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National Situation Update: Thursday, August 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Bird Flu Update

Vietnam has detected a bird flu outbreak in the northern province of Cau Ban bordering China. It's the country's second infection among poultry so far this month, the Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday. Bird flu has infected seven people in Vietnam so far this year, four of whom have died, bringing the dearth toll from 100 confirmed infections since late 2003 to 46, the Health Ministry said.

Indonesia confirmed its first human bird flu death on Bali on Monday, taking the nation's overall toll to more than 80 and raising fears of an impact on tourism, the economic lifeline of the island. The 29-year-old woman died at the weekend. Her five-year-old daughter died on August 3 suffering flu-like symptoms and her body was cremated before samples were taken for testing, but officials said it could be "assumed" she died due to the virus. (Various Media Sources)

National Weather Summary

West: The region will be generally hot and dry. Light showers are forecast for western Washington and western Oregon with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Colorado Rockies. Gusty winds are likely along the California coast, and over the higher elevations of southern Oregon, northern California and western Nevada. High temperatures will range from the 60s in the Colorado Rockies and along the coast to 110 in the deserts of southwest Arizona and southeast California. But temperatures over 100 will reach as far north as Boise, Idaho.

Midwest: A cold front draped across the central Midwest will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from eastern Ohio through the Ohio Valley into Iowa, Missouri and the central Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms may erupt in Ohio, Indiana, southeast Illinois and northern Kentucky. High temperatures will range from the 60s in northeast North Dakota, northern Minnesota and portions of Michigan's Upper Peninsula to over 100 in western Kentucky.

South: The region will remain in the grip of a heat wave. High temperatures in most places will reach the 90s and 100s but the rainy areas of Texas will be limited to the 80s. As discussed above Tropical Storm Erin will produce flooding on southern and southeastern portions of the state. Erin will also produce heavy downpours over southwestern Louisiana. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Florida Peninsula.

Northeast: A cold front extending from a low in Canada will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms much of the region. A few of the thunderstorms in southern New York, southwest Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, northern Virginia and West Virginia could turn severe - producing gusty winds, hail and possibly tornados. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s in far northern Maine to over 100 in south-central Virginia. (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity in the United States or its territories during the last 24 hours (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Erin
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 27.3 north, longitude 96.7 west or about 55 Miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas and about 180 miles southwest of Galveston, Texas. Based on the current warning the center of Erin will move ashore near Corpus Christi at 9:00 am EDT today.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to Brownsville.

Erin is moving erratically toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  A little strengthening is possible prior to landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles to the northeast of the center.

Total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected across much of central and southern Texas with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.

Storm surge of 2 to 3 feet above normal tide levels may be experienced in a few coastal locations to the north of where the center makes landfall.

Isolated tornadoes are possible along the middle Texas Gulf Coast.

State and Federal response:

• State of Texas is deploying search and rescue resources to central and south Texas. The Texas Military Forces (TXMF) activating three Blackhawk helicopters to support high water rescue operations. A total of 40 high profile vehicles are also being devoted to respond to the tropical storm. Six state swift water rescue teams are staged in San Antonio along with six helicopter rescue personnel staged with TXMF helicopters.
  
• FEMA NRCC at Level II activation. Region VI RRCC activated at Level III, increasing to level I, August 16. Texas State Operations Center (SOC)activated at Level I. FEMA liaison deployed to Texas SOC. FEMA hurricane liaison team activated at 1800 August 15.
  
• Conference calls are being conducted twice daily between Texas divisions of emergency management, the National Weather Service and Texas coastal jurisdictions to maintain maximum situational awareness of the potential threat.
  
• No request for federal support at this time.

Hurricane  Dean:
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 13.4 north, longitude 52.3 west or about 955  miles east-southeast of Puerto Rico. Based on the current warning Dean will pass approximately 170 miles south of Puerto Rico at 2:00 am EDT on Saturday, 18 August.

Dean is moving to the west near 24 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Dean is a Category 1 hurricane and some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Dean this afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 25 from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

State and Federal response:

• Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region II Response Coordination Center (RRCC) was activated at Level III from 08:00 to 17:00 on 15 Aug with Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) 3, 5, 6,8,15 and the Defense Coordinating Officer (DCO) and the Defense Coordinating Element (DCE) are operating out of the RRCC and on each Emergency Response Team-Advanced (ERT-A) located in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin islands (USVI). The ERT-A and Deputy Principal Federal Official (DFPO) for Puerto Rico (PR) is deployed to the Caribbean Area Division (CAD). DFPO is providing the Principal Federal Official (PFO) continuous updates on the situation. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) prime power has been activated for both the USVI and PR. FEMA HQ has deployed the Federal Incident Response Support Team (FIRST) and Mobile Emergency Response Support (MERS) to PR.
  
• State and local responders have command and control with FEMA Region II, IV and VI providing federal support as requested. FEMA's CAD is in contact with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) and Virgin Islands Emergency Management Agency (VIEMA).
  
• Members of the PR ERT-A participated in a meeting at the state EOC which included the commonwealth emergency support function representatives. A total of 52 PR emergency managers participated in this meeting to discuss preparedness actions, including commodity distribution.
  
• Florida State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated at Level III operations and monitoring the storm. Texas and Louisiana are working closely with FEMA region VI in preparing for Hurricane Dean. 
  
• The Federal Incident Response Support Team (FIRST) Atlanta will deploy to PR with MERS support.

Eastern Pacific:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco.  Development (if any) is expected to be slow to occur. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Flossie
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression Flossie was located near latitude 17.1 north, longitude 160.7 west or about 345 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Oahu.

Flossie is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Flossie is likely to dissipate during the next 12 hours.

State and Federal response: Based on the current warning Flossie poses no threat to Hawaii.

Western Pacific:
Super typhoon 09W (Sepat) is located approximately 500 miles southeast of Kaoshing, Taiwan and poses no threat to U.S. territories. ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A 5.8 magnitude earthquake occurred on Wednesday, August 15, 2007 at 11:03:05 PM (EST), about 184 miles South/southwest of Adak, AK at a depth of 13.9 miles. The earthquake occurred in a remote area, and no casualties or damages are expected.

A magnitude 7.9 earthquake occurred 90 miles south-southeast of the capital of Lima, Peru at 07:40 pm (EDT) UTC on August 15, 2007. It is the largest earthquake in more than three decades, possibly killing at least 30 people. There have been a significant number of aftershocks. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami warning for Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru; a tsunami watch for Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Panama, and a tsunami advisory for Hawaii.  While a localized tsunami may have been generated the watches and warnings have been canceled. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, NOAA, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center).

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:  5
• States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming
• National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, August 15, 2007:
  • Initial attack activity: Moderate (261)
  • New large fires: 10
  • Large fires contained: 10
  • Uncontained large fires: 53
  • 2007 acres burned to date: 5,992,549
• Weather Discussion: Winds decreasing today, however gusty winds will still be common over portions of northern California, southeast Oregon, Nevada, eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming. Isolated thunderstorms with limited moisture are possible over portions of Wyoming, southern Montana, eastern Idaho, and portions of Nevada. Hot, dry conditions will continue in southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)