National Situation Update: Friday, September 28, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather Summary
Northeast
A cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tonight and Friday morning while tropical moisture and a weak low move northward just offshore.
Eastern sections of Long Island and New England could receive heavy rain, due to the coastal system.
Thunderstorms could turn severe (damaging wind gusts) over the region from Maine to the Virginias into tonight as the cold front presses eastward.
On Friday, showery rains will linger over New York and New England as the showers end over the Mid-Atlantic.
South
After widely scattered thunderstorms across the Deep South this evening, the cold front will rapidly move toward the northern Gulf and northern Florida and move off the Southeast Coast by Friday.
Any rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms will be pretty much confined to the Florida peninsula and south Texas Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
A few thunderstorms will occur over areas west of the Mississippi River Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures over the next 6 days will trend to average or slightly below across Georgia, the northern Gulf Coast and Florida, but remain above average from the southern Plains, through the Tennessee Valley, to the Carolinas.
Midwest
High pressure will dominate the Plains and Midwest Friday as the last showers move to the northeast sections of Michigan and Ohio.
A few thunderstorms will remain in the Upper Midwest Monday as the front dissipates and the low pressure area heads through the Great Lakes and into Ontario.
A second cold front will arrive in the high Plains Monday and reach the Mississippi Valley Tuesday, bringing more thunderstorms from Minnesota, Upper Michigan and Wisconsin to Kansas and Missouri.
This front will weaken by Wednesday in the Great Lakes as a third cold front arrives in the Plains.
West
A series of at least three Pacific cold fronts will move through the West over the next five days.
Behind each front, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average, which means 30s and 40s at times in the Cascade, Bitterroot, Teton and Wasatch Mountains and 50s in the lower elevations from Washington and Oregon to Montana.
Each front will bring showery rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin and the northern and central Rockies.
The fronts will kick up gusty winds across most of the West, enhancing the fire danger.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Lorenzo
At 4:00 am CDT, September 28, 2007, the government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane warning from Palma Sola to Cabo Rojo to a Tropical Storm Warning.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz has been discontinued.
At 4:00 am CDT, September 28, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located about 30 miles south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.
TS Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 7 mph. A motion toward the west-northwest is expected today, which will bring TS Lorenzo farther inland over east-central Mexico.
The center of TS Lorenzo made landfall at about 12:00 am CDT, September 28, 2007, about 40 miles south-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast today as TS Lorenzo proceeds inland, and this small system will likely become a Tropical Depression later today and dissipate by tonight or early tomorrow.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).
Storm surge flooding of two-to-four feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, is expected near and to the north of where the center has made landfall. Tide levels should return to near normal later today or tonight.
TS Lorenzo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of five-to-10 inches, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over portions of east-central Mexico.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Karen
At 5:00 am EDT, September 28, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located about 755 miles east of the Windward Islands.
TS Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible during the next 24 hours due to strong upper-level winds.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles, mainly to the east from the center.
The five day track projection keeps the center on a fairly straight northwesterly track, about 1,000 miles to the east of San Juan, PR and by Tuesday, October 2, 2007, approximately 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
A tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde islands is generating intermittent shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
The area of low pressure located about 325 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and this system could become a Tropical Depression within the next day or two as it moves toward the west-northwest.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific:
Nothing to report.
Western Pacific:
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for the area of convection approximately 470 nm east of Manila, Philippines. Conditions will allow for convective development to increase. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 1
States Most Affected: Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 27, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity: Light with 101 new fires.
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres: 1
2007 acres burned to date: 8,159,133
Weather Discussion: Warmer and drier conditions will continue today over most of the west except for showers in the Northwest. The Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic states will see rain with generally dry weather across the rest of the east. (National Interagency Coordination Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Friday, 28-Sep-2007 07:47:10 EDT