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National Situation Update: Friday, July 27, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
Heavy showers (3-6 inches) and thunderstorms are forecasted for western Louisiana and water-logged southern Texas through Saturday morning.

Highs in the Southwest will be mostly in the 90s with Phoenix expected to see temperatures near 100.

Additional rainfall is forecast for most of the Southeast Thursday evening. 

Midwest
A cold front passing through the northern Plains and upper Midwest will bring the possibility of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. A few of the thunderstorms could produce hail and high winds on Friday.  

Northeast
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic areas on Friday.
Highs will be in the 80s-90s through the weekend for most of the region.

West
The Intermountain West will experience hot, sunny weather on Friday with highs in the 90s. Thunderstorms in the interior West may produce flash flooding and dust storms.

The Southwest will remain cooler than average while the northern Rockies will see warming temperatures due to a building upper-level ridge.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Texas Prepares for Additional Flooding

An upper level low producing numerous showers and thunderstorms developed Wednesday night across south central and southeastern Texas. The system produced rain amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches. The showers ended Thursday, however, moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to feed the low and could produce heavy downpours of 1-3 inches per hour on Friday. Widespread rainfall amounts will range from 1-3 inches, with locally heavy amounts of 4-8 inches. The upper level low is expected to remain across Texas through the weekend. With soils already saturated and most rivers at or above flood stage in the area, additional rainfall will quickly run off and could create flash flooding problems as well as flooding problems.

FEMA Region VI is involved in conference calls with Texas State Operations Center and is monitoring the situation.

The United States Coast Guard has a search and rescue helicopter with a Swimmer Team on stand-by.

The Texas State Operations Center is continuing to monitor this situation and will conduct daily conference calls through the weekend. The State Operations Center has deployed strategic equipment and resources to provide an effective response capability.

Texas Task Force (TTF) has positioned a liaison officer (LNO) and two swift water rescue teams in San Antonio (Bexar County), along with six swift water rescue teams stationed in College Station (Brazos County).

Texas Parks and Wildlife (TPWD) has deployed Game Wardens with three boats.

Texas Military Forces (TMF) has placed 2 platoon sized light transportation Force Packages on standby to conduct high water transportation and rescue. Each Force Package includes 30 soldiers and 10 high profile vehicles. TMF has also deployed three helicopters with hoist capability to the Austin/San Antonio area.

The Texas Forest Service (TFS) has deployed one Incident Management Team. (Texas State EOC, National Weather Service, FEMA Region VI)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
At 1:00 am EDT July 27, Tropical Storm (TS) Dalila was centered about 410 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico moving westward with maximum sustained wind speed near 40 mph.

TS Dalila is forecasted to become a remnant low during the next 24-36 hours.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Four (4) earthquakes (magnitude 3.9 to 4.7) were reported July 26 (6:37 pm to 8:03 pm PDT) approximately 340 miles west of Portland, OR. There are no reports of injuries or damages or tsunami. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDAs for nine (9) counties in Missouri were completed July 20, 2007, and Public Assistance PDAs for ten (10) counties are scheduled for completion July 27, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   5

National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 26, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (220 new fires)
• New large fires: 9
• Large fires contained: 11
• Uncontained large fires: 43 (compared to 48 previous day)

Weather Discussion: A mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible over parts of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Scattered mostly wet thunderstorms are expected across the Great Basin, Colorado and Wyoming the next couple of days. However, wet and dry thunderstorms are expected east of the Cascades through central and northern Idaho and into western Montana.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)