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National Situation Update: Friday, July 20, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
Showers and relatively cool temperatures are forecast for parts of Washington and Oregon over the next few days. Scattered or isolated thunderstorms in the Four Corners area (Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona) will keep temperatures cooler. Thunderstorms are possible in Phoenix and Tucson.

High temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average, with highs generally in the 90s. The higher elevations will see highs in the 80s and the northern high Plains will be in the low 100s. Parts of eastern Wyoming and Montana will have highs in the 100s.

Midwest:
A cold front heading into the Tennessee Valley, Arkansas, and the southern Plains will help the Midwest to dry out this weekend. The Central Plains to southern Missouri will see continued scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures will range from the 90s to over 100 degrees in the western Dakotas and western Nebraska over the weekend.

South:
An unseasonable cold front pushing southwards to the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will provide the Southeast with a break from the frequent thunderstorms and humidity. Ahead of this cold front will be thunderstorms from the eastern Carolinas to northern Louisiana. The Tennessee Valley, north Georgia, and the Carolinas will see drier air on Saturday, confining thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast area. Most of the South will see below average highs in the 80s.

Northeast:
Some afternoon showers are forecasted in parts of Upstate New York and northern New England. Southern Maryland recorded wind speeds up to 65 mph Thursday evening. Heavy wind damage may result. Highs in the Northeast during the next few days are forecasted to be in the 70s-80s. (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

2007 U.S. Active Wildfires

The U.S. Fire Service indicates the current wildfire activity has caused the National Preparedness Level to be raised to 5, which is the highest level. The following chart, containing burn activity as of July 19, 2007 (beginning January 1, 2007), indicates the hardest hit areas currently are in the states of Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and Utah:

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is causing cloudiness and showers from the eastern Caribbean Sea northward across the Leeward Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. There are no signs of a closed surface circulation at this time. Development, if any, should be slow to occur. Showers are expected to spread over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Cosme at 0500 hours EDT July 20 was located about 465 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The TD was moving westward at about 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained 35 mph with gusts to 46 mph. 

TD Cosme is expected to retain the same intensity during the next few days. Cosme will be moving over warmer water but also into an area with stronger vertical shear, therefore it is difficult to forecast future behavior especially beyond 72 hours.

Rain caused by Cosme is expected to begin on the Big Island of Hawaii today (July 20) with 3-5 inches of rain over a 24-48 hour period. Maui is expected to get 1-3 inches of rain beginning Friday night, (July 20), for a period of 18-36 hours; Kauai and Oahu will get 1-2 inches of rain over a 24-hour period beginning Saturday.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

During the past 24 hours, there were 7 earthquakes reported in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, with magnitudes ranging from 2.7 to 4.7. A 4.0 magnitude earthquake was reported in the Gulf of California at a depth of 6.2 miles. There were no reports of damages or injuries and no tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDA's for nine counties began in Missouri on July 16, 2007, and Public Assistance PDA's for ten counties are scheduled to begin on July 23, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   5
States Most Affected: Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, July 19, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Heavy (412 new fires)
• New large fires: 23
• Large fires contained: 11
• Uncontained large fires: 71

Nevada:   The Governor of Nevada issued an Executive Order declaring a State of Emergency in the entire state. The order was issued in response to the abnormally high number of lightning-strike fires. On Monday and Tuesday, July 16 and 17, 2007, lightning strikes from a single system of thunderstorms caused 80 fires starts, 38 of which required local response and 29 of which are still burning.

Wildfire Outlook:  Windy conditions will continue over portions of southern California, the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and Wyoming. Thunderstorms will develop mainly in Washington, Montana, Wyoming and the Four Corner States, with the least precipitation on the west and southwest boundaries of the storm. Cooler conditions and higher relative humidity will continue to move into the Northwest and Northern California particularly affecting the west side of the Cascades with light showers. Red Flag Warnings in western Utah, eastern Idaho, and southwestern Montana for low relative humidity. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)