National Situation Update: Sunday, July 22, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather Summary
Northeast: An upper-level low will move over the Mid-Atlantic by Monday, July 23, 2007 as moisture is drawn back into the region.
A low-pressure disturbance along a stalled front offshore could increase rain and thunderstorms over the Chesapeake Bay region, Delaware Valley and New Jersey, lower Hudson Valley and southern New England while showers develop over the interior Mid-Atlantic.
Midwest: The Midwest will have two weather systems in the upcoming week; a upper-level low will move into the Ohio Valley, gradually increasing thunderstorms each day from Lower Michigan to Kentucky.
An upper-level high will dominate the Plains with daytime temperatures 5 to 20 degrees above average through midweek.
The upper-level high and the upper-level low will move from the Upper Midwest (Minnesota and Wisconsin) today, July 22, 2007 to eastern Kansas by Tuesday, July 24, 2007 sparking a thunderstorm complex that could produce torrential rain and localized flooding.
South: A system over the Hill Country of Texas will move into the southwest corner of Texas and into the Desert Southwest.
Much of Texas will see little or no rain today, July 22, 2007 and Monday, July 23, 2007 allowing the Austin-San Antonio-Del Rio flooding to drain away.
The stalled cold front over the northern Gulf Coast and Florida will produce more strong thunderstorms and downpours over Florida today, July 22, 2007.
West: An unseasonable northern Pacific jet stream will continue to bring rain into western Oregon and western Washington through today, July 22, 2007.
The above-average temperatures and resulting 90-to-105-degree heat will continue from Idaho and northern Utah to the Plains through Tuesday, July 24, 2007.
Gusty winds and lightning strikes will continue to affect the many fires concentrated over Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, and Utah. (NWS, Media Sources)
Texas: Severe Storms and Flooding
Severe thunderstorms concentrated heavy rainfall over South Central Texas and the Texas Hill Country. The hardest hit counties are Uvalde, Medina, Kinney and Maverick. Rainfall totals may reach 5 to 10 inches over the Hill Country, with 6 to 12 inches possible. Precipitation is anticipated to move west out of the Hill Country by noon July 22, 2007.
In Hondo (Medina County), a shelter is open with approximately 95 people. A shelter is open in Uvalde County (population unknown) and a camp area is being evacuated.
Approximately 30 homes and businesses have sustained major water damage in the town of D'Hanis (Medina County). Preliminary reports indicate that up to 100 homes may have been impacted in D'Hanis.
This is a flash flood event, not a sustained flood event. Much of the flooding is due to saturated soil and swollen rivers and tributaries from continued heavy rainfall throughout the State.
FEMA Region VI along with the Waco JFO is monitoring the situation. A State Liaison has been identified. The State of Texas continues to monitor the situation and will assist local government response actions if needed. (FEMA Region VI)
Texas Flooding Strands Passenger Train
Storms dumped more than a foot of rain on parts of Texas on Saturday, July 21, 2007 stranding more than 170 passengers on an Amtrak train for hours and forcing rescue crews elsewhere to pull at least 50 people to safety. Water covering the tracks in Knippa, about 75 miles west of San Antonio, stopped a westbound Amtrak train carrying 176 passengers around 9 am CDT. Buses were expected to arrive around 7:30 p.m. to take passengers to El Paso, where they would board another train, said an Amtrak spokeswoman. The train never lost power, but buses could not reach it earlier because of flooded roads, the spokeswoman said.
Parts of northern Uvalde and Medina counties got as much as 17 inches of rain between 10 pm CDT Friday, July 20, 2007 and 10 am Saturday, July 21, 2007 said a National Weather Service forecaster.
Seco Creek overflowed, inundating the town of D'Hanis near San Antonio, said the Medina County Sheriff. Many businesses were flooded with 3 to 4 feet of water. Boats, fire trucks and helicopters rescued stranded residents, but only one minor injury was reported, the Sheriff said.
In Bexar County, which contains San Antonio, rescuers had responded to more than two dozen calls for high-water rescue by Saturday afternoon, officials said. Campgrounds along the Medina River in Bandera County were being evacuated. In San Antonio, there were 20 to 30 road closures, said a county emergency management coordinator. (Media Sources)
UT Salt Creek Fire
On July 19, 2007 the Salt Creek fire began eight miles east of Nephi in Juab County, UT from suspected human causes.
Currently the fire has consumed approximately 14000 acres and is threatening the Holiday Oaks subdivision of 125 homes. This subdivision was placed on a mandatory evacuation order. The Thousand Oaks and Indianola subdivisions have been placed on standby for evacuation.
A red flag warning is in effect for the area as temperatures hover in the mid to upper 90's. Forecasted dry thunderstorms for Sunday, July 22, 2007 will produce no precipitation and potential winds in excess of 40mph.
Damage consists of one home, a hotel, watersheds, out buildings and several campgrounds destroyed. Power to the area has been lost three times and has been re-routed. The main water line to Nephi, UT sustained damaged due to the fire.
A Type 1 firefighting team from Florida was expected to take over operation at approximately 8:00 pm MDT, July 21, 2007. (FEMA Region VIII)
Dry Conditions Hinder Utah Firefighters
High temperatures and low humidity prevented firefighters from extinguishing a fire Saturday, July 21, 2007 that threatened at least two dozen homes in a small town in central Utah.
Fire crews were waiting for more firefighters to arrive so they could work to put out the fire rather than just protect cabins, homes and trailers threatened by the 22-square-mile fire about 10 miles west of the town of Indianola.
Temperatures reached nearly 100 degrees, while humidity hovered around 10 percent in many of the areas where the state's 10 wildfires were burning.
The blaze began Thursday in a private campground in Salt Creek Canyon, 85 miles south of Salt Lake City. A motel and some vehicles and trailers were burned, the U.S. Forest Service said.
The fire had forced several evacuations and rescues along a 32-mile scenic road in the Uinta National Forest since Thursday.
The cause was still being investigated Saturday, but initial reports suggested a motorist may have sparked the fire by riding on the rim of a flat tire on a highway that is an access route to the forest.
The nation's firefighting preparedness has moved to its highest level this week, and officials worry that the worst is to come with forecasts of more lightning and extremely dry conditions.
Three of the country's top fire teams are assigned to Nevada. A federal area command unit also has been called in to the state to coordinate fire teams. It's the only state with such a team currently in place, officials said. Almost half the 72 large fires burning nationally are in Nevada and Idaho. (Media Sources)
SD Boxelder Fire
The Boxelder Fire started on July 21, 2007 by lightning and is threatening the subdivision of Johnson Siding with a population of 500 and is 2-3 miles from Nemo, SD. One hundred people have been evacuated.
The fire has burned 700 acres and is zero % contained. The primary fuel source is pine and grass on Federal, State and private lands.
The forecast has the winds at 14 mph with gusts to 35 mph, 105 degrees and 16 % humidity.
There are 10 volunteer fire departments and a Type 2 firefighting team on hand. (FEMA Region VIII)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
FMAG 2715 for the Salt Creek Fire in Nephi (Juab County), UT was approved on July 21, 2007 at 9:04 pm EDT.
FMAG 2716 for the Boxelder Fire in Nemo (Lawrence County), SD was approved on July 22, 2007 at 11:16 pm EDT. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles is associated with an upper-level low interacting with a tropical wave. This system remains poorly organized but environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for some development over the next day or two.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
The area of low pressure south of Manzanillo, Mexico has continued to become better organized and developed a well-defined circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with the system is not very deep at this time but there are some cyclonically curved rainbands suggesting that the system can be classified as a Tropical Depression (Tropical Depression 7-E).
The initial motion is highly uncertain since the system just formed and there is not a good history of the track. The best estimate is west-northwest at 14 mph. This general track is forecast to continue.
There is a strong upper level high over Mexico inducing a moderate easterly shear as indicated by the ships model. However the shear is not expected to be strong enough to inhibit a gradual intensification during the next two to three days. Thereafter the cyclone is forecast to encounter cooler waters and a gradual weakening could begin.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific:
At 11:00 pm EDT, July 21, 2007 the center of Tropical Depression Cosme was located about 430 miles southwest of Honolulu and about 505 miles east of Johnston Island.
Cosme is moving toward the west near 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
Tropical Depression Cosme is expected to pass near Johnston Island Sunday evening, July 22, 2007 with gusty winds locally heavy rainfall and rough surf.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No significant information to report.(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 5
States Most Affected: Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah
National Fire Activity as of Friday, July 20, 2007:
Initial attack activity: Moderate (236 new fires)
New large fires: 9
Large fires contained: 8
Uncontained large fires: 63
Type 1 IMTs committed: 10
Type 2 IMTs committed: 21
Predictive Services Discussion: Initially dry thunderstorms over southern California, southern Nevada, Utah and Wyoming. A high pressure ridge will build from the east with decreased winds and warmer temperatures. Wet thunderstorms will continue over most of the Four Corner states, with drier thunderstorms moving into California, the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 23-Jul-2007 08:10:24 EDT