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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:
A trough of low pressure is forecasted to become stronger as it heads out of the North Pacific down the coast of California causing below average temperatures from the Rocky Mountains to the coast.  A storm system forming along the British Columbia coast is expected to bring rain to the coastal sections of the Pacific Northwest.  Temperatures in some areas may run 20 degrees below normal or more with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Midwest:
A frontal boundry is forecasted to bring turbulent weather conditions across parts of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday causing strong to severe thunderstorms from eastern Colorado, northern New Mexico, and western Kansas to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flooding downpours are expected in some locations.  A southerly flow of warm air ahead of the front is expected to bring temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average in the mid to upper 80s.

South:
A strong high pressure system building out of the Northeast will combine with a trough of low pressure off the Florida Coast to produce a persistent northeasterly flow along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts.  This onshore flow is expected to combine with a stalled frontal boundary across the Deep South and could potentially bring heavy thunderstorms and rain over much of the Florida Peninsula.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s throughout most of the southern Region.

Northeast:
The high pressure over the Northeast that resulted in a number of record overnight lows continues to hover over the region causing temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s in many areas and to below freezing in upstate New York and western New England.  With plenty of sun and the dry air in place, temperatures should rise into the upper 60s to middle 70s in the afternoon.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Coast Guard Update - Kivalina, Alaska

On September 16, an on-scene assessment conducted by Coast Guard Sector Anchorage and Coast Guard Pacific Strike Team personnel revealed no excess fuel storage capacity in the village of Kivalina.  This makes the previous plan of shifting product from the most exposed tanks from the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC) no longer viable.  Sector Anchorage issued a Captain of the Port (COTP) order for AVEC to develop a contingency plan to remove the fuel from the threatened fuel farm using pre-positioned equipment. Sector Anchorage also issued a COTP order to the Kivalina School and to the General Store to develop sounding plans for the fuel tanks. USCG continues to monitor. (USCG)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
The remnants of Tropical Depression Ingrid are located just east of the northernmost Leeward Islands.  Redevelopment is not expected during the next couple of days as this system moves slowly northwestward.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extends from the east coast of Florida eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic and Bahamas.  This activity is associated with a tropical wave and an upper-level trough.  Conditions are currently unfavorable for development in this area but slow development is possible in a couple of days as the system moves westward over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas during the next day or two.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of low pressure centered about 450 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The circulation appears well-defined but the associated thunderstorm activity has been disorganized.  Conditions appear favorable for development of this system and it could become a tropical depression during the next day or two.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Texas:  Joint Individual Assistance (IA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) for Hurricane Humberto began Monday, September 17, 2007, in Jefferson, Galveston, and Orange Counties.  Joint Public Assistance (PA) PDAs began in Orange County on Monday, September 17, with additional counties expected to be added.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho 
National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 17, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 105 new fires.
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  15
2007 acres burned to date: 7,961,052

Weather Discussion:  Winds will decrease and cooler temperatures are predicted for southern California. Cooler weather and showers are also forecasted for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana.   (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)