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National Situation Update: Monday, July 30, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will strike much of the southern U S Monday, July 30, 2007.

Northeast:  Scattered showers and storms are forecast for the northeastern U. S. today, July 30, 2007 from eastern and southern New England southward through New Jersey and the eastern reaches of Pennsylvania into the DelMarVa, Virginia and West Virginia.

Midwest:  On the Plains, the Dakotas will be hot and dry today, July 30, 2007. Southern Nebraska may see showers or storms. Kansas will have locally heavy downpours in the central and eastern portions of the state underneath a slow-moving upper-air disturbance.

High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will be widespread, but places near the Montana border in North Dakota may reach 100.

West:  Scattered storms, mostly during the afternoon and evening, will build over the Four Corners states and Nevada today, July 30, 2007 in the higher elevations.

High temperatures will reach over 100 in a number of areas; eastern Montana, parts of northwest Nevada, the southern San Joaquin Valley, and the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. Death Valley could top 110.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Dead Birds Shut Down 3 DC Metro Stations

Three Metro train stations were briefly closed Sunday while hazardous materials crews investigated dozens of dead birds and a substance believed to be a commercial pest poison. No human injuries were reported.  All signs point to a contractor making a mistake, said a spokeswoman for the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. The poison was spread outside at least six Metro stations.

The FBI's joint terrorism task force and officials from the National Institutes of Health joined the investigation as reports of the dead birds increased during the day.  "They are observing it; they are gathering information," said a District of Columbia fire and EMS spokesman. "There is no indication at this point that this is an attack that has been aimed at people."

The issue raised public safety concerns because there were no details on what may have caused the problems or the contractor's name. No problems were expected during the Monday morning rush hour she said.  (Media Sources)

Montana Fire Spreads Nearly Unchecked

Hot, dry and windy weather helped a wildfire near Glacier National Park grow to roughly 5,000 acres on Sunday and continue to threaten an evacuated lodge.  The blaze had grown from 1,000 acres a day earlier and was just 2 percent contained, a fire information officer said. The fire was running into heavy timber.

Authorities reopened a highway near the park in northwestern Montana, but they warned that U.S. 2 could be closed again if the blaze flared up.

Guests and 18 workers at the Summit Station Lodge along the highway remained evacuated as flames burned within a mile. Fire crews were protecting the lodge and tearing down some trees that were close to cabins.  No other structures were threatened, but officials in Pondera County asked residents of Heart Butte to be prepared to evacuate if needed. The community of about 700 people is 18 miles southeast of the blaze.

Near-record heat and low humidity also fueled blazes elsewhere in Montana, with similar conditions forecast for Monday.  A fire north of Helena was keeping people away from recreation areas and homes. The blaze, which had charred nearly 10 square miles, was 10 percent contained on Sunday, July 29, 2007 fire managers said.

Elsewhere, a dozen homes were ordered evacuated Sunday in California's Santa Barbara County as a wildfire spread across 1,000 acres, continuing a new growth spurt for the nearly month-old blaze that had appeared to be standing still.  The blaze had charred about 32,000 acres, or 50 square miles, since it started July 4 and was 70 percent contained Sunday, July 29, 2007.

An evacuation order was issued for the Peachtree Community, about 12 homes spread over a wide area of the forest. Smoke drifted over Santa Barbara more than 40 miles away and was reported in Bakersfield some 80 miles away.   (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Researchers: Atlantic Tropical Storms Have Doubled

The number of tropical storms developing annually in the Atlantic Ocean more than doubled over the past century, with the increase taking place in two jumps, researchers say.  The increases coincided with rising sea surface temperature, largely the by-product of human-induced climate warming, according to the researchers. 

However, an official at the U.S. National Hurricane Center called the research "sloppy science" and said technological improvements in observing storms accounted for the increase.

The annual average jumped to 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes from 1931 to 1994. From 1995 to 2005, the average was 15 tropical storms and eight hurricanes annually.  Even in 2006, widely reported as a mild year, there were 10 tropical storms.  (Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is centered about 200 miles west of Bermuda.  Upper-level conditions could become more favorable for tropical or subtropical development over the next day or so as the system moves north-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.  Locally heavy rain and gusty winds associated with this disturbance will move across Bermuda today, July 30, 2007. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower activity continues to be poorly organized in association with a low pressure area centered about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  As the system moves west- northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph any further development is expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Typhoon (TY) 05w (Usagi) located approximately 334 miles south of Iwo To has tracked west-northwestward at 10 mph over the past six hours.  Maximum sustained winds - 86 mph, gusts 104 mph.  Maximum significant wave height is 22 feet.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs for Cass and Ransom Counties, North Dakota are scheduled to begin today, July 30, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, July 29, 2007:

Initial attack activity: Light (138 new fires)
States Most Affected:  ID, MT
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 29

Weather Discussion: Windy conditions are also expected east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. Isolated mixed wet and dry thunderstorms are possible in the central Sierra and across Nevada with wetter storms further south and east.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)