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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 28, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Southern California Wildfires Update

The following information was reported by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) website at 7:31 pm PDT, October 27, 2007 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Ventura, San Bernardino, Orange, and Riverside counties: 
Ranch Fire: Castaic, Los Angeles County  
58,401 acres burned, 97% contained.   

Harris Fire: San Diego County
85,800 acres burned, 55% contained.

Witch Fire: San Diego County  
197,990 acres burned, 75% contained.

Santiago Fire: Irvine, Orange County  
27,630 acres burned, 40% percent contained.

Grass Valley Fire: San Bernardino County  
1,140 acres burned, 95% contained.

Slide Fire: San Bernardino County
13,800 acres burned, 35% contained.

Rice Fire: San Diego County
9,000 acres burned, 90% contained.

Poomacha Fire: San Diego County
45,000 acres burned, 45% contained.  

Pendleton (Horno/Ammo Fire): San Diego County
21,084 acres burned, 95% contained.

There are currently nine active fires and approximately 507,957 acres have burned.  There are 156,084 evacuees;  18,925 structures are threatened and 3,279 structures destroyed or damaged; 2,058 individuals are being housed in 20 shelters. (CA JFO Sitrep, 0300 EDT, October 28, 2007)

Seven (7) deaths and 88 injuries have been confirmed.

As of 1:00 am EDT, October 27, 2007 there were 11,490 customers without electricity; 1,644 customers are without natural gas service, according to the US Department of Energy.  (CA Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, NICC, FEMA HQ)

Weather Improves At California Fires

Cooler weather helped firefighters make strong gains on many of the wildfires burning across Southern California on Saturday, October 27, 2007 but officials remained guarded about what the rest of the weekend might bring.

Tropical moisture flowing from the south replaced the hot, Santa Ana winds that roared in a week earlier and spread fires over more than a half-million acres, destroying more than 2,300 structures, including more than 1,790 homes.

By late Saturday containment of nine blazes ranged from 40 to 97 percent. Fire officials in San Bernardino County said they expected a fire there to be fully contained on Sunday, October 28, 2007.  Sunday's weather forecast, however, predicted another shift.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Saturday visited a command post near Orange County's Santiago Canyon fire to announce assistance for people with losses, warn of contracting scams and pledge to find whoever set the nearby blaze that continued to threaten homes.  Addressing controversy over state rules that caused delay in getting military aircraft into use against the fires, Schwarzenegger said it sometimes takes disaster "to really wake everyone up."
"There are things that we could improve on and I think this is what we are going to do because a disaster like this ... in the end is a good vehicle, a motivator for everyone to come together," he said.

About 4,400 people remained in 28 shelter sites in Southern California, but others waited out the fires in makeshift encampments. In Highland, at the base of the San Bernardino Mountains, about 20 people were in their sixth day of living in a Wal-Mart parking lot, getting daily visits from sheriff's officials who reported their 17 homes were still intact.

Hundreds of evacuees flooded back into Crestline, Valley of Enchantment and Lake Gregory, small mountain communities tucked in canyons and alongside lakes in the San Bernardino mountains.  Light rain fell on the Rancho Bernardo section of San Diego, where more than 360 homes were lost. National Guard troops patrolled and postal trucks delivered mail to homes that were still standing.
"Everybody is really happy for me and I'm sad for them," said a retired school administrator whose cul-de-sac home survived with five ruined homes on each side. She credited her good fortune to replacing wood shingles with a fiberglass roof and chopping down a eucalyptus tree within the last five years.

One resident said it was eerie to be surrounded by ruined homes but he was anxious to come back home as soon as electricity was restored.  "I don't know where I would move in San Diego with these dry Santa Ana conditions we get," he said. "I could move to Indiana, but they have tornados and floods. Everywhere you go in the country you get something. Here we have earthquakes and fires."   (Media Sources)

Fire Weather Forecast for Extreme Southwestern California

Light onshore flow will continue to help the firefighting effort in Southern California at least through Tuesday, October 30, 2007. This wind pattern is helpful on two fronts. First, it is from the ocean and is a more humid flow; second, the winds are lighter, in contrast to the 70+ mph Santa Ana winds earlier this past week.

The medium-range forecast shows a building ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin.  This ridge would allow for northeast winds again.  These winds would be gusty at times but, so far, not as strong as the last event.  These winds look to arrive sometime on the weekend of November 3-4, 2007.  Preliminary estimates of 40 mph wind gusts, with higher wind gusts at 50+ mph are forecast. (NWS, Ontario, CA Weather Services)

Boston Mass Casualty Exercise

The Massachusetts Port Authority along with 60 federal agencies participated in a full scale emergency preparedness exercise at Logan Airport. The exercise, titled "Operation Ready 2007," is believed to be the largest airport mass casualty drill to date and involved more than 1,500 emergency personnel and volunteers. The major theme of the exercise was a simulated runway collision of two passenger aircrafts, which helped officials evaluate mass casualty operations and transportation capabilities, review traffic plans for emergency vehicles, and oversee emergency response by public and private agencies.   (NICC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report within the last 24 hours.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico

• At 5:00 am EDT, October 28, 2007, the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located about 165 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti.
  
• The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph.  Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next 24-36 hours.
  
• Sea Surface Temperatures are about 77 degrees Farenheit in the area of Tropical Depression 16.
  
• Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday, October 28, 2007.
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
  
• Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are possible in the warned area.
  
• Tropical depression sixteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Hispaniola with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over Jamaica and southeastern Cuba with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  Additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 
  
• Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:

• Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:

• No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interest currently in effect. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant earthquake activity during the last 24 hours. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)