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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 14, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: A trough extending westward from the low over Kansas will produce heavy rain over eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Snow levels will lower to 6,000 feet with six to 12 inches of snow likely above 7500 feet.

Midwest: A low over Kansas has a cold front extending south towards El Paso, Texas and a warm front extending eastward towards Chicago, Illinois.  North of the warm front, heavy rain (one to four inches) will spread eastward across southern South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, the southern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms are forecast from southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa to northern Texas. High temperatures will range from the 40s over the north-central states to the 80s in the Ohio Valley.

South: The cold front will produce strong thunderstorms over Oklahoma and Texas. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for southern Florida, especially the Keys. Much of the region will see highs in the 80s.

Northeast: The low pressure system over Canada will produce showers and some snow in higher elevations across Upstate New York and northern New England before moving east of the region tomorrow. High temperatures will range from the 40s along the Canadian border to the 70s south of the Mason-Dixon Line. (National Weather Service, Media reports)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some slow development before the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or so. Heavy rains are expected to continue over Central America for the next few days, especially over portions of the Pacific Coast.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. 

Eastern and Central Pacific:
A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 400 miles South-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico continues to show signs of organization. Upper level winds are expected to become more favorable and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. This area is the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Depression 18W (Lingling) is located approximately 760 miles west-northwest of Midway Island and is forecast to become an extratropical low within 12 hours.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

There were no significant earthquakes in the United States during the last 24 hours just typical "ring of fire" activity in Alaska.

On Saturday, October 13, 2007 at 1:45 pm EDT an earthquake measuring 6.1 struck about 85 miles east northeast of Tadine, Loyalty Island, New Caledonia at a depth of 25 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and there was no tsunami generated.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, RX RRCC)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
States Most Affected: None.
National Fire Activity:  as of Friday, October 12, 2007:

• Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 102 new fires.
• New large fires:  8
• Large fires contained: 5
• Uncontained large fires: 3
• 2007 acres burned to date: 8,245,535  (National Interagency Coordination Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The JFO for 1719-Wisconsin has been approved to close as of COB 31 October. (FEMA Regions, HQ)