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National Situation Update: Monday, October 15, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:
A series of disturbances will follow the jet stream and bring showers to the Pacific Northwest.  The Southwest remains dry and warm.

Midwest:
A storm system lifts northward from northeastern Kansas to southern Minnesota bringing chilly rain and showers to the western Great Lakes and northern Plains.  Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Chicago to Kansas City southward and temperatures in the 40s and 50s in the north and upper 60s to mid 70s in the south.

South:
A cold front sweeps into the southern Plains and eastern Texas with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms.   Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Rainfall could be locally heavy.  Temperatures should be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Northeast:
A few showers are possible in northern Maine.  Temperatures should be in the 50s to lower 60s north and upper 60s to near 80 south. (National Weather Service, Media reports)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
The area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has moved inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Development of this system is not expected while it is over land.
Shower activity remains disorganized in association with the weak area of low pressure over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, centered about 325 miles south-southwest of Jamaica.  This system is expected to continue moving westward without significant development due to strong upper-level winds.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. 

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical Depression Fifteen E is centered about 272 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Moderate easterly shear is continuing to affect the cyclone.  Global models suggest that there may be some abatement of the shear over the next day or two, which would allow for some strengthening.  This area is the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There were no significant earthquakes in the United States during the last 24 hours just typical "ring of fire" activity in Alaska.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, RX RRCC)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The JFO for 1719-Wisconsin has been approved to close as of COB 31 October. (FEMA Regions, HQ)