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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 21, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A cold front from the northern Plains will advance eastward October 21-22, 2007, into the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley.
In its wake, rain showers will accompany unseasonable temperatures of 5-20 degrees below normal.
Later, during the week, widespread showers will be triggered by another front.

West
Sunday, October 20, 2007, parts of Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado will experience heavy snowfall (locally over 12 inches).
Fire danger will be very high over southern California as Santa Ana winds could reach the 50-80 mph range in passes and canyons and relative humidity drops to below 10%.

South
A cold front will move from the Oklahoma-Texas panhandles Sunday, October 21, 2007, into the lower Mississippi River Valley Monday, October 22, 2007, while high pressure moves from the Southeast out into the western Atlantic.
Between the fronts, high pressure and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico (plus a disturbance already producing heavy rain from the northwest Caribbean into south Florida) will be funneled northward.
Monday and Tuesday, October 22-23, 2007, heavy multi-inch rains may douse parts of Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
High temperatures will be a chilly 5 to 15 degrees below average behind the front, but still a little above average ahead of it.   (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activity

Severe Weather October 19-20, 2007
Indiana -
State EOC partially activated with no FEMA representation requested.
Elkhart (City of Nappanee), Kosciusko, and Clark counties were most impacted.
All areas still without electrical power.
No fatalities reported; five (5) minor injuries.
ARC, Salvation Army is providing mass care support.
Results of prior ARC assessments expected October 21, 2007.
No requests for federal assistance.

Michigan -
Damage reports received from 12 counties.
Present estimates reflect 20 residences destroyed or with major damage; nine (9) with minor damage.
Two (2) fatalities confirmed in Ingham County; one (1) in Kalkaska County.
Ingham County has declared a local emergency (no state declaration).        
No requests for federal assistance.
Offer of FEMA Liaison Officer declined. (FEMA Region V)

Georgia Request Disaster Declaration

With water supplies rapidly shrinking during a drought of historic proportions, Gov. Sonny Perdue declared a state of emergency Saturday for the northern third of Georgia and asked President Bush to declare it a major disaster area.

Georgia officials warn that Lake Lanier, a 38,000-acre reservoir that supplies more than 3 million residents with water, is less than three months from depletion. Smaller reservoirs are dropping even lower.

Perdue asked the President to exempt Georgia from complying with federal regulations that dictate the amount of water released from Georgia's reservoirs to protect federally protected mussel species downstream.

"We need to cut through the tangle of unnecessary bureaucracy to manage our resources prudently - so that in the long term, all species may have access to life-sustaining water," he said.

On Friday, Perdue's office asked a federal judge to force the Army Corps of Engineers to curb the amount of water it drains from Georgia reservoirs into streams in Alabama and Florida. Georgia's environmental protection director is drafting proposals for more water restrictions.

More than a quarter of the Southeast is covered by an "exceptional" drought - the National Weather Service's worst drought category. The Atlanta area, with a population of 5 million, is smack in the middle of the affected region, which encompasses most of Tennessee, Alabama and the northern half of Georgia, as well as parts of North and South Carolina, Kentucky and Virginia.

Georgia was placed under statewide water restrictions in April that limited outdoor watering to three days a week. By May Atlanta allowed watering only on weekends, and in September environmental officials banned virtually all outdoor watering through the northern half of the state.

The state of emergency Perdue declared Saturday affects 85 Georgia counties, roughly the northern third of the state.

Conditions were worsened by stifling summer heat and a drier-than-normal hurricane season. State climatologist David Stooksbury said it will take months of above average rainfall to replenish the system. (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm KIKO:
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the southern Baja, California, peninsula later today, Sunday, October 21, 2007.
The center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located about 300 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Kiko is moving toward the north-northwest near six mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24. This motion should keep the center of Kiko offshore and moving parallel to the Pacific coast of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph, with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours, and Kiko could become a Hurricane later today, Sunday, October 21, 2007.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On October 20, 2007, the governor of Georgia requested a major disaster declaration as a result of prolonged and exceptional drought conditions existing in the northern third of the state (85 counties).  The incident period is September 28, 2007, and continuing. (FEMA HQ)