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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

Midwest: Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through the central Plains. High temperatures in the 90s in the Great Lakes and the Midwest.

South: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours possible, from Savannah and Jacksonville, to Mobile and New Orleans, through Dallas, to Oklahoma City and Tulsa, and also Florida. High temperatures in the 90s from Charlotte and Atlanta through Nashville and Tennessee.

West: Evening showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Four Corners region which includes areas from Phoenix and Albuquerque through to Salt Lake City. Locally heavy downpours and strong gusty winds possible, especially in southern Arizona. A few thunderstorms possible in Montana as well. High temperatures will be in the 90s to 100 in the interior west.

Northeast: An isolated thunderstorm or two possible across far northern New England. High temperatures in the 90s.

Tropical Weather Activity

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
At 5:00 am EDT, July 31, 2007, the center of tropical depression three was located about 380 miles north of Bermuda and about 380 miles southeast of Chatham, Massachusetts.

The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph.  A turn to the northeast with a continued increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  The depression could become a tropical storm today before becoming extratropical late tonight or early Wednesday, August 1, 2007.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of low pressure centered about 950 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is moving west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.  Although this system remains disorganized upper-level winds could become more favorable for development over the next couple of days. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report. (NWS, National Hurricane Center)

Update: Montana and California Fire Situation

Hot, dry and windy weather have helped a wildfire near Glacier National Park grow to 5,100 acres as of July 30, 2007.  The blaze is at just two (2) percent contained and running into heavy timber.  Authorities have closed U.S. Highway 2 at East Glacier with some structures threatened and campgrounds and trails closed.  Near-record heat and low humidity also fueled blazes elsewhere in Montana, with similar conditions forecast for July 31, 2007. Of these, Philipsburg residents of 40 homes were ordered to leave in advance of a new blaze that had burned about 1,000 acres there. About 40 other outbuildings also were threatened.

Meanwhile, the state's largest fire, west of Augusta, grew to 30,000 acres - about 47 square miles. The blaze, burning since July 11, 2007, crossed fire lines in several other areas and was heading toward Benchmark in the western part of the state.

Elsewhere, the blaze that began on July 4, 2007, within California's Santa Barbara County has consumed 33,500 acres and is at 70 percent containment as of July 30, 2007.

In the Huron-Manistee National Forest in Michigan, 500 acres have burned with 20 percent containment.  Residences are threatned and evacuations and road closures are in effect. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 30, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Light (133 new fires)
• States Most Affected:  ID, MT
• New large fires: 6
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 34

Weather Discussion:  Increased coverage of thunderstorms across the West this week. Dry and windy conditions will continue today east of the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. A low pressure system will increase thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.  Mixed wet and dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the southern Great Basin into the deserts of southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)