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National Situation Update: Sunday, October 7, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:  The next Pacific front will slide into the Northwest today, bringing rain and snow in higher elevations. Snow levels are expected to remain above 7000 feet in the Cascades - above most pass levels. Fire danger will be high in the L.A. Basin, as offshore winds with gusts to 70 mph are possible below passes and canyons this morning decreasing tonight and tomorrow. A red flag warning has been posted.

Midwest:  In the Plains, a cold front will make slow progress, producing rain and thunderstorms from Minnesota to Kansas. But widespread severe weather is not anticipated. The heat and drought will continue for at least two more days in the Ohio Valley. Several cities may have record highs, including Covington, KY. Cincinnati OH, Louisville, KY., Indianapolis, IN., St. Louis MO., and Chicago IL.

South:  A dome of high pressure aloft will continue to prevent the development of t-storms over the drought areas of the Tennessee Valley.  On the southern periphery of this ridge of high pressure, scattered thunderstorms are forecast from South Carolina to Florida to the Upper Texas Coast.  A dry cold front will slowly slide into the Southern High Plains.  Temperatures will remain warm for early October, with 90s possible in parts of the Carolinas, Florida, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains

Northeast: A backdoor cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms over New England and sliding southward into the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Highs north of the front will range from 50s to the 60s over much of New England. South of the front highs could reach the 90s south of the Mason-Dixon Line.  (National Weather Service, Media reports)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
An area of disturbed weather associated with a surface trough and Upper-level low is centered about 200 miles north-northwest of Puerto Rico.  This system remains poorly organized and development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as it moves slowly northwestward.

Shower activity over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad area of low pressure centered between Honduras and the Cayman Islands.  Environmental conditions appear to support further development of this system over the next few days as the low remains nearly stationary.

An area of low pressure is centered about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development and this low is expected to move slowly northwestward over the next few days. 

Convection associated with a non-tropical low pressure area located about 625 miles north-northeast of the Azores has diminished somewhat this evening.  Development is not anticipated due to the system moving quickly northward over progressively cooler waters.

Elsewhere, Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central and Western Pacific:
Typhoon 17W (Krosa) is approximately 86 miles Northwest of Taipei, Taiwan and poses no threat to United States territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the United States during the last 24 hours. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
States Most Affected: None.
National Fire Activity: as of Friday, October 5, 2007:

• Initial Attack Activity: Light with 107 new fires.
• New large fires:  1
• Large fires contained: 3
• Uncontained large fires: 0
• 2007 acres burned to date: 8,245,535.
• Current Situation:  Gusty winds are expected today over a wide area from the southern California mountains across the southern Great Basin and into Colorado and Wyoming. Gusty offshore winds are on tap this weekend over portions of southern California. The Southeast will see scattered showers today and Saturday with generally warm, dry weather in the Northeast. (National Interagency Coordination Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)