National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Southern California Wildfires Update
The following information was reported by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) website on October 30, 2007 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Ventura, San Bernardino, Orange, and Riverside counties. There are currently five (5) active fires not 100% contained:
Slide: 12,789 acres, 90% contained.
Witch: 197,990 acres, 95% contained.
Poomacha: 49,540 acres, 70% contained.
Santiago: 28,500 acres, 65% contained.
Harris: 90,440 acres, 85% contained. (CAL FIRE)
3,825 structures are threatened and 3,313 structures have been destroyed or damaged.
Approximately 517,535 acres consumed.
Seven (7) confirmed deaths and 116 injuries.
2,690 evacuees.
389 persons are being housed in 11 shelters.
Registration intake: 8,376
4,482 customers without electricity; 150 customers are without natural gas service. (CA Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, NICC, FEMA HQ, DOE)
Southern California Weather Improving
Light onshore flow will continue to help the firefighting effort at least through Tuesday, October 30, 2007. This pattern will be of benefit in that it is a more humid and light flow in contrast to the much higher Santa Ana winds.(NWS)
Firefighters Making Progress Against Last Of Southern California's Big Fires
Firefighters aided by damp weather made progress against the last of Southern California's big wildfires, hoping to squelch the remaining flames before the possible return of winds this week. There was a chance of a weak-to-moderate Santa Ana wind pattern on Friday, November 2, 2007 and Saturday, November 3, 2007 but the National Weather Service said wind speeds should be ``half or less'' than those of the dry, withering blasts that fanned conflagrations last week.
In the meantime, clouds drawn ashore by low pressure over the Pacific Ocean streamed across the region and forecasters predicted some chance of sprinkles through Wednesday morning, October 31, 2007. The flow of ocean air ``should provide a literal breath of fresh air, flush out the smoke and improve the air quality,'' the Weather Service said.
Fire crews were already benefiting from precipitation in some areas, said a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. ``We continue to make great progress,'' he said. The 58,401-acre Ranch Fire northwest of Los Angeles in Ventura County was fully contained and crews were pushing to complete lines around the other big blazes. Containment estimates on those fires ranged from 65 percent to 95 percent Monday, October 29, 2007.
The wind gusted last week up to 100 mph (160 kph), pushing flames across more than 500,000 acres in seven Southern California counties.
The state Office of Emergency Services damage tally rose Monday to 2,786 structures destroyed, including more than 2,000 homes. Nearly all mandatory evacuation orders had been lifted, and victims have begun assessing damage and trying to figure out where to go next.
Nearly 8,400 people had contacted the Federal Emergency Management Agency for assistance, said a spokesperson.
Seven deaths were directly attributed to the fires, including those of four suspected illegal immigrants, whose burned bodies were found near the U.S.-Mexico border on Thursday. (Media Sources)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico - Tropical Storm Noel
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.
At 5:00 am EDT, October 30, 2007 the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas.
Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for southeast Florida later today, October 30, 2007.
At 5:00 am EDT radar data from Holguin, Cuba indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located very near the town of Gibara on the north coast of Cuba and about 270 miles south-southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas.
Noel has been moving toward the west near 12 mph however Noel should turn to the northwest with the same forward speed later today, October 30, 2007. On this track the center of Noel should continue to move very near and parallel to the north coast of Cuba for the next 12 hours or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles mainly to the north of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.
Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible over southeastern Cuba and the central and southeastern Bahamas. These rains particularly in Hispaniola are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible over the southeastern Bahamas.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interest currently in effect. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Tuesday, 30-Oct-2007 07:50:46 EDT