and 3,313 structures have been destroyed or damaged.

Approximately 517,535 acres consumed.

Seven (7) confirmed deaths and 116 injuries.

2,690 evacuees. 
389 persons are being housed in 11 shelters.

4,482 customers without electricity; 150 customers are without natural gas service.   (CA Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, NICC, FEMA HQ, DOE)

Southern California Weather Improving

Santa Ana winds will return to southern California by Friday, November 2, 2007, and they will peak on Saturday, November 3, 2007.

This event will be much less windy than the previous event, and will be short-lived.  The fire danger will increase again, however. (NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico - Tropical Storm Noel
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, October 31, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located about 50 miles north-northwest of Camaguey, Cuba, and about 205 miles south-southwest of Nassau, in the Bahamas.

Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph.  A gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours.  This motion should bring the center of Noel off the northern coast of Cuba today, October 31, 2007, and near the northwestern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, after the center emerges over water.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.  Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, reported a wind gust of 43 mph.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,000 mb (29.53 inches).

Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.

Noel is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of five-to-ten inches over Hispaniola, bringing total accumulations to 20-to-30 inches.  Total rainfall accumulations of five-to-ten inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interest currently in effect. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake, magnitude 5.6 on the Richter scale, occurred in northern California at 11:04 p.m. EDT, Tuesday, October 30, 2007.  The quake was located five miles north-northeast of Alum Rock, CA, seven miles east of Milpitas, CA, and nine miles northeast of San Jose City Hall, CA, at a depth of 5.7 miles.  There were no reports of damages or injuries.

An earthquake, magnitude 7.2 on the Richter scale, occurred in Pagan Region, Northern Mariana Islands at 10:30 p.m. EDT, Tuesday, October 30, 2007.  The quake was located 58 miles north-northwest of Pagan, Northern Maraiana Islands, 254 miles north of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands, and 1,190 miles south-southeast of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan, CA, at a depth of 248 km.  Based on all available data, a destructive Pacific-wide tsunami is not expected, and there is no tsunami threat to Hawaii.

An earthquake, magnitude 4.0 on the Richter scale, occurred in Wyoming at 1:23 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, October 31, 2007.  The quake was located 12 miles northeast of Bondurant, WY, and 196 miles north-northeast of Salt Lake City, UT, at a depth of 3.1 miles.  There were no reports of damages or injuries.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)