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National Situation Update: Friday, August 17, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Dean Moves Westward Towards Eastern Caribbean

At 5:00 am EDT Friday, the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.3 north, longitude 60.9 west, or in the St. Lucia channel between St. Lucia and Martinique.

Hurricane Dean, currently a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph, is moving toward the west at 24 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. 

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves, is possible near the center of Hurricane Dean. Across Puerto Rico storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected with maximum amounts of up to 5 inches.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 

State and Federal response:

• FEMA Region II Response Coordination Center (RRCC) was activated at Level I from 0800 to 1900 hours EDT on 16 Aug.  Two Emergency Response Team-Advanced (ERT-A) teams are operational on Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  The Defense Coordinating Officer (DCO) and the Defense Coordinating Element (DCE) are operating out of the RRCC.  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE) prime power has been activated for both the USVI and PR.  The Federal Incident Response Support Team (FIRST) arrived today in PR. A six-person Mobile Emergency Response Support (MERS) team with three MERS vehicles arrived in PR during the day Thursday, August 16. Additionally, one MERS person arrived in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. 

• State and local responders have command and control, with FEMA Region II, IV and VI providing federal support as requested. 

• Florida State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated at Level III and monitoring the storm. Texas and Louisiana are working closely with FEMA Region VI to prepare for developments relative to Hurricane Dean. 

National Forecast Summary

South
Tropical Depression Erin is expected to continue producing heavy rainfall in parts of Texas on Friday and possibly into Saturday. West Texas will be the area most affected by Erin's rainfall (3-6 inches). Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for much of south-central Texas for Friday. Houston and San Antonio metro areas received heavy rainfall from Erin on Thursday.

The South will continue to experience very high temperatures through the weekend, especially in the Gulf Coast area. High temperatures in most places will reach the 90s and 100s. Several parts of the South have posted heat-related advisories and warnings.

West:
The region will be generally hot and dry, especially in the interior Northwest. Low humidity, high temperatures, drought conditions and dry thunderstorms will continue to make it difficult for firefighters to gain control of the large wildfires in the region. 

Highs will range from the 60s in the Pacific Northwest to the 90s-100s in Colorado and New Mexico, to 115-120 in Death Valley.

Cool temperatures and light showers will be confined to the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon.

Midwest:
The northern Plains and Great Lakes areas may experience some thunderstorms through the weekend.

High temperatures will range from the 60s near the Canadian border to the 80s-90s in the central Plains to Kentucky. 

Northeast:
Cool air will move into the Northeast and remain during the next several days. Low temperatures in the 40-50s are forecast for upstate New York and New England Thursday evening.

High temperatures during the weekend will range from the 60s-70s in the Northeast to the 80s in the Mid-Atlantic area.(National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2721-FM-MT approved for Black Cat wildfire located 10 miles east of Missoula, Montana. Fire started August 14 caused by lightning. Fire threatens City of Missoula and 4 sub-divisions including 485 structures. Three hundred residents have been evacuated.

FEMA-2722-FM-HI approved for Waimea wildfire located on the Big Island of Hawaii. 139 homes are threatened and 100 people evacuated.   (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Hurricane Dean:  with winds near 100 mph is moving westward towards the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Erin:  with winds near 15-20 mph, is expected to continue producing heavy rainfall over west Texas on Friday and possibly into Saturday.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure about 300 miles south of Manzanillo Mexico has not become any better organized during Thursday evening. Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper level winds.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Super Typhoon Sepat:  located approximately 260 nautical miles east-southeast of Kaohsiung, Taiwan with winds near 150 mph is moving north-northwest towards Taiwan and does not pose any threat to U.S. territories.  ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

At least 20 aftershocks were recorded near the coast of central Peru during the past 24 hours following the 7.9 level earthquake that occurred 90 miles south-southeast of the capital of Lima, Peru at 23:41 UTC on August 15, 2007. The aftershocks ranged from 4.7 to 6.3 magnitude. There are no reports of significant earthquake activity affecting the U.S. or U.S. interests and no tsunami warnings have been generated.

Media reports indicate that Peruvian officials say the death toll from the quake exceeds 500 people and several hundred injured. (USGS, media sources)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 16, 2007:

New large fires: 7
Large fires contained: 5
Uncontained large fires: 56
2007 acres burned to date: 6,049,497

Weather Discussion:  Critical fire weather area for Nevada, Idaho, western Utah, eastern Oregon, and northeastern California due to drought, and hot dry weather. Critical fire weather area for Utah, Wyoming, southwestern Idaho, and eastern Nevada for dry thunderstorms.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)