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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 13, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Humberto

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Humberto was located about 60 miles northeast of Galveston Texas and about 25 miles northeast of High Island Texas.

A hurricane warning remains in effect from east of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from east of Cameron to Intracoastal City Louisiana. The hurricane and tropical storm warnings will likely be lowered or downgraded later this morning.

Humberto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.  This track will bring Humberto farther inland over eastern Texas and Louisiana.

Data from an air force reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts confined to a small area northeast of the center.  Humberto is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Humberto continues to move inland.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles northeast of the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.  An observing station at Beaumont Texas reported wind gusts to 60 mph. 

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected along the track of Humberto from southwestern to northeastern Louisiana across far southeastern Arkansas and into central and northern Mississippi
with isolated maximum accumulations of 15 inches possible.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 4 feet above normal tide levels most likely occurred near and to the east of where the center made landfall and should subside this morning.

Isolated tornadoes are possible in southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through this afternoon.

TEXAS:  ESF 9 SAR capabilities will be staged in Houston; a flood response team will be staged at Reliance Center. Mass Care agencies such as the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Texas Baptist Men, and more are currently on standby.  Conducting conference calls with local jurisdictions.  The next call will be at 1000 CDT on 09/13/07. The SOC is mobilizing the air ground support team, IMTs and coordinating with USCG if water rescue is required. 

LOUISIANA:  Monitoring the situation and conducting conference calls with local jurisdictions.  The next call will be at 1000 on 09/13/07. Crisis Action Team (CAT) is monitoring the situation. Minor flooding is expected along the main rivers. Currently, Parishes are not anticipating implementing any evacuations. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, FEMA Region VI)

National Weather Summary

West: Dry weather is forecast for the region as a cold polar high pressure area slides southward east of the Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms and showers are expected over the northern Rockies. High temperatures will range from the 50s in eastern Montana and northern Wyoming to over 110 in parts of southwest Arizona.

Midwest: A vigorous cold front moving eastward through the Upper Midwest and southward over the Great Plains will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over Minnesota and Wisconsin with activity spreading southward into Iowa later today. Gusty winds are forecast on either side of the front. High temperatures will range from the 40s across far northern North Dakota to the low 90s in extreme southwest Kansas.

South: Hurricane Humberto is moving ashore over southeastern Texas and western Louisiana. (check for latest). information at www.nhc.noaa.gov/  Rainfall totals could be significant, 5-10 inches, with some areas receiving 15 inches. Flooding is expected in the Houston-Galveston area and locations in and around Beaumont, Texas.  The storm will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms as far north as southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. A stationary frontal system extending from the Carolinas to Texas will produce scattered convection. High temperatures will range from the 80s to 90s in Florida, along the Rio Grande River, West Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Northeast: Under high pressure, sunny seasonal weather is forecast for the region.  High temperatures will range from 50s in northern Maine to the 80s in eastern Virginia. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Depression Eight
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 13.9 north, longitude 47.5 west, about 930 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and 1,260 miles southeast of Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts.  the depression has the chance to become a tropical storm later today.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave has formed about 600 miles south of Manzanillo Mexico.  Development, if any, is expected to be slow as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A minor earthquake occurred at 8:51 PM EDT on Wednesday, September 13, 2007. The magnitude 4.1 event occurred 8 miles north-northeast of Coalinga, California, at a depth of .2 miles. No reports of any injuries or damages.

A swarm of more than 20 earthquakes ranging from a magnitude 8.4, to 4.9 struck the southern Sumatra, Indonesia.  There have been media reports of damage, and a tsunami warning was issued. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana (10), Idaho (5).
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 12, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 74 new fires.
New large fires:  1
Large fires contained:  2
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  22
2007 acres burned to date: 7,418,909

Weather Discussion:  Dry and windy conditions prevail across eastern Washington, the Great Basin, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.  Warmer and drier conditions in combination with higher Haines Indices will continue in the Great Basin and eastern portions of Washington and Oragon.  Dry conditions will persist in the coastal mountains of southern California for one more day.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Texas:  The Governor of Texas has requested a major disaster declaration as a result of Tropical Storm Erin, for the period of August 14-20, 2007.  The Governor is specifically requesting Individual Assistance for eight counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  The Governor further requested direct Federal assistance. (FEMA Regions, HQ)