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National Situation Update: Monday, October 22, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
As a cold front moves eastward through the Midwest Monday, October 22, 2007, it will produce showers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas and Ohio Valley.
The precipitation in the northern reaches of the region should be light and scattered.  Farther south, heavier and widespread rain is expected in Kansas and Missouri, Ohio Valley and Kentucky.

West
The majority of the western U. S. will be dry tomorrow, Monday, October 22, 2007.  The only exception will be from Washington into Montana, where a few showers may fall.
Far to the south, Santa Ana winds will move through the passes and canyons of Southern California.  High wind warnings and red flag warnings remain posted for many locations.
High temperatures will range from the 30s in parts of the Rockies to the 80s along the central and Southern California coasts, as well as in southeast California and southwest Arizona.

South
A cold front over the Mississippi Valley tomorrow, Monday, October 22, 2007, will cause downpours and thunderstorms.
It will reach from Texas and Oklahoma eastward, through the Deep South and Tennessee.
The heaviest downpours, up to several inches, are likely in Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.
A few severe thunderstorms may develop over Louisiana and Mississippi.
Meanwhile, an easterly flow on the southern side of a large high pressure area over the western Atlantic will scatter showers and thunderstorms across Florida.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Southern California Wildfires Situation

On October 21, 2007 the California Office of Emergency Services began reporting multiple wind-driven wildfires in Los Angeles and San Diego counties:

Canyon Fire: Los Angeles County, Malibu (FMAG approved) 
Currently 700 acres, 0% containment.
200 homes evacuated, 1,500 people relocated.
Pepperdine University threatened, students are sheltering in place. 
Two commercial buildings destroyed, 4 commercial buildings damaged, 5 residences destroyed, 9 residences damaged, 1 church destroyed, 1 Church damaged.
Buckweed Fire: Los Angeles County, Santa Clarita (FMAG approved)
Currently 10, 000 acres burned, (from 2,000 to 10,000 in 45 minutes) containment unknown.
3,800 homes threatened reports of between 2 to 8 destroyed.
Witch Fire: San Diego County, Witch Creek, Ramona, San Diego Country Estates, Barona Mesa (FMAG approved).  The location is the same as the Cedar Fire of 2003, which may mean limited fuels.
Currently 4,000 acres, 1% containment.
1,000 homes threatened mostly residential area.  
9,000 mandatory evacuated and 4,000 voluntary evacuees.
Harris Fire: San Diego County, near Potrero, Bulzura, Dear Horn Valley, Lyon Valley and into Mexico.  (FMAG approved)
Currently 3,000 acres burned. (Does not include acreage across the border)
1,000 homes threatened and 3,000 mandatory evacuations.
2,500 acres, 0% containment.
21 injuries (4 firefighters injured, 17 Mexican Nationals) and 1 fatality (Believed to be a Mexican National that did not evacuate).
Ranch Fire: Ventura County, Priu and Fillmore - California OES does not intend on assistance request this date (No FMAG requested).
Currently 1,500 acres, 0% containment.
Santiago Fire: Orange County, near Irvine. (No FMAG requested). 
Currently 300 acres, 0% containment.
Rocca Fire: Riverside County. (No FMAG requested)
Currently 125 acres, 20% containment.

Expect initial attack to be heavy across southern California and the central Coast; otherwise initial attack will be light-to-moderate.

The potential for large fire activity will be very high over southern California through Wednesday, October 24, 2007, due to strong offshore winds which will be widespread and accompanied by low humidity and high temperatures.

There will be widespread strong and gusty north-to-east winds over southern California through the morning of October 24, 2007.

Winds will be 20 to 40 mph, with 60 to 70 mph gusts, over the mountains and below the canyons and passes of southern California.

Winds will decrease over southern California Wednesday, October 24, 2007.

As the week progresses, the potential for large fire will also increase over central California due to well above normal temperatures (15-25 degrees) and very low humidity (single digits and teens).

A ridge of high pressure will weaken as a Pacific trough moves down the West Coast bringing a cooling trend and an increase in humidity Thursday, October 25, 2007 through next weekend.(FEMA Region IX, Southern California Geographic Area Coordination Center; Los Angeles County Fire Department; NWS)

Wind-Driven Fires Ravage Calif.; 1 Dead

More than a half-dozen wildfires driven by powerful Santa Ana winds spread across Southern California on Sunday, killing one person near San Diego and destroying several homes and a church in celebrity-laden Malibu.

No details were immediately available about the death in San Diego County, but four firefighters and four other people were injured and taken to hospitals.

About 500 firefighters worked to protect Pepperdine University and some 200 homes in the upscale Malibu Crest and Serra Retreat neighborhoods.

The blaze had charred at least 1,000 acres, or more than a square mile. Wind that gusted as high as 65 mph carried embers across the Pacific Coast Highway, closing the popular road and setting fire to cars and trees in the parking lot of a shopping center where several stores were damaged.

Television news video showed several other buildings also in flames in the area, including clusters of beach-side homes.

Flames consumed the landmark Castle Kashan, a stately fortress-like home with turrets and arched windows, as about a dozen residents watched from across a street. Chunks of brick fell from the exterior of the burning building overlooking the coast.

Faculty and staff members at the 830-acre Pepperdine campus were urged to evacuate.  Students were instructed to gather their belongings from their dorm rooms and report to the school's cafeteria and basketball arena.

But by early afternoon the campus was secure.

Flames were no longer visible in the hills around the school, and power had been restored.
Earlier, helicopters had dropped water on flames in the hills above the campus, and palm trees smoldered on the ocean-facing side of the campus.

At least three homes and two commercial buildings had been confirmed destroyed in the area, and nine other homes were damaged.

The fire is expected to burn for another two to three days.  Until it is extinguished, there will literally be thousands of homes that will be threatened at one time or another.
Fire crews had found downed power lines, which may have started the blaze in Malibu Canyon.

Erratic wind gusts hampered efforts to drop water from aircraft and pushed flames toward HRL Laboratories, commonly known as Hughes Lab, a research and engineering facility jointly owned by Boeing and General Motors, about a mile north of Pepperdine. One outbuilding caught fire.

About 200 homes were evacuated in the communities of Malibu Colony, Puerco Canyon, Monte Nido and Sweetwater Canyon.

To the south, a blaze was also burning near Potrero, about 40 miles southeast of San Diego, fire officials said. One structure had been destroyed and an unknown number of people evacuated, officials said.

Fifty to 100 homes were potentially in harm's way.

Wildfires had been widely expected in southern California during the weekend, as hot weather and strong Santa Ana wind marked the height of traditional wildfire season after one of the driest rain years on record.  (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2732-CA issued for the Malibu/Canyon fire that began on October 21, 2007 and is continuing.
FMAG-2733-CA issued for the Buckweed fire that began on October 21, 2007 and is continuing.
FMAG-2734-CA issued for the Witch fire that began on October 21, 2007 and is continuing.
FMAG-2735-CA issued for the Harris fire that began on October 21, 2007 and is continuing. (FEMA HQ)   

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm KIKO:
The center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located about 255 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near two mph.  A turn to the west, with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. The center of Kiko will pass well to the south of the Baja, California, peninsula during the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph, with higher gusts.
Some slow weakening is possible over the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,002 mb (29.59 inches).
This will be the last public advisory issued on Kiko unless a threat to Mexico redevelops.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)