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National Situation Update: Saturday, July 21, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

More Hot Weather in the Western U.S. - More Rainfall in East Texas

West:
High temperatures, local gusty winds, and lightning strikes will most likely hamper firefighters' efforts in the hard-hit areas of Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon this weekend. The interior West is expected to see highs in the 90s - 100s.

Showers, some steady rainfall and cool temperatures are forecast for the Washington and Oregon coastal areas through Saturday and Sunday.

Scattered showers and cooler temperatures are expected in the Southwest.

The Governor of California declared a state of emergency for Riverside County due to drought conditions. The declaration will enable the state to free up statewide resources to assist the county to drill new wells, refurbish old wells, and to improve water storage systems.

South:
Drenching rain will continue to hit the eastern Texas area as a storm system moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico.

Some thunderstorms will hit the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula over the weekend, otherwise the remainder of the Southeast will experience dry weather, low humidity, and slightly cooler temperatures. 

Midwest:
Temperatures and humidity levels will be excellent across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Highs in the 90s - 100s are forecasted across the Plains including the Dakotas and Nebraska. 

Northeast:
Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible across Pennsylvania, New York, and New England.

Cooler than average temperatures over the next few days are forecasted with highs in the 70s to low 80s during the day. (NWS, Media Sources, FEMA Region III)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles are associated with an upper-low interacting with a Tropical Wave.  Upper-level winds are not conducive for development at this time.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
A broad area of disturbed weather centered south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (about 400 miles SE of Acapulco, Mexico) is moving slowly westward. This system has potential for some development during the next day or two.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
At 5:00 am EDT, July 21, Tropical Depression Cosme was located about 250 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii and about 350 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. Cosme is moving westward at 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Cosme will likely become a remnant low late Saturday into Sunday.

The Depression will bring localized gusty winds and the possibility of additional heavy rain to the Big Island of Hawaii tonight as it passes by to the south. Rough surf is also expected along east and southeast facing shores.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake of 4.2 magnitude was recorded Friday, 4:42 am PDT 2 miles from Oakland, California, at a depth of 3.6 miles. Minor damages but no injuries were reported and no tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Missouri:  Individual Assistance PDAs for nine counties began on July 16, 2007, and Public Assistance PDAs for ten counties are scheduled to begin on July 23, 2007.

Maine:  Public Assistance PDAs in Oxford County began on July 20, 2007 for severe storms and flooding that occurred July 11-12, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   5
States Most Affected: Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 19, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (289 new fires)
• New large fires: 15
• Large fires contained: 13
• Uncontained large fires: 72
• Type 1 IMTs committed:  9
• Type 2 IMTs committed:  21
   (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction  Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Vermont:  The Governor is requesting a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance for three counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)