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National Situation Update: Saturday, October 20, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Showers and mountain snow will extend from Washington, Oregon and the northern half of California to Montana, Wyoming and Utah today, October 20, 2007 as the cold front moves inland.

Snow levels will lower to 3500 feet in the Cascades and 4000 feet in the northern Rockies by this evening.
High temperatures will range from the 30s, 40s and 50s across the Northwest to the lower 90s in the Desert Southwest.

A large area of high pressure is building over the West bringing a strong offshore flow over Southern California and the Santa Ana winds will increase later today, October 20, 2007.

The relative humidity will drop to below 10% at times and gusts in the passes and canyons could reach the 60-to-80-mph range. Coupled with the expected high temperatures in the Desert Southwest the fire danger will be extremely high. (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activity

REGION IV
Severe Weather Update

Kentucky -
Initial PDA October 19, 2007 found most affected properties are businesses with insurance.
Downtown Owensboro - clean up begun.
Hart County - 3 businesses affected.
Other damage mostly downed trees and power lines. No widespread power outages.
Accurate monetary estimate of damage should be available on Monday, October 22, 2007.
No request for FEMA Response Liaison at this time.

Mississippi -
Reports as of 4:50 pm EDT, October 19, 2007 show 8 homes with major damage in Jackson, Forrest, and Desoto counties; 2 businesses listed with major damage; 1 person injured.
Event for MS began on 17 October.
MEMA Area Coordinators dispatched to 3 affected counties.

Federal Actions
No requests for FEMA Response Liaisons or PDAs.   (FEMA Region IV)

REGION V
OCTOBER 18 & 19, 2007 Severe Weather
INDIANA -
At approximately 11:55 pm CDT, October 18, 2007, severe weather struck Nappanee in Elkhart County IN. Strong wind gusts resulted in the damage of 70 homes within a large subdivision.
Damage displaced about 29 residents who are currently staying in a faith-based shelter in Elkhart County. A second shelter is standing by. 
As of 2:30 am CDT, October 19, 2007 there were no reports of injuries or fatalities. Validation for the above information was received through the IN State advisor.
Additional state planning and operations personnel are moving to the scene. The Elkhart County EOC is also up and running, assisting in recovery efforts.
State of Indiana personnel will be in the Nappanee area performing damage assessments through Sunday, October 21, 2007. 
Only three people remain in shelters. 
A water main break in Nappanee was repaired and pressure is rising in the water tower, alleviating contingency planning for fire suppression. 
Less than 400 customers remain without power, down from around 4,500 earlier October 19, 2007. 
The State EOC is expected to reduce staffing over the weekend effective at midnight, Friday, October 19, 2007.  The State declined the Region V offer to deploy a FEMA Liaison Officer.

Damage reported includes:

25 - 30 homes affected
12-20 businesses affected
The major concern for the county is water pressure for firefighting.
Drinking water is not affected.
17 people were sheltered overnight and 29 were fed.

ILLINOIS -
Clark County reported to the State that approximately 10-12 structures sustained minor damage and two (2) structures destroyed.
Kosciusko County reported to the State that approximately 17 homes have major damage or are destroyed in an Amish community. There were 5 minor injuries reported.

MICHIGAN -
Severe storms, including high winds, large hail, and tornadoes affected portions of the State on the evening of October 18, 2007 and continued into the early morning hours of October 19, 2007.  Initial damage reports have been received from 12 counties.  Current estimates reflect 20 homes destroyed or with Major Damage and 9 homes affected or with Minor Damage.  There are also reports of limited infrastructure damage.  Two fatalities were confirmed by MSP in Ingham County and one additional fatality in Kalkaska County has also been confirmed.
Ingham County has declared a local emergency.  There is no State declaration.  Michigan State Police is conducting flyovers of the affected areas to assess the geographic extent of the damages.  The State EOC is partially activated.
The Michigan State Police Watch Officer advised the State EOC has reduced staffing for the night. The Watch Officer was not aware if the EOC would be activated over the weekend. 
Curfews are in effect for the Williamston area. 
There have been no requests for Federal Assistance and the offer of a Regional FEMA Liaison Officer was declined. (FEMA Region V)

REGION VI
Arkansas Storms and Tornados - October 17 & 18, 2007
An upper-level system slowly moved out of the central Rockies into the central Plains on October 17, 2007.  At the same time, a dry line pushed across Oklahoma and Texas.  Showers and thunderstorms developed just ahead of the dry line during the late morning and early afternoon, and a second band developed just ahead of the dry line during the late afternoon hours.  Simultaneously, tropical moisture was streaming northward through the Lower Mississippi River valley in association with a weak tropical wave that sparked showers and thunderstorms over Louisiana.  Each of these systems spread rainfall and storms into Arkansas during the evening hours. 

Crittenden County - Local Coordinator reported damage due to high winds on Highway 147 and Kelly Rd.  Five (5) homes were completely destroyed and three individuals were transported to the hospital. Power was out in the area. There were also reports of natural gas leaks near a school.
Pulaski County - nine (9) homes were reported to have sustained damage, five vehicles damaged and one plane turned over at the North Little Rock Airport.
Franklin County - Approximately 1100 people were reported without power in the Altus and rural surrounding area.
Howard County - A transformer blew in south Dierks resulting in power outages to the area.
Jefferson County - Damage was reported to the Dollarway High School in Jefferson County.  Power lines were reported down throughout the rural part of the county. Power outages were identified at HWY 104 and HWY 270 on interstates in White Hall.
Lincoln County - There was reported damage to trailers, barns, and homes on Autumn Hill Rd off Hwy 54. Six (6) homes were reported uninhabitable. A full assessment will be done October 20, 2007.  Trees were also reported blown down and power out in portions of the county.
Prairie County - One home and shop was damaged by winds. Flooding occurred on roads throughout the county including Hwy 38 in several places and Hwy 70 at exit 249.
Saline County - Trees and power lines down throughout the county. Parts of Bauxite, Haskell, and Paron were reported to be without power.
Sebastian County - County EOC and SO 911 suffered a power outage due to thunderstorms in the area. The power outage also included a large portion of down town Forth Smith due to downed power lines.
Washington County - Approx 6000 customers were reported without power throughout the county due to downed power lines. The numbers are spread widely throughout the County.
Garland County - Wind damage to boat storage building in Hot Springs; no injuries reported and no structure damages reported.
Saint Francis County - Damage was reported in the Goodwin Community. One mobile home and two frame homes received roof damage. A metal shop incurred roof damage and a grain bin was blown over
Cleveland County - Near Star City, six (6) homes were reported uninhabitable.  No injuries were reported. 

No request for Federal assistance is anticipated.  
The Arkansas Division of Emergency Management is closely monitoring reports of impacts and is in contact with local jurisdictions.   (FEMA Region VI)

REGION VII
Missouri Severe Storms and Tornadoes - October 17 and 18, 2007
A strong frontal system with an associated dry line moved across Missouri during the afternoon of Wednesday, Oct. 17, 2007 and into the early hours of Thursday, October 18, 2007.  Severe weather with strong winds developed ahead of the dry line.  Supercells in advance of the intense storm system spawned tornadoes in southwest Missouri.  A supercell tracked from eastern Lawrence County into western Greene County in southwest Missouri dropping at least one tornado.
Two fatalities were reported in Monroe County after a tornado struck a mobile home.

County Reports:

Cape Girardeau County - High winds caused significant power outages around Cape Girardeau.  Officials report about 5,000 customers without power.
Lawrence County - Tornado reported in Lawrence County near Aurora and Chesapeake.  Three homes and a dairy barn sustained damage.  The power substation was also damaged causing minor power outages.
Monroe County - Two people were killed when high winds struck a mobile home six miles northeast of Paris.  A barn was destroyed by high winds near Madison. 
St Charles County - High winds caused significant power outages. Officials report approximately 1,700 customers without power in and around City of St Charles. 
St Louis County - High winds knocked out power in the county. Officials report approximately 4,300 homes and businesses without power. 

Volunteer Organizations:
American Red Cross in northeast Missouri and southwest Missouri are assisting families in Monroe County and Lawrence County.   (FEMA Region VII)

Iowa Severe Storms and Flooding Update
Severe thunderstorms and heavy rains affected portions of southern Iowa (south of I-80) beginning on Saturday, October 13, 2007. The Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division (HSEMD) received notification of specific response requests and activities on Sunday, October 14, 2007 at 7:00 pm CDT via the on-call Operations Officer. No injuries or fatalities were reported.

The Governor issued a Proclamation for Montgomery County on Monday, October 15, 2007. 

No request for Federal assistance is anticipated at this time. (FEMA Region VII)

Storms Kill 6 As Systems Move Across Country; Unusual October Tornadoes In Midwest

A couple spending their first night in a new house were among at least six people killed as unusually severe October storms destroyed homes, downed trees and knocked out power in several states, authorities said Friday.

The thunderstorms, some spawning tornadoes and high winds, sent a mobile home in Missouri flying, killing another couple, destroyed homes in Michigan and Indiana and collapsed a trailer in Kentucky as they struck Thursday and early Friday.

In Washington state, where one person died, a floating bridge buffeted by powerful wind was closed, and tens of thousands of homes and businesses lost electricity.

The bodies of Duane Bentley and Susan Bentley, both in their 50s, were recovered Friday morning, hours after tornadoes, strong winds and oversized hail pushed through much of Michigan, overturning vehicles and destroying homes.  The Bentley's home was ripped off its foundation and sent into a nearby pond in Ingham County's Locke Township, near Lansing, police said.

A 29-year-old man was killed when strong wind collapsed his home around him in Kalkaska County.
In Millington Township, a 14-month-old boy in a crib escaped injury after apparently being tossed about 40 feet by a tornado that destroyed a home early Friday, fire officials said.  A neighbor found the baby under a pile of debris, still in the crib.

National Weather Service officials in Gaylord believe as many as four tornadoes, plus a water spout over an area lake, may have touched down in Kalkaska, Cheboygan, Alpena and Mio.  ``This is extremely rare,'' said a National Weather Service meteorologist in Gaylord. ``When you're this deep into the month of October, it's a very rare event.''

In rural northeastern Missouri, the state Highway Patrol said Kent Ensor, 44, and Kristy Secrease, 25, had sought refuge in Secrease's mobile home in Monroe County as a tornado approached. Their bodies were found about 400 feet from where the home had been.  The mobile home's frame was found three-quarters of a mile away, with debris as far as two miles away. The National Weather Service said the storm traveled a mile and had winds as high as 135 mph.

A line of thunderstorms that rumbled through Kentucky produced several tornadoes, smashing mobile homes and injuring at least 11 people in Owensboro. The most serious injury was a broken leg, said the Daviess County director of emergency management.

The storms forced officials to briefly close the Glover Cary Bridge, which carries traffic across the Ohio River between Indiana and Kentucky. A Kentucky Transportation Cabinet inspector was called to check the structure following an apparent tornado, but no damage was found, a cabinet spokesman said.

In Indiana, authorities declared a state of emergency after a tornado hit Nappanee, about 20 miles southeast of South Bend. Police said five people were taken to hospitals with minor injuries and 200 to 250 buildings were damaged, half of them severely. Among the businesses damaged there were three recreation vehicle plants that are among the city's largest employers.

A tornado in Pensacola, Fla., sent mall shoppers and children at the Greater Little Rock Baptist Church's daycare center running for safety just before the twister hit Thursday morning, said an Escambia County sheriff's spokesman.

In western Washington, where wind gusts reached 66 mph Thursday, a woman was injured when the top of a tree hit her in the head in Kent, fire officials said. A Seattle police patrol boat, responding to an emergency call of a kite boarder being dragged north on Lake Washington, found a 44-year-old man floating face down off Kirkland on the east side of the lake, police said.

The wind resulted in a three-hour precautionary closure of State Route 104 across Hood Canal, which separates the Kitsap and Olympia peninsulas.   (Media Sources)

Nevada Seeks Federal Disaster Declaration

In a move to help ranchers and farmers get low-interest loans and other assistance, Gov. Jim Gibbons has asked for a federal disaster declaration because of drought conditions and a bad fire season in Nevada.
"The entire state has suffered extensive damage due to drought which has only been compounded by widespread wildfires during the 2007 season," Gibbons said in a letter to federal Agriculture Secretary Chuck Conner.

Boyd Spratling, head of the Nevada Cattlemen's Association, said the declaration sought for all 17 counties in the state would help ranchers get funds to make up for loss of production and to transport livestock to other areas where there's more feed.

According to statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center, 777 wildland fires in Nevada this year burned about 895,000 acres. The acreage doesn't include the Angora fire that burned 3,100 acres and destroyed 254 homes on the west side of Lake Tahoe in California.

While the fire season has been a bad one, this year's Nevada total is less than the 1.3 million acres charred last year, and well below the record 1999 fire season when 1.6 million acres burned.

The state Wildlife Department has said drought conditions and the cyclical relationship between wildland fires and invasive weeds that fuel them perpetuate problems for Nevada's high-desert landscape.    (Media Sources)

No Backup If Atlanta's Faucets Run Dry

With the South in the grip of an epic drought and its largest city holding less than a 90-day supply of water, officials are scrambling to deal with the worst-case scenario: What if Atlanta's faucets really do go dry?

So far, no real backup plan exists. And there are no quick fixes among suggested solutions, which include piping water in from rivers in neighboring states, building more regional reservoirs, setting up a statewide recycling system or even desalinating water from the Atlantic Ocean.

Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue seems to be pinning his hopes on a two-pronged approach: urging water conservation and reducing water flowing out of federally controlled lakes.  Perdue's office on Friday asked a Florida federal judge to force the Army Corps of Engineers to curb the amount of water draining from Georgia reservoirs into Alabama and Florida. And Georgia's environmental protection director is drafting proposals for more water restrictions.  But that may not be enough to stave off the water crisis. More than a quarter of the Southeast is covered by an "exceptional" drought - the National Weather Service's worst drought category. The Atlanta area, with a population of 5 million, is smack in the middle of the affected region, which extends like a dark cloud over most of Tennessee, Alabama and the northern half of Georgia, as well as parts of North and South Carolina, Kentucky and Virginia.

State officials warn that Lake Lanier, a 38,000-acre north Georgia reservoir that supplies more than 3 million residents with water, is already less than three months from depletion. Smaller reservoirs are dropping even lower, forcing local governments to consider rationing.

State water managers say there is more water available in the lake's reserves. But tapping into it would require the use of barges, emergency pumps and longer water lines. And some lawmakers fear if the lake is drained that low, it may be impossible to refill.  The Corps, which manages the water in the region, stresses there's no reason to think Atlanta will soon run out of water.

"We're so far away from that, nobody's doing a contingency plan," said the deputy commander of the Corps' Mobile office. "Quite frankly, there's enough water left to last for months. We've got a serious drought, there's no doubt about it, anytime you deplete your entire storage pool and tap into the reserve."
But, he said, any calls to stockpile bottled water would be "very premature."

Still, some academics and politicians are proposing contingency plans in case the situation worsens.
Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin said the region should explore piping in additional sources of water - possibly from the Tennessee or Savannah rivers. She even suggested desalinating sea water from Georgia's Atlantic coast.  "We need to look beyond our borders," she said.

It seems the idea of building state reservoirs is gaining steam in the Legislature as Georgia's battle with the Corps over federal reservoirs heats up.  Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle said he favors building more regional reservoirs shared by multiple communities to harness the 50 trillion gallons of water that fall over Georgia each year.

Some academics say Georgia should start using more "purple water" - waste water that is partially treated and can be used for irrigation, fire fighting and uses other than drinking. That would conserve lake water and help replenish the water-supply system.  Such measures could make Georgia "drought-proof," said a professor of hydrology and water resources at the University of Georgia.

The drought has led to extreme conservation measures.  Virtually all outdoor watering across was banned across the northern half of the state, restaurants were asked to serve water only at a customer's request and the governor called on Georgians to take shorter showers. The state's environmental director, said it's "very likely" new limits on water usage are needed.

Scorching summer temperatures and a drier-than-normal hurricane season fueled the drought. The state climatologist said it will take months of above average rainfall to replenish the system. He is now predicting the drought could worsen if "La Nina" conditions develop and bring little winter rainfall.
"I tell people we need 40 days and 40 nights," he said with a sigh.    (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm KIKO:

• At 2:00 am PDT (5:00 am EDT), October 20, 2007 a tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the Pacific coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes.
  
• The center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located about 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 435 miles southeast of Cabo san Lucas, Mexico.
  
• Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with the center of Kiko remaining offshore and moving parallel to the Pacific coast of Mexico.
  
• Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph. with higher gusts. Kiko could become a hurricane by Sunday, October 21, 2007.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
  
• Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are possible along portions of the Pacific coast of Mexico in regions of onshore flow.
  
• Kiko is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over portions of western Mexico.  Life-threatening flash floods and mud slides are possible over mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On October 19, 2007, Amendment number 1 to FEMA-1729-DR for Illinois has been approved. Three counties were added for Public Assistance.

On October 19, 2007, Amendment number 1 to FEMA-1723-DR for Oklahoma has been approved. One county was added for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)