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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: The next in a series of Pacific storms driven by a fast moving jet stream will hit the Pacific Northwest today. This wet pattern should hold for the remainder of the week for areas north of San Francisco. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are forecast from Coast to the Cascades and interior sections will pick up to one inch. Snow levels will lower to around 4,500 feet today and down to around 3,000 feet by Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to drop slowly throughout the week.

Midwest: A weakening storm system is moving across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with a cold front extending southward to the Texas Gulf Coast. Steady light to moderate rain should occur across the western Great Lakes, while scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Ohio Valley. Behind the storm system, rivers from southern Iowa to northeastern Kansas to will recede below flood stage. However, forecasts of additional moderate to heavy rain during the second half of the week increases the flood threat for the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

South: The weakening storm system over the Midwest will produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity east of the Mississippi River into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast. Providing some relief to the drought in the region. A low pressure trough will produce precipitation over central Texas. Temperatures through the entire week should run above average with highs mostly in the upper 70s to near 90.

Northeast: High pressure will produce dry conditions over most of the region except for isolated showers this evening over western New York and western Pennsylvania. High temperatures will range from 50s in the north and up to 80 in the south.(National Weather Service, Media reports)

TOPOFF 4: Exercising National Preparedness

Top Officials 4 (TOPOFF 4) is the Nation's premier terrorism preparedness exercise, involving top officials at every level of government, as well as representatives from the international community and private sector. Taking place October 15-19, 2007, the TOPOFF 4 Full-Scale Exercise (T4 FSE) will feature thousands of federal, state, territorial, and local officials. These officials will engage in various activities as part of a robust, full-scale simulated response to a multi-faceted threat.
The exercise will address policy and strategic issues that mobilize prevention and response systems, require participants to make difficult decisions, carry out essential functions, and challenge their ability to maintain a common operating picture during an incident of national significance.(FEMA HQ)

Texas Flooding

On Monday a cold front produced strong thunderstorms, one to five inches of rain in parts of North Texas and produced widespread flooding across Dallas and Collin counties. This was in addition to the scattered precipitation the area received on Sunday. The heavy rains pushed the Elm Fork of the Trinity River in Carrollton, along with White Rock Creek to flood stage. About 20,000 electric customers were without power about 10 a.m. Monday, according to Oncor Electric Delivery, but that number was down to about 5,000 by mid-afternoon, scattered across the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
The morning thunderstorms caused airlines to cancel about 110 flights out of 950 at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. By the afternoon, airport officials said schedules were getting back to normal with delays easing from 90 minutes to about 30 minutes. There was no requests for federal assistance. (National Weather Service, News Media)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Disorganized showers accompany a weak area of low pressure over the Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico.  Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development of this system over the next couple of days as it moves northwestward. Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected here or elsewhere during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical Depression Fifteen E is quasi stationary about 430 miles southwest of Manzanillo Mexico. Based on the current warning this system poses no threat to land.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake occurred at 4:53 AM EDT. The magnitude 4.2 event occurred 3 miles north of Wrightwood, California, at a depth of 1.7 miles. No reports of any injuries or damages.

On Monday, October 15, 2007 at 8:29 am EDT a 6.8 earthquake occurred 65 miles west northwest of Queenstown, New Zealand, at a depth of 15 miles.  At 5.28 pm EDT on October 15, 2007 a 6.0 earthquake occurred 60 miles west northwest of Queenstown, New Zealand, at a depth of 24 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and there was no tsunami generated. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The JFO for 1719-Wisconsin has been approved to close as of COB October 31, 2007. (FEMA Regions, HQ)