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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 19, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the Pacific Northwest. Scattered or isolated thunderstorms are likely over the Rockies with the most storms forecast for Colorado. Gusty winds in the Great Basin are likely to produce critical fire conditions.

High temperatures are forecasted in the 90s in Montana, with temperatures over 110 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest:
Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue in Iowa and northern Illinois with the possibility of damaging wind gusts. Severe thunderstorms, damaging winds and large hail are likely from Ohio and West Virginia into eastern Kansas.

High temperatures will range from the 60s in the far northern Great Lakes to the 90s in the Ohio Valley through Missouri and Kansas.

South:
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish with large areas of the South with no precipitation at all. The Texas and Louisiana coasts and the Florida peninsula are the areas most likely to have precipitation.

High temperatures in region will be in the 80s and low 90s.

Northeast:
A low pressure system through New York will bring scattered showers and storms to the Northeast, primarily north of the Mason-Dixon line.

High temperatures will range from the 70s to the 90s in Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)

Transformer Explosion in New York City, NY

A steam pipe that was installed in 1924 failed around 1745 hrs EDT Wednesday, erupting through the pavement at East 41st Street and Lexington and 3rd Avenue in Manhattan.  The explosion, near Grand Central Station, impacted all transportation in the area. Reports indicate 12-15 individuals were taken to local hospitals for treatment that included decontamination for asbestos exposure. One individual was reported to have died at the hospital from a heart attack, not steam injuries.

NYC Office of Emergency Management, Consolidated Edison, Department of Environmental Conservation, Fire Department of New York, and all city support agencies responded to the scene. Transportation in the area is expected to be adversely impacted through the Thursday morning commute with the main concern being asbestos exposure. (FEMA Region II)

Wisconsin Flooding

Homes were flooded in the village of Begley in Grant County, Wisconsin. The town is in southwestern Wisconsin near the Mississippi River. The area received six to seven inches of rain. The cause of the localized flooding was blocked storm sewers and has affected 100 homes with first floor flooding. 

Although there is a boil water order in effect, electrical power has been restored and the water system is up. Almost all the homes that had water and/or sewage accumulation have been pumped out. About 250 structures were affected by sewer back up. About 40 homes, some of which are mobile homes, are not habitable. A shelter has been set up at a high school in a nearby community with an expected occupancy of about 40 people. (Wisconsin EM, FEMA Region V)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Cosme is located east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Cosme should reach increasing sea surface temperatures in about 30 hours in a light shear environment creating the possibility of some strengthening, provided the system does not dissipate from lack of convection before then. After 72 hours Cosme should reach significantly warmer water and possibly significant vertical wind shear. Based on this intensity Cosme should persist as a Depression for 72 hours, then weaken to a remnant low due to shear.

An area of disturbed weather continues along the southwest coast of Mexico. There are no signs of organization and development is unlikely due to proximity to land. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Mexico over the next day or two.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant tropical activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquakes affecting the U.S. or U.S. interests were reported.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Individual Assistance PDA's for nine counties began in Missouri on July 16, 2007, and Public Assistance PDA's for ten counties are scheduled to begin on July 23, 2007.

Public Assistance PDA's for four counties in Vermont began on July 17, 2007.   (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   4
States Most Affected: Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, July 18, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Heavy (360 new fires)
• New large fires:25
• Large fires contained: 6
• Uncontained large fires: 68
  Wildfire Outlook:  Windy conditions in combination with thunderstorms this week mainly over the Great Basin. Windy conditions will continue over portions of California, eastern Oregon, the Great Basin, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Thunderstorms will develop over the Northwest and the Great Basin eastward. The driest storms will be in eastern Oregon, the Great Basin, and western Wyoming. Cooler conditions and higher relative humidity will begin to increase over the Northwest and Northern California; showers will also increase west of the Cascades and in northwest California.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

 FEMA-1711-DR-Kansas, Amendment No. 3, has been approved and adds 11 counties for Individual Assistance and 26 counties for Public Assistance.

FEMA-1709-DR-Texas, Amendment No. 5, has been approved and adds 16 counties for Public Assistance.

FEMA-1699-DR-Kansas, Amendment No. 12, has been approved and adds 3 counties for Individual Assistance, and 7 counties for Public Assistance.. (FEMA HQ)