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National Situation Update: Sunday, September 9, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
Heavy rain is expected across northern and central Arkansas, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky, due to a stalled frontal boundary.  Tulsa has already picked up 7 inches of rain from late Friday through Saturday morning.

The Southeast will stay mainly hot and dry. 

Northeast
A cold front, with showers and thunderstorms, will move through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic between now and early next week.  Gabrielle should miss the region completely, heading away well east of the Mid-Atlantic by Monday.

Midwest
A slow-moving front will produce rain and thunderstorms over southern Missouri and from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes.  Parts of southern Missouri could see five inches of rain by September 9, 2007.  Areas from the Ohio Valley to Lake Erie could pick up between two and four inches of rain by September 10, 2007.  Another disturbance and cold front will result in rain from North Dakota to upper Michigan.  

West
There will be light showers and some mountain snow, especially in Montana and Wyoming through September 9, 2007. The Grand Tetons of Wyoming will see up to six inches of snow.  West of the Rockies, the region will be mainly dry in the upcoming week.

NASA and the U.S. Forest Service Join Forces Against Wildfires.

Ikhana, NASA's unmanned aircraft, departed from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, CA September 7 and flew for about 20 hours, providing a thermal-infrared imaging payload over 11 wildfires burning in central Washington, Oregon, and California. The flight, one of three made thus far, is part of the Western States Fire Mission, which is demonstrating improved wildfire imaging and mapping capabilities of the sophisticated imaging sensor and real-time data communications equipment developed at NASA's Ames Research Center.

The sensor is capable of peering through thick smoke and haze to record hot spots and the progression of wildfires over a lengthy period. The data is overlaid on Google Earth maps and down linked in near-real time to the Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, and made available to fire incident commanders to assist them in allocating their fire-fighting resources.

This is the third flight in a series of similar tests. The first flight captured images of California wildfires, including the huge Zaca Fire in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, while a second 16-hour flight Aug. 30-31 imaged five wildfires burning in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

• No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Gabrielle
At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located about 50 miles southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph.  A turn toward the north is expected later on September 09, 2007 with a turn to the northeast tonight.  On this track the center of Gabrielle should be moving over the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast prior to landfall.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on September 9, 2007 a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City North Carolina northward to Cape Charles Light Virginia including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.  A tropical storm watch remains in effect in southeastern Virginia for the lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.  Coastal storm surge flooding of two to three feet is possible within the warning area as Gabrielle passes near or over the coast.

Forecasted Local Impact of Tropical Strom Gabrielle
Coastal residents have been urged to take action to protect any property that may be threatened by tropical storm conditions.

As winds increase during the morning hours water levels will begin to increase along the coast. In addition astronomical tides will be higher than normal through September 9, 2007. A storm surge of two to three feet can be expected along coastal sections. The Pamlico and Neuse rivers will have storm surges of two to four feet. Along the south side of Albemarle Sound water level rises of one to two feet are expected. High tides will occur around 6 a.m. and 7 p.m.

Winds are expected to reach tropical storm strength along the coastal sections before sunrise and continuing into the evening hours. Maximum winds are expected to reach 40 to 45 mph on the Outer Banks and eastern Carteret County.

One to three inches of rain are expected across eastern North Carolina with isolated amounts of five inches possible. Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas can be expected.

Isolated tornadoes are possible along the Outer Banks as Gabrielle moves through the area.

Increasing swells from Gabrielle will combine with high astronomical tides to produce dangerous rip currents across area beaches.

Seas will continue at nine to 11 feet along the Outer Banks today. This will result in rough surf and minor beach erosion.

Tropical Wave
A Tropical Wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system has the potential for some development as it moves westward at about 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the remnants of Felix is located about 125 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm Danas
Tropical Storm 11W (DANAS) was located approximately 535 miles east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan, and had tracked northwestward at 17 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 58 mph gusting to 75 mph. Tropical storm activity is not expected to impact US interests during the next 48 hours.
(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A light undersea earthquake occurred at 11:34 p.m. EDT on Saturday, September 8, 2007. The magnitude 4.0 event occurred 26 miles southwest of Camp Pendleton South, CA at a depth of 1 mile. There were no reports of damage or injuries associated with this earthquake.  Nearby critical infrastructure includes the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station  located shore side of Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base. It provides 20% of electrical power to Southern California.
(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho.
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, September 8, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 145 new fires over 100 acres
New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  26
2007 acres burned to date:  7,311,601

Weather Discussion:  A warm, dry offshore flow is expected over northern California and western Oregon through the weekend. Dry weather will prevail over the Pacific Northwest, Idaho and western Montana today. Warmer temperatures are expected along the west coast states. The Southeast will see a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.(National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)