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National Situation Update: Friday, September 21, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Invest 93L Response Preparation/Actions

A Warning Order was published alerting the FEMA-NRCC Activation Team for possible activation pending further development of Invest 93L.

The NRCC is maintaining contact with FEMA Regions IV and VI and the Hurricane Liaison Team and other Federal agencies.

Region IV
Federal Actions:
The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Thomasville, GA activated at Level III, September 19, 2007 at 0700 EDT to monitor INVEST 93L.  Hours of operation will be 0700 - 1900 EDT until further notice.

Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) will operate 24/7 at Level 3 starting at 7:00 am CDT, Friday, September 21, 2007.

The RRCC is prepared to transition to 24/7 operations. Staff have been rostered.

R-IV RNA Team is on alert.

R-IV State Response Liaisons have been identified and put on alert status. States are not requesting liaisons at this time based on current plans.

Two (2) ERT-A teams have been identified.
 
All ESFs are being updated on current situation and status.
 
Status Briefings will be published at 1200 EDT, with updates on an as required basis.

Contact with the affected States is being maintained. Staff will continue to participate on all conference calls as required.

The Resources Unit is activated at the R-IV RRCC in Atlanta.  Current Resource Unit Status Report attached.

HHS Assessment:

There are no requests for any HHS assets at this time.
FEMA Region IV is not activating ESF-8.
Florida - no anticipated requests at this time.
Alabama - No SMN shelter shortfalls, possible shortfall ground ambulance - unknown number for Special Medical Needs (for Category Five, it could be in the hundreds), hospitals will shelter in place, no staffing issues at this time.
Mississippi - Health Department will staff two-to-three Special Medical Needs shelters inland, transportation gap not known, although possible ground ambulance (140 estimated SMN evacuees), hospitals will shelter in place.
 

State Status: 
Florida - Level III (Monitoring)
FDEM SERT conducted a situation awareness briefing at the Florida SEOC at 9:00 a.m. EDT, Thursday, September 20, 2007.

Alabama - Level IV (Monitoring)
No plans to activate at this time. Prepared to take necessary action as needed.  Planning to participate in conference call with Louisiana regarding evacuation plan(s).

Mississippi - Level IV (Monitoring)
Conducting conference calls with lower six counties and one inland host county.  Discussing issues and resource needs.  Ready to push personnel (including National Guard) to lower counties. (FEMA Region IV)

Region VI
Federal Actions:
FEMA Region VI activated the Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) at Level 3 at 8:00 a.m. CDT Thursday, September 20, 2007, during normal duty hours.

RRCC will start 24/7 operations at 12:00 pm CDT, September 21, 2007.

FEMA State Liaison for Texas reported to the SOC at 8:00 am CDT, Friday, September 21, 2007.
 
The Region is in communication with Texas and Louisiana and the National Weather Service, and is monitoring Texas and Louisiana conference calls.

Region VI has activated ESF-8 and the DCO.

Reviewing ERT-A and RRCC rosters for activation, if necessary.

The Warm Cell in Louisiana is in contact with the State EOC.

Region VI Logistics is making initial coordination with the LRC.

Maintaining coordination with ESFs.

HHS Assessment:
There are no requests for any HHS assets at this time.
FEMA Region VI has not activated ESF-8, but has requested ESF-8 presence in warm JFO in Louisiana.  HHS will travel personnel on September 21, 2007, to Louisiana.

The ERT-A rostering in FEMA Region VI includes ESF-8 in case the decision is made to send the ERT-A to Louisiana.

Louisiana - levees are still weak, threat is unknown, and there are extensive FEMA trailer communities that would be at risk.  Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals has stated there is no need for HHS liaison at this time.  They will advise if this changes.

For Category Two Hurricane, it is not expected that hospitals or nursing homes would evacuate.  The one exception may be a nursing home in Plaquemines.  If 93L reaches Category Two status, the state is expected to activate state transportation contracts, open state-managed medical special needs shelter(s) if needed, and provide staff and services, as required.
With local plans and resources under contract in Louisiana, it is not anticipated that Federal ESF-8 resources would be required.

Texas - No anticipated requests at this time.

State Status:
Louisiana -
The Governors Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is closely monitoring Invest 93L. Some weather sources indicate that this disturbance could develop into a tropical system as it makes its way across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Monitoring the situation and conducting conference calls with local jurisdictions.  The Unified Command Conference Call will be at 6:00 am CDT, with the next Southeast Parishes call at 10:00 am CDT, and the Southwest Parishes call at 11:00 am CDT on Friday, September 21, 2007.

Department of Social Services can set up shelters within eight hours of notification.

A preparatory state of emergency went out at 6:00 pm CDT, September 20, 2007, with an Emergency Alert System (EAS) going out at the same time.

Coastal parishes do not anticipate needing state assistance, with the possible exception of Plaquemines Parish, which has requested that the shelters there be stocked with commodities Friday, September 21, 2007.

Three coastal parishes are preparing to move up to 300 inmates.

State EOC activated at 6:00 pm CDT, September 20, 2007, at Level Three, with a minimum of one person manning each ESF.

GOHSEP is in contact with the Governor and has reached out to Louisiana State University (LSU) Hurricane Center for analysis and input.

No anticipated states of emergency at this time.

GOHSEP has activated its Crisis Action Team, which is a sub-Level Three form of readiness:

FEMA liaison is present at the EOC.

Current planning and war gaming by the State is for a Tropical Storm.  Concerns include:
Evacuation of low-lying areas, trailer populations and some special needs citizens in St. Bernard, Orleans, lower Plaquemines, lower Jefferson, lower St. Tammany, Lafourche and Terrebone Parishes.

Estimate is a maximum of 100, 000 people evacuating.
A possible request for a pre-landfall declaration based on the status of levees.

New Orleans planning for a Tropical Storm:
Shelters will be opened in Orleans Parish 12 hours in advance of a Tropical Storm making landfall in the New Orleans area.

Unlikely the city will be evacuated (per Terry Ebbert, Director of Homeland Security).

Residents encouraged to ride out the storm in homes, rather than trailers.
Estimate 6,000 residents in trailers in Orleans Parish.
The city is currently planning for three shelters to accommodate 1,000+ citizens.

Possible Federal assistance or support requirements in a Tropical Storm scenario are expected to be:
External Affairs messaging.
FEMA trailers - assistance in knocking on doors/leafleting.
Special needs - might need assistance with air ambulances.

For a Category Two Hurricane the state has indicated it is still investigate and war gaming this scenario and its impact on Southeast and Southwest Louisiana.
Coordinating with DSS to determine shelter needs in both a Southeast/Southwest landfall scenario.

A major evacuation of approximately 700,000 citizens would be expected for a Category II landfall.
The Warm Cell estimate is for 12,000 - 25,000 citizens.

Louisiana's validated anticipated requirements for Federal support in the event of either a Category I or II hurricane are:
A request, but not necessarily expect, full Federal assistance to include:
300 buses (100 buses put on call, but no cost to state unless actually activated).
100 ambulances.  (LA/GOHSEP/Region VI)

Texas - 
Initiated situational awareness calls Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 am CDT and 4:00 pm CDT daily until the storm has passed.

The State is making preparations for a possible storm landfall on the east coast of Texas.

The State SOC is activated at Level One.  (FEMA Region VI)

Broughton Fire - Skamania County, Washington

The fire started September 20, 2006, of unknown cause, in Skamania County, three miles west of White Salmon (Klickitat County), Washington.

The fire area is estimated at 250 acres with no containment reported.

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for 400 residents form 100 immediately threatened homes.  Five homes are reported damaged or destroyed.

Two miles of State Highway 14 are closed in both directions due to heavy smoke.

No injuries have been reported.

The fire is in rugged terrain with high winds.  Warm, dry and windy conditions will persist through September 21, 2007, before temperatures drop below 70 degrees on September 22, 2007, with a chance of precipitation.

An evacuation center is established at the Mill Community Center.  The State and County EOCs are activated and a State Fire Mobilization has been ordered.  A Type Two Incident Management Team is to assume command.  Local fire departments have committed 125 personnel, joined by 350 district fire personnel.  (FEMA Region X)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2731-FM-Washington approved at 2:06 am EDT, September 21, 2007 for the Broughton Fire in White Salmon, Washington.

The fire started Thursday, September 20, 2007, of unknown cause in Skamania County, three miles west of White Salmon (Klickitat County).  The fire is in an estimated 250 acres with no containment reported.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
The low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico has been slowly moving during the past few hours and is now located about 115 miles west of Tampa, Florida.
 
There has been no significant change in organization this evening, but bands of heavy squalls are forming to the north of the center, and are already affecting coastal sections of the Florida panhandle.
 
Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone at any time during the next 24 hours, as the low moves slowly toward the west-northwest.

All interests along the northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches and warnings could be promptly required for portions of this area on Friday.

Low Pressure Area
A nearly stationary non-tropical low located over the far northeastern Atlantic, about 1,000 miles east of Bermuda, is being monitored for signs of tropical development.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane IVO
Interests in the southern Baja Peninsula should monitor the progress of Hurricane Ivo.

Ivo is located about 465 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest at 8 mph, with an estimated minimum central pressure 980 MB.  Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph with gusts to 98 mph. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression 13E
Tropical Depression 13E is located about 1,300 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and is moving toward the west at 5 mph, with an estimated minimum central pressure 1,008 MB.  Maximum sustained winds are 29 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
At 11:00 pm EDT, September 20, 2007, Tropical Depression 14W was located approximately 420 nm north-northwest of Yap, and is tracking northwestward at 17 mph.

Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 35 mph, gusting to 46 mph.

Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1,004 mb.

Tropical Depression 14W is now the subject of a tropical cyclone warning. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho.
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 20, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 104 new fires.
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  8
2007 acres burned to date: 8,072,405

Weather Discussion:  Dry windy weather is expected over portions of the Great basin today. Showers are on tap for northern and central California, with a cool onshore flow in southern California. The Northwest and Idaho will be generally dry, with scattered showers for Montana.(National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)