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National Situation Update: Friday, October 26, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Southern California Wildfires Update

The following information was reported on wildfires in Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Ventura, San Bernardino, Orange, and Riverside counties: 
Ranch Fire: Castaic, Los Angeles County (FMAG approved) 
56,235 acres burned, 81% contained.   
Harris Fire: San Diego County (FMAG approved) 
81,100 acres burned, 10% contained.
Witch Fire: San Diego County (FMAG approved) 
197,990 acres burned, 30% contained.
Santiago Fire: Irvine, Orange County (FMAG approved) 
26,000 acres burned, 30% percent contained.
Grass Valley Fire: San Bernardino County (FMAG approved) 
1,100 acres burned, 70% contained.
Slide Fire: San Bernardino County
11,675 acres burned, 15% contained.
Rice Fire: San Diego County (FMAG approved)
9,000 acres burned, 40% contained.
Poomacha Fire: San Diego County
38,500 acres burned, 30% contained.  
Ammo/Wilcox (Pendleton) Fire: San Diego County
50,000 acres burned, 50% contained.

Ten previously reported fires have been 100% contained.  There are currently 21,445 structures threatened and 2,605 structures have been destroyed or damaged.  Approximately 519,754 acres have burned with 70% of all acres being in San Diego County.  Three deaths have been confirmed and there have been 65 injuries.  12,334 individuals are being housed in 45 shelters.  The CA Office of Emergency Services (OES) reported approximately 321,000 residences had been evacuated at the height of the wildfires incident.  As of 2:35 p.m. EDT, October 25, 2007, there were 24,007 customers without power in CA due to the wildfires and high winds.  San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison accounted for the power outage reports. (CA OES, US Department of Energy, FEMA Region IX, FEMA HQ)

California Weather

Onshore breezes, higher humidity and cooler temperatures should continue to spread across Southern California through the day.  High pressure is expected to build across the Rockies, bringing light, but localized, offshore breezes back to the region.  Temperatures are expected to increase, while humidity levels drop Saturday. (FEMA Region IX, Southern California Geographic Area Coordination Center; Los Angeles County Fire Department; CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection, NORAD-USNORTHCOM; NWS)

National Weather

Northeast
Significant precipitation will enter from the Middle Atlantic region into the Northeast over the next couple of days.  Rains will spread northward into Pennsylvania and southern New York Sate during the day.  As much as two to four inches of rain may impact areas of western Virginia, central Pennsylvania and central New York by Saturday morning.  The flooding threat is relatively low due to the lack of rainfall over the past couple of months.  Temperatures will be relatively mild, in the 50s and 60s, into the weekend.

Midwest
An area of low pressure across the South will move northward over the next couple of days.  Light rain and showers are expected over parts of the Midwest, especially across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.  To the west an approaching cold front will trigger some scattered showers over the western Dakotas.  The rest of the Midwest will be dry on Friday with relatively mild temperatures reaching the 50s and 60s.

South
Much of the South should see abundant sunshine and pleasant temperatures over the next couple of days.  Some cloudiness and showers may remain across Mississippi, northern Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee on Friday as a low pressure aloft drifts northward.  Portions of Virginia and the Carolinas will see significant amounts of rain on Friday. Some localized flooding is possible.  Highs across the region are expected to be in the low to mid 70s.

Northwest
A cold front coming down from Canada will bring significantly colder weather and mountain snow to parts of the northern Rockies by the end of the week.  Temperatures over 24 hours might plunge by as much as 20 degrees and up to a foot of snow could fall in the mountains of Montana and northern Wyoming.  Highs are expected to be in the high 50s across the Northwest.

NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track

In the first scheduled update to the 2007-08 U.S. winter outlook, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seasonal forecasters say the latest data and model runs confirm their earlier prediction for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across much of the Southwest and Southeast.  "The prediction for a warmer than normal winter is still on course," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.  "Our big concern continues to be the persistence of drought across large parts of the country's southern tier. Nearly half of the Southeast is in extreme drought and water supplies have reached critical levels in some cities.  "NOAA meteorologists predict that the drought will continue through the winter for many areas in the Southeast.  Although forecasters cannot rule out much-needed rain in any location in coming months, the latest U.S. drought outlook shows reduced chances for significant relief along the Gulf and Southeast coasts, as the odds for soaking tropical rains diminish as the Atlantic hurricane season winds down. "Drought is by no means limited to the Southeast, as severe drought expanded northward all the way to Delaware this month.  The Washington D.C. area is experiencing one of the most notable dry spells on record, with October 17 the 33rd consecutive day without measurable rain at Reagan National Airport," said Douglas LeComte, drought specialist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.  "Even though December, January and February are likely to be milder than average for much of the country, people should still expect some typical winter weather this season," said Halpert.  The 2007-08 U.S. winter outlook will be updated for the final time this season on Nov. 15 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. (Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071018_winteroutlook.html )

Additional reservoirs to combat Georgia Drought

Suffering through one of the worst droughts in recent years, the State of Georgia announced plans to develop a network of state reservoirs.  The plan calls for the creation of four new reservoirs and expanding current ones.  Georgia officials warn that Lake Lanier, a 38,000-acre reservoir that supplies more than 3 million residents with water, is less than three months from being exhausted. Smaller reservoirs are dropping even lower.  Neighboring states of Alabama, Georgia and Florida are caught up in a decades-long water fight over federal reservoirs.  The Corps of Engineers, who manages the distribution of the water, is sending millions of gallons of water from Georgia downstream to Florida and Alabama to supply power plants.  Georgia sued the Corps, demanding it send less water downstream.  That brought sharp responses from the governors of Alabama and Florida, who warned that Georgia's water consumption endangers their downstream states.  Outside the gate to the Farley Nuclear Power Plant near the Georgia line in southeast Alabama, Riley said the plant could be forced to cut power production if the current flow of water on the Chattahoochee River is reduced.  Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne will travel to Alabama and Georgia later in the week to meet with state officials allowing them to make their case for federal relief. (Georgia Emergency Management Agency, Media Sources, NOAA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
An area of low pressure moving west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph is centered over the Virgin Islands.  Surface pressures remain low in the area and satellite imagery indicates shower and thunderstorm activity stretching eastward from the low for a couple hundred miles.  Although upper-level winds are generally unfavorable for significant development, this system has the potential to become a tropical depression.  Regardless of additional development, showers and gusty winds can be expected tonight and tomorrow across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Depression 20W (Faxai) has formed in the Western Pacific but is no threat to Guam or the Federated States of Micronesia.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Friday, October 26, 2007 at 12:57 a.m. EDT, an earthquake measuring 4.2 magnitude struck Fern Forest, Hawaii with a depth of 5.7 miles. No damage or injuries were reported and no tsunami warnings were issued. (USGS, NOAA, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers, RX RRCC)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)