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National Situation Update: Thursday, October 4, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Activity

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the drought-suffering portions of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee.  Showers and storms are expected throughout much of Florida.  Most of Texas will remain dry.  High temperatures should approach the 80s and 90s through most of the south. 

Northeast
Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected throughout the northeast. 

Midwest
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in Kentucky and the lower Ohio Valley.  Late-day storms could impact parts of Kansas.  Temperatures are expected to range from the 60s, in parts of the Dakotas, northern Minnesota, and sections of Michigan to the 90s in the Ohio Valley, much of Kentucky and southwest Kansas.

West
Showers and cooler weather will persist in the Pacific Northwest, far northwest California and Montana tomorrow, with the most widespread precipitation prevailing west of the Cascades, Washington. (NOAA,  NWS, media sources)

California Sink Hole Update

The California Office of Emergency Services confirmed a fifty foot by twelve foot deep sink hole in La Jolla, California, which destroyed two homes and caused damage to others in the area of Soledad Mountain Road and Palomino Circle.  Several hundred customers were without power yesterday, most have been restored. A gas line is also located in the sink hole, with no leaks; however, the land is still unstable and moving.  At least 19 homes have mandatory evacuations, and the American Red Cross has established a shelter, at La Jolla High School.  No injuries have been reported. (California State Warning Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure in the east-central Gulf of Mexico remains minimal.  This system has a well defined low-level circulation and could become a tropical or sub-tropical depression during the next day or so; it is moving generally northwestward at about 10 mph. 

Cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic and portions of The Bahamas are associated with a broad surface trough.
Upper level winds appear to be somewhat favorable for development.  This system is expected to begin a slow westward motion on Thursday. 

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located approximately 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands; upper level winds are expected to gradually become less favorable for development.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Melissa are located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Bermuda; significant redevelopment is not expected.

Eastern, Central, and Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Several earthquakes have occurred near Kodiak, Alaska in the last 24 hours.  A 5.1 magnitude quake occurred at 10:06 a.m. EDT on October 3, 2007, 53 miles northeast of Kodiak City, Alaska at a depth of 11 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries.  No tsunami watches or warnings have been issued. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, RX RRCC)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  1
States Most Affected:  Kentucky (1), Virginia (1).
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, October 3, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 148 new fires.

New large fires:  1
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 1
2007 acres burned to date: 8,239,734

Current Situation
There is minimal large fire activity nationally.  There are no fires, complexes, or Wildland Fire Use fires reported over 500 acres in size.  Nationally, there are no Incident Management Teams assigned. Most Geographic Areas have low to moderate fire danger.  There is little to no commitment of national fire management resources. (National Interagency Coordination Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)