National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather
West: A frontal system moving in off the Pacific will produce showers along coastal areas from Washington to northern California. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast for the Intermountain West. Some of these storms may produce dry lightning (lightning that occurs without rain nearby) with the potential for additional fires. Gusty afternoon winds could make firefighting difficult over and in the immediate lee of the Cascades and Sierras. High temperatures will range from 60s along the Washington and Oregon Coasts, 100 degrees in much of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming to over 110 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Midwest: A stationary front will produce rain across parts of southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, southwest Michigan and northern Indiana. Isolated thunderstorms will produce large hail and damaging winds. A building ridge of high pressure will result in increasing temperatures. By tomorrow Nebraska and South Dakota may see highs at or near 100 degrees.
South: The Southeast will be cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. With the extensive cloudiness, temperatures will be near to below seasonal averages with highs in the 80s and low 90s.
Northeast: Coastal areas will be dry but interior sections will see a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be seasonal with highs from the 70s in New England to 90s in eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland and Delaware.(NWS, Media Sources)
Nuclear Plant Leak In Japan After Quake
A strong earthquake in central Japan damaged a large nuclear power plant causing a leak of radioactive material, officials at the plant have said. A small amount of water containing radioactive substances leaked into the sea, officials said, and a fire broke out at the plant in Kashiwazaki. Tokyo Electric Power Company said the small amount of radioactive material that leaked into the sea posed no environmental risk. Reactors at the plant automatically shut during the magnitude 6.8 quake.(Media Sources)
No La Nina This Summer
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that La Nina (a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that generally brings a more active Atlantic hurricane season ) will be absent for the next two months. The absence of La Nina doesn't necessarily herald a tame summer for tropical storms and hurricanes, said a meteorologist and spokesman for NOAA in Miami. There are so many other ingredients that contribute to the development of tropical cyclones, it's not just the fact that we don't have a La Nina that comes into play here. Hurricane season 2005 was a textbook example of this. La Nina wasn't around, but the season managed to break records, with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, seven of which were major. La Nina is the counterpart to the better known El Nino, a warming of Pacific waters near the equator that creates a less conducive environment for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Both ocean conditions are hard to predict long-term and don't follow regular patterns. This year, forecasters have predicted an above-average hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November. They believe there will be 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes and three to five of those reaching at least Category 3 strength. Part of the reason behind this is that we're in an active hurricane cycle - a phenomenon of heightened activity that can last for decades. The last one spanned the 1940s through 1960s. The current one started in 1995 and could last for another decade. There have been two named storms in 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea, which formed in May, and Tropical Storm Barry, which formed June 1, the first day of hurricane season. (Media Sources)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
A Fire Management Assistant Grant (Declaration # 2713-FM-NV) was approved at 10:13 pm EDT, July 16, 2007 for the Hawkins Fire. Located near the subdivision of Caughlin Ranch, Washoe County, Nevada. The fire has burned more than 800 acres. 150 to 250 homes threatened along with high power lines and a substation, 50 homes have been voluntarily evacuated.
A Fire Management Assistant Grant (Declaration # 2714-FM-WA) was approved at 10:26 pm EDT, July 16, 2007 for the Trunk Grade Fire, located near the community of Tonasket, Okanogan County, Washington. The fire has burned more than 12,000 acres and there have been 75evacuations with 100-150 residences threatened. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
On 17 July at 5:00 am EDT Tropical Storm Cosme was located about 1,515 miles east of Hilo Hawaii. Present movement is toward the West-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 63 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Based on the current warning Tropical Storm Cosme will continue to track towards the Hawaiian Islands gradually decreasing in intensity. Based on the current warning the system will pass over the southern tip of the big Island on Saturday 21 July with winds of 40 and gusts to 52 mph.
Disorganized shower activity continues along the pacific coast of Mexico west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extends southwestward for several hundred miles. Tropical cyclone development is not expected here or elsewhere during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No tropical activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
There was no significant earthquake activity in the United States or its territories during the last 24 hours.
A 6.8 earthquake was recorded on Monday, July 16, 2007 at 10:17 am (EDT) in the Sea of Japan 280 miles West-northwest of Tokyo Japan at a depth of 216.9 miles. No tsunami was generated.
- This deep-focus earthquake was preceded 13 hours earlier by a shallow crustal magnitude 6.6 quake roughly 205 miles to the east. The two earthquakes were generated by different mechanisms. The shallow-focus earthquake was caused by deformation within the crust of the Okhotsk plate and the deep-focus quake was likely caused by the internal deformation of the Pacific plate. Given their different mechanisms and physical separation of at about 10 rupture lengths, the deep-focus earthquake is not considered an aftershock of the first.
- Intermediate- and deep-focus earthquakes generally cause less damage than shallow-focus earthquakes since the energy generated by the deep events is released further from the surface. Therefore Intermediate- and deep-focus earthquakes produces less shaking than by quakes that are closer to the surface.
- During the 20th century Japan has suffered nine devastating earthquakes that killed more that 1000 people each. Among these are the 1923 M7.9 earthquake that triggered the great Tokyo fire that killed 143,000 people and the more recent 1995 M6.9 Kobe earthquake that killed about 5,500 people.(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 4
States Most Affected: Idaho, Utah, and California
National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 16, 2007:
- Initial attack activity: Moderate (282 new fires)
- New large fires: 7
- Large fires contained: 6
- Uncontained large fires: 38
Increasing wind in combination with thunderstorms this week. Winds will begin to increase today over the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Nevada, and southeast Oregon today. Thunderstorms will focus over central Idaho, Montana, and the Four Corner states. Drier, more isolated storms will develop in Nevada, Utah, and the southern Sierra Nevada mountains. Alaska will continue to see cool conditions with
showers and thunderstorms. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2007 07:47:39 EDT