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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest: 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for portions of the Midwest, particularly Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and northeast Missouri, as a cold front pushes through the region.
Eastern Kentucky, the upper Ohio Valley, and western sections of the High Plains should stay dry. High temperatures should range from the 50s in Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and northwest Iowa to the 90s in the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky.

West:
Much of the western United States is expected to be rain-free on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures should prevail across the Interior West while the Southwest is forecasted to be hot.  The Pacific Northwest should have mild temperatures through the early part of the week.  Highs should range from the 40s in parts of Wyoming to the 90s in southwest Arizona and the lower Colorado River Valley.  California's Central Valley should see temperatures in the 80s.

South:
Tropical moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico should produce frequent showers across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Mississippi, and extreme eastern Texas.  Additionally, moisture from the Atlantic is expected to continue to stream into the Florida Peninsula, resulting in frequent showers and thunderstorms.  Showers and storms may also extend along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.  High temperatures across the region should range from the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Northeast:
The Northeast should be rain-free on Tuesday, with temperatures well above seasonal averages.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to enter the region on Wednesday and reach the coast by Thursday as a cold front advances eastward.  Highs are forecasted to generally be in the 80s, with some portions of upstate New York reaching the 90s. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Karen
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located about 1565 miles east of the Windward Islands.  Tropical Storm Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.  Computer modeling suggests that this system will eventually make a turn to the north northwest and track away from the United States.

Low Pressure Area 1
Shower activity with an area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is minimal at this time.  However, upper level winds are expected to become more favorable for development and this system could become a tropical depression over the next day or so as it drifts slowly and erratically.

Low Pressure Area 2
Shower activity with a second area of low pressure, situated in the Lesser Antilles, has diminished this evening.  This system still has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it moves northwestward through the Leeward Islands at about 15 mph.  The low is expected to bring squally weather to portions of the Leeward Islands through Tuesday and into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday.  Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 5.2 earthquake occurred in the Northern Yukon Territory, Canada, 279 miles east northeast of Fairbanks, AK on September 24, 2007, at 7:26 pm EDT.  Reported depth was 0.0 miles (poorly constrained). There have been no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)  

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:  2
• States Most Affected:  Idaho 
• National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 24, 2007:
  • Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 55 new fires.
  • New large fires:  1
  • Large fires contained:  1
  • Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  6
  • 2007 acres burned to date: 8,155,743

Weather Discussion:  Dry weather is expected for most of the West except for showers over Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and eastern Montana.  Dry weather is also forecast from the Appalachian Mountains to New England.  (National Interagency Coordination Center).

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)