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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Activity

South
Most of the southern United States will remain dry today. Across the Florida Peninsula winds will import moisture off the Atlantic producing downpours and thunderstorms. West Texas can expect widely scattered showers and storms.

Northeast
The northeastern United States can expect isolated showers or storms. Most of the region will remain dry with temperatures at or above seasonal averages.

Midwest
A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest, particularly in and around the Mississippi Valley, southward to Kansas and Missouri.

West
A quick paced Pacific front will cause showers and mountain snow over much of the Northwest north of a Eugene-Boise line.

Monthly Weather Outlook:

30-Day Outlook for October
Traditional statistical tools indicate above average temperatures across most of the lower 48 states and Alaska for October.  Model guidance supports a broad area of relative warmth across much of the northeastern quarter of the continental U.S. The extended-range guidance also suggests near to below normal temperatures for the southwest

Models forecast above average precipitation over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and below average over the desert southwest.  Dryness over the southwest will be dependent upon late season eastern pacific tropical cyclone activity.  Models also predict above average precipitation over northern and central California, northern Nevada and also over the upper Mississippi Valley.  

Extended-range model guidance indicates an increase in storm activity up the coast for Washington and Oregon, and the possibility of tropical activity and onshore flow for the south Atlantic coast.   The official outlook features above average precipitation along the Gulf and south Atlantic coasts from the upper Texas coast to the Virginia capes, including Florida, and below average precipitation over the southwestern states.  

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Squally weather is occurring over portions of Central and South Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic and southeastern Gulf. This system has some potential for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Juliette
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Juliette.  The tropical depression is dissipating about 360 miles west of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Juliette is forecast to diminish to a remnant low early Tuesday Morning, October 2, 2007.

This system poses no threat to the United States.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level is at Level 1.  As of Monday, 1 October 2007, the National Fire activity is light with 135 new fires. The National Interagency Fire Fighting Center is reporting three new large fires with one large contained. There are two uncontained large fires.  A total of  8,227,255 acres have burned in 2007.(National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)