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National Situation Update: Sunday, May 13, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

South
Thunderstorms are forecast across the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, areas that could still use rain to battle a long-term drought. Thunderstorms may also develop from south Georgia to northern Florida, potentially bringing some relief to the parched region.

Northeast
A high pressure will move out of southern Canada and into the Northeast, reinforcing a cool and dry air mass. Temperatures will fall into the 30s from northern Maine to northern Pennsylvania. A few 20s are even possible in far northern New England. Forties can be expected from Southern New England to West Virginia. Frost advisories have been posted from down east Maine to western New York.

Midwest
Frost & freeze warnings have been posted for Sunday morning over a small part of northeast Wisconsin and much of Lower Michigan. Lows could dip into the 20s over interior northern Michigan. Middle 30s may deposit a light frost on Detroit's northern suburbs. Windy conditions are expected from the panhandle of Oklahoma into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday afternoon.

West
A storm will move in from the Pacific Ocean through the Pacific Northwest, bringing clouds and a few showers to eastern Oregon early on Sunday. During the afternoon showers and scattered thunderstorms will visit the interior sections of the Pacific Northwest. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible along the entire spine of the Rocky Mountains. Across the Great Basin and Southwest heat, very dry conditions and gusty southwesterly winds are expected.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Major Flooding in the Central U.S.

The James, Little Sioux, Iowa, Platte, and Missouri rivers are cresting or will continue to slowly recede over the next several days. Locally heavy rainfall could aggravate ongoing river flooding and trigger additional flooding; however; most impacts on the flooding river systems have been less severe than predicted. Major flooding for many areas of the Midwest has resulted in flooding of low-lands, agricultural lands, and roads systems, but with minimal damage to residences and buildings.

In South Dakota, the James, Lower Vermillion, and Little Sioux rivers are experiencing flooding due to the recent heavy rains. A flood warning remains in effect for the James River near Huron, Forestburg, Mitchell and Scotland. A flood warning also remains in effect for the Little Sioux River near Milford, Spencer, and Linn Grove.

At 9 am Saturday, the James River was more than 5 feet above flood stage. Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. The river will fall below flood stage on Tuesday, May 22. At current forecast stages, streets and highways as well as the city of Huron will begin flooding. (NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: An area of low pressure, the remnant of subtropical storm Andrea, is centered about 250 miles east of Daytona Beach Florida, moving east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. This system has not become any better organized, and is currently accompanied only by a small area of thunderstorms to the east of the center. Although no significant development of this system is expected, only a small increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression. Continued movement away from the southeastern United States is expected during the next 24 hours.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: No significant activity to report.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the last 24 hours. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Iowa: Individual Assistance PDAs in 10 counties are scheduled to begin on Monday, May 14, 2007.

Missouri: Individual Assistance PDAs in 14 counties are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, May 15, 2007, and Public Assistance PDAs in 14 counties are schedule to begin on Monday, May 21, 2007.

South Dakota: Individual Assistance PDAs in 12 counties and Public Assistance PDAs in 20 counties are scheduled to begin on Tuesday, May 15, 2007.

Kansas: On May 11 the State of Kansas requested an additional joint FEMA/State PDAs for both IA and PA for twelve additional counties. PDAs will commence on Monday, May 14, 2007. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5).

Initial activity through Saturday, May 12th was Light, with 103 fires. Seven new large fires, one large fire contained. There are 28 uncontained large fires, and three Type 1 IMTs committed.  (NIFC)

Smoke Alert For Points North/Northwest: The Georgia Forestry Commission advises that there is a possibility that smoke from wildfires burning in SE Georgia and NE Florida will affect visibility and air quality in Atlanta and central Georgia Sunday morning. Florida Division of Forestry advises that decreasing winds and increasing moisture will lead to formation of fog and accumulation of smoke on roadways and in drainages during the next several days. Numerous road closures in both Florida and Georgia are in effect.

Florida:  The State EOC is fully activated. The State of Florida reports that a total of 165,443 acres are currently involved in wildfire activity in a total of 195 fires. A weak cold front will push into the state Sunday afternoon and bring higher chances for rain and keep relative humidity above critical levels. Dry air will push in behind this front and bring drier conditions for the early part of next week; but at this time no critical moisture levels are expected. Another front is expected by the end of the week and may bring another good chance for rain.

Georgia: The State EOC is activated at Level 1, normal operations.  The Georgia EOC reports that total fire acreage in Georgia is 217,858. The Georgia Forestry Commission is managing the wildfires. Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) is monitoring the situation. (NIFC)

The Florida Bugaboo Fire, located 2 miles east of Taylor, FL, has burned 101,000 acres. The blaze remains at 5-10% contained. The Bugaboo Fire is being managed under a unified command with the U.S Forest Service Blue Incident Management Team. The 300 residents of the Taylor community, evacuated Tuesday, May 8th, were allowed to return to their homes Friday. Mandatory evacuations have taken place in Deep Creek on both sides of Highway 441 from Interstate Highway 10 to the Florida state line. Evacuees will be sheltered in Live Oak. Crawler tractors are plowing 5 - 7 miles of firebreaks each day in an effort to envelop the fire's entire 35-45 mile (Florida) perimeter. Nine outbuildings have been destroyed and one outbuilding damaged. (FDACS)

Big Turnaround Complex (Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge): The fire is 10 miles southeast of Waycross, GA. The fast-growing fire more than doubled in size Thursday as wind fanned it across dry swamp grasses. Movement slowed on Friday, but firefighters expect the blaze to keep growing, especially as the wind picks up again Sunday. Media sources report that the blaze has burned more than 111,000 acres in Georgia's Ware and Charlton counties and 101,000 acres in Florida's Baker County and the Osceola National Forest. Haze from the fires has traveled more than 300 miles to the Miami area. Officials said the fire has burned to within about six miles of Interstate 10, where heavy smoke blanketed the area and visibility on the highway was reduced to about a quarter of mile. In Georgia, the fire posed a potential threat to the town of Fargo, where 380 people live about eight miles west of the Okefenokee Swamp. Occupants of about 15 homes in a Fargo subdivision were evacuated and residents in a few other communities were asked to be ready to leave.

Catalina Island Fire, Catalina Island, Los Angeles County.  Per the Southern REOC, a low rate of spread has helped to allow island residents to return to the island; however the mandatory evacuation order for visitors remains in affect. Seven structures have been lost and 4,200 acres have burned. Cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity has aided in containment of the fire. (CA DFFP)

Ham Lake Fire continues to spread in the Ham Lake area, Cook County, Minnesota. Ham Lake is approximately 49 miles NE of Grand Marias, Minnesota, where a Joint Information Center (JIC) has been established. Acres burned in both the United States and Canada is estimated at 52,371 acres. Revised acreage is based on an Infrared flight made early Friday morning, May 11. Containment is still estimated at 5%. There is no estimated date on full containment. Friday the Cook County assessor completed an initial assessment of structures lost. In the first few days 134 structures were lost with an estimated value of $3.7 million. An estimated 200 residences and over 20 commercial operations remain threatened. Cautionary and mandatory evacuation orders have been lifted for all areas except the west end Gunflint Trail (Cook County 85) and all roadways off of it to the north and west of Voyageur Point. (Great Basin IMT)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)