National Situation Update: Monday, July 23, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather Summary
Northeast: Isolated showers and storms will move over the northeast Monday, July 23, 2007. The main area of concern will be New Jersey, far eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York (including NYC), and southern New England where a developing coastal low may cause some heavy rain.
Midwest: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a trough of low pressure from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Wisconsin southwestward into the central Plains Monday, July 23, 2007. Highs could reach the triple digits in the western and central Dakotas affecting firefighting efforts.
South: While much of the south will remain dry, there will be regions of showers and thunderstorms from Florida and the central Gulf Coast northward into eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians, and the central and western portions of Texas and Oklahoma.
West: The main area of precipitation in the west will be in the interior, where showers and thunderstorms will predominate, mainly in the mountains during the afternoon and evening.
High temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s in northwest Washington to over 100 in eastern Montana, northeast Wyoming, parts of the Great Basin, and the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. (NWS, Media Sources)
Idaho Fire Nears Homes, Military Range
A wildfire grew by an estimated 200 square miles in 24 hours, blackening grazing land Sunday, July 22, 2007 as it threatened thousands of southern Idaho homes and facilities at an Air Force training range, fire officials said.
Two large wildfires along the Nevada line combined Saturday, July 21, 2007 to create the 800-square-mile Murphy Complex blaze, which burned grass and brush and was less than a mile from a training range of Mountain Home Air Force Base. The fire was near Mountain Home's Saylor Creek range. The fire official said tracking and radar facilities were at risk, but he was not sure what else was on the range.
No one has been seriously hurt, but the homes of about 7,500 people in the sparsely populated region were threatened, said a fire information officer. The fire was only about 5 percent contained, he said, and mandatory evacuations remained in effect for the towns of Murphy Hot Springs, Idaho, and Jarbidge, Nevada. Ranches in the area were also threatened, grazing area was lost, and cattle had likely died in the fast-moving blaze.
Spotty rain helped firefighters battle the Salt Creek Fire, a 28-square-mile blaze in central Utah on Sunday, July 22, 2007 but it remained just 15 percent contained, and residents of several small communities were told to leave. The fire began Friday, July 20, 2007 and strong winds whipped the flames across areas full of dry vegetation, which ignited quickly and spread for miles. Blazing heat and erratic winds had firefighters cautiously trying to pick where they could try to slow the blaze. Flames shot 80 to 100 feet in the air overnight.
A spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said about 250 people had been affected by evacuation notices in Oaker Hills, Indian Ridge, Elk Ridge, Indianola and Holiday Oaks. A shelter was set up in Mount Pleasant, about 90 miles south of Salt Lake City, he said.
The cause of the fire was still under investigation.
The Middle Fork fire in northern Idaho destroyed two residences and seven outbuildings Friday, July 20, 2007 and Saturday, July 21, 2007 including properties at Boulder Creek Outfitters, a private hunting ranch. The blaze raced through tree crowns and shot out embers that created spot fires up to a mile away, said a fire information spokesman. The 31-square-mile fire, which was started by lightning, was 10 percent contained Sunday, July 22, 2007 the spokesman said. People in communities north and east of the wildfire were encouraged to evacuate. (Media Sources)
Texas Gets Break From Torrential Rain
As much as 17 inches of rain had fallen in some areas of south and central Texas between Friday, July 20, 2007 and Saturday, July 21, 2007 said a National Weather Service forecaster. Dozens of people were rescued, some by helicopter, but no serious injuries were reported after days of torrential rain that left an Amtrak train stranded, roads flooded and sent Boy Scouts on a camping trip fleeing for their lives in the state's latest round of flooding.
Only isolated showers were forecast through Tuesday, July 24, 2007 but several central Texas rivers were either at flood stage or expected to reach that level Sunday night, July 22, 2007 or Monday, July 23, 2007 the forecaster said.
A Boy Scout troop from suburban Fort Worth camping on the Guadalupe River had to make a quick getaway early Saturday, July 21, 2007 when the water rose rapidly. No one was injured, but the troop lost five vehicles.
An Amtrak train was halted Saturday morning, July 21, 2007 in Knippa, a town about 75 miles west of San Antonio, after water covered the tracks, stranding 176 passengers. Buses drove most passengers to El Paso, where they boarded another train an Amtrak spokeswoman said. A few passengers caught trains at other stops between San Antonio and El Paso.
The National Weather Service confirmed a small tornado east of San Antonio near Seguin on Saturday, July 21, 2007 in the early morning hours. Four businesses and at least one house were damaged, a Guadalupe County Sheriff's Corporal said. (Media Sources)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new information to report. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A small surface trough of low pressure is located about 150 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorms with this system are diminishing and no significant development is expected as the system continues northward tomorrow, July 23, 2007.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression 7-E (TS 7E) has been upgraded to Tropical Storm (TS) Dalila and is centered about 387 miles south-southeast of Socorro Island, Mexico and moving west-northwest at about 8 mph.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 mph with gusts to 51 mph.
TS Dalila has experienced a burst of deep convection despite the 29 mph northeasterly shear currently over the cyclone. The deep convection is persisting and the overall organization of the system continues to improve. The northeasterly shear is forecast to abate in 36 to 48 hours and TS Dalila will be in a better environment for strengthening.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific:
Tropical Depression (TD) Cosme Advisory 35 - At 11:00 pm EDT, July 22, 2007 the center of TD Cosme was located about 45 miles south-southeast of Johnston Island and about 820 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. TD Cosme is moving toward the west near 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue as the depression dissipates.
This is the last public advisory issued by the central pacific hurricane center on this system unless regeneration occurs.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 5
States Most Affected: Idaho, Nevada and Utah
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, July 22, 2007:
Initial attack activity: light (192 new fires)
New large fires: 7
Large fires contained: 13
Uncontained large fires: 49
Predictive Services Discussion: Thunderstorm activity increasing in the West. High pressure building over the Rockies will spread monsoon moisture into the Great Basin, western Wyoming and the southern California mountains and deserts for mainly wet thunderstorms today. However, drier storms are expected over the northern portion of the Great Basin and Wyoming. Dry weather will prevail over the northern Rockies and most of California. A warming trend is expected over much of the West. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 23-Jul-2007 08:10:25 EDT