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National Situation Update: Sunday, July 29, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will strike the South from the Carolinas to Texas and Florida.  A weakening front across Tennessee, northern Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri, will be the mechanism for thunderstorm development today, July 29, 2007.
 
Thunderstorm development along this stationary front should increase the chances of heavy rain and some flash flooding around the Ozarks of Arkansas.  This will bring a better chance of shower and thunderstorm development to the Carolinas Sunday, July 29, 2007. 

The upper-level storm over Texas will help produce thunderstorms across the state.

Northeast:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again in the forecast for Northeast today, July 29, 2007.  A cold front will dissipate over the Northeast leaving a humid air mass - a nearly perfect environment for thunderstorm development.  Some storms could reach severe limits with gusty winds and small hail.

Midwest:  Mostly sunny skies are forecast from the Northern Great Plains to the eastern Great Lakes today, July 29, 2007.  Along the edge of the high, showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Cleveland, along the Ohio River into Missouri.

The western High Plains from eastern Wyoming to southern Colorado, including the Nebraska Panhandle and western Kansas, are forecast to receive more heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding.

West:  Heat will build in the Intermountain West today, July 29, 2007 as a ridge strengthens over the Great Basin.  Highs will range from the mid to upper 90s from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin, with the triple digits across the Deserts and the central valley of California.

There is a slight chance of a shower this morning from Seattle to Portland.  Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and the western slope of Colorado today, July 29, 2007.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Montana Wildfire Forces Lodge Evacuation

Lodge guests and workers were forced to evacuate and a long stretch of highway was closed after winds whipped up a wildfire outside Glacier National Park, causing it to jump control lines, officials said.

When guests of the Summit Station Lodge left Saturday morning to go golfing, hiking, rafting and fishing, the fire was about 8 miles away, said the owner. Within three hours, it was a mile away.

"We are hitting a couple of hot spots on the south side with some helicopters, trying to keep it from moving to the south," said a fire information officer.

Fire officials ordered guests and nearly all 18 employees to leave the lodge Saturday evening, the lodge owner said.  Employees were trying to contact guests and gather their belongings to move them to other lodges, he said.

Fire crews were protecting the lodge and "tearing down some trees that are kind of dangerous, that are very close to cabins," the owner said.

A 24-mile stretch of U.S. 2, which connects a bridge to a campground, was closed.
The fire had been listed at 420 acres but blew up to about 1,000 acres, or about 1 1/2 square miles. 

Another fire north of Helena was still keeping people away from recreation areas and homes, and fire crews appeared to be settling in for a long battle. The fire, burning at nearly 10 square miles, was 15 percent contained.

Meanwhile, officials said a huge, 1,030-square-mile fire in southern Idaho and northern Nevada could be contained as early as Sunday.

"The rain really helped us the other day, which helped bring up that containment," said a fire information officer. "There are still some hot spots we're working on."  The lightning-sparked fire was about 80 percent contained.

In California, a nearly month-old wildfire in Santa Barbara County expanded for the first time in several days Saturday, consuming more than 200 additional acres. It had held steady at about 48 square miles since earlier in the week. It is 80 percent contained and is expected to be fully surrounded Aug. 3, officials said.  (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
An elongated low pressure area located about 225 miles northeast of the central Bahamas remains disorganized. However environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development in a day or so as the system moves north-northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located about 950 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.  Any further development of this system is likely to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical storm (TS) 05W located approximately 495 miles south-southeast of Iwo To has tracked westward at 16 mph over the past six hours.  Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph with gusts to 52 mph.  There is no current threat to United States territories or possessions.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity to report. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, July 28, 2007:

Initial attack activity: Light (189 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 5
Uncontained large fires: 30

Weather Discussion: Mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms expected in Nevada, Idaho and Western Montana.  Scattered, mostly wet thunderstorms across the Great Basin, Wyoming and four Corner states.  Winds will increase over Idaho and Montana.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)