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National Situation Update: Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest:
Thunderstorms, with the possibility of large hail and gusting winds, will extend from northern Texas to southwestern Wisconsin.  There is a possibility of a few tornadoes, especially from eastern Kansas to Iowa.

Pockets of heavy rain from the upper Mississippi Valley to eastern Kansas are forecast.  Heavy rain will also move out of Montana into western sections of North Dakota causing localized flooding due to already high running rivers.

Heavy evening rain is expected in parts of eastern Nebraska and central Kansas bringing a possibility of flooding.

South:
A weak front may cause some isolated afternoon thunderstorms from western Virginia to northeast Georgia.

Isolated showers and storms are forecast across parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.

Strong to severe scattered thunderstorms, are expected across the southern Plains, especially in parts of western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle.

Northeast:
With the exception of an isolated thunderstorm over the higher elevations of West Virginia, dry weather is forecast in the Northeast.

West:
Rain and mountain snow showers are possible from Montana to northern New Mexico.  (NWS, Media Sources)

South Dakota Spring Storm/Tornadoes Update

Based on revised National Weather Service information, a stationary front moved into south-central South Dakota the evening of May 04, 2007, and lingered through May 05, 2007, producing rain, hail, flooding and tornados.  There were reports of tornado touchdowns near Emery and Farmer (Hanson County) and the city of Yankton (Yankton County).  No injuries or deaths have been reported. 

STATE/LOCAL RESPONSE:  The Governor's request to add Public Assistance to the May 14, 2007 request for a major disaster declaration was transmitted to Region VIII on May 19, 2007.

REQUEST FOR FEDERAL ASSISTANCE:  Selected elements of the Region VIII Emergency Response Team (ERT) are deployed to Pierre and are deploying to Sioux Falls to begin staffing an Interim Operating Facility (IOF) in anticipation of the President approving the Governor's request for a major disaster declaration.  The Region VIII RRCC is activated at Level 3 to support the deployment of advanced elements of the Region VIII ERT.  Operating hours are 7:00 am - 7:00 pm MDT, seven (7) days per week.  (FEMA Region VIII) 

Florida/Georgia Wildfires Update

Big Turnaround Complex: (consists of the Big Turnaround and Bugaboo Scrub Fires) the 282,250-acre complex fire is 45% contained.  The fire is located 10 miles south of Waycross, GA and 16 miles west of Folkston, GA in Ware and Charlton counties, GA. The fire has burned into Baker and Columbia counties in Florida. 

Paterson Fire (Florida): 1,564 acres burned and is 90% contained. 
 
Florida Bugaboo Fire: The 122,643-acre fire in Baker and Columbia Counties is 90% contained. 

Dairy Road Fire (Florida): The 14,626 acre fire in Bradford County is 90% contained.

Deland Complex (Florida): The Deland Complex, composed of three fires, has burned 10,093 acres and is 85% contained.

BICY Complex (Florida): The fire is located in the Big Cypress National Preserve near Sunniland, FL in Collier County. Fire has burned 26,600 acres and is 55% contained.

Sweat Farm Road (Georgia):  The 55,527-acre fire in Ware/Charlton Counties is 82% contained.  Expected containment is May 31, 2007.

Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Georgia): The 5,585-acre fire in Clinch County is 55% contained. The fire is five miles east of Fargo.  (National Interagency Fire Center, Georgia Forestry Commission, Florida Division of Forestry, inciweb)

NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year, showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans.

"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said the undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. (NOAA)  Full Story: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2864.htm

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level: 2
• National Fire Activity reported Tuesday, May 22, 2007
  • Initial attack activity: 252 (Moderate)
  • New large fires: 0
  • Large fires contained: 3
  • Uncontained large fires: 14
    
• Predictive Services Discussion: Gusty winds and low humidity will continue over southern Georgia and northern Florida today. Cooler temperatures and less wind are expected today over Arizona and the Great Basin. California will see warming and lowering humidity with gusty north to northeast winds in Northern California and a light offshore flow in Southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center, NOAA/Storm Prediction Center)
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a major disaster declaration for severe storms, tornadoes and flooding occurring on May 4, 2007 and continuing in South Dakota (FEMA-1702-DR).  Ten counties were approved for Individual Assistance.  All counties in the State of South Dakota are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.  (FEMA HQ)