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National Situation Update: Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: A trough of low pressure will bring more rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest. Flood watches and warnings have been posted for parts of Washington and Oregon as some rivers are already above flood stage. Winter storm and heavy snow warnings are in effect for the mountains of Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Nevada and California with accumulations of a foot or more. The Southwest will remain dry again as the storm track stays north of the region.

Midwest: A trough over the Great Lakes will bring rain changing to snow across eastern sections of Michigan. Lower Michigan may see from two to four inches. The northwesterly wind flow from the low north of the Great Lakes will bring snow and snow showers to Ohio. Accumulations will be light in most locations.

South: In the cold air behind the front snow showers will move eastward across parts of Tennessee, West Virginia and Kentucky and extreme northern sections of Alabama and Georgia. Red Flag Warnings are forecast for Texas and Oklahoma with dry conditions and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Northeast: The low north of the Great Lakes has a frontal system extending offshore the mid-Atlantic which will produce heavy rain and gusty winds (gusts in some areas could reach 60 mph) from the Middle Atlantic to New England. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible by evening, which could cause some localized flooding. Snow is forecast from the eastern Great Lakes down through western Pennsylvania, some accumulations are likely. (NOAA/NWS and Various  Media Sources)

Wildfire Potential

A low pressure area will begin to develop in the lee of the Rockies today causing south to southwest winds to increase to 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. The strong winds, unseasonably warm temperatures and low relative humidities will result in very high to extreme fire weather conditions.

TEXAS: Red flag warning for all of north Texas is in effect today from 10 am to 6 pm.

OKLAHOMA: A red flag warning is in effect for southern two-thirds of Oklahoma for this afternoon and early evening. A fire weather watch is in effect for this afternoon and evening for northern-third of Oklahoma. (NWS)

December 2005 Was Month Of Weather Extremes In The U.S.

Scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C  said the average temperature for the contiguous United States for December (based on preliminary data) was 33.5 degrees F degrees, identical to the 1895-2004 mean. Colder-than-average conditions covered much of the nation during the first half of the month, as upper-level winds steered Arctic air into the southern U.S. A strong snowstorm moved across the Midwest and Northeast Dec. 8 and 9, and a damaging ice storm struck parts of the Southeast mid-month.

Unusual warmth in the southern Plains combined with a continuing lack of rainfall to create severe drought conditions across eastern Oklahoma, parts of Texas and Arkansas. For the year, many locations in this region received less than 70 percent of their average annual precipitation. Little, if any, precipitation fell during the last three months of the year, and October-December was the driest such period on record in northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and much of Arkansas. Daytime highs were in the upper 70s and 80s, with strong winds and extremely dry conditions. This led to extensive wildfires that destroyed homes and businesses and caused several fatalities in Texas and Oklahoma as more than 300,000 acres burned. This was part of a record-setting 8.6 million acres nationally lost to wildfire in 2005, according to preliminary data from the National Interagency Fire Center.

By contrast, a series of strong Pacific storms moved across the West Coast in late December. The largest rainfall totals since 1997 occurred in many parts of northern California and Oregon, leading to damaging floods and mudslides. Snow fell in the highest locations of the Sierras, while rain fell in many mid-elevation locations that had received snow in early December. In a reversal of the dry conditions observed during the 2004-05 winter season, average-to-above-average snowpack levels covered northern Colorado to northern California and parts of the Pacific Northwest, producing a good start to the water year (Oct.-Sept.) for these areas.

Conversely, very dry conditions in the mountains of southern Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona left many locations with at-or-near record low snowpack at the start of 2006. More than 90 percent of reporting stations in Arizona, the most in at least 40 years, were snow-free Jan. 1. The West is heavily dependent on seasonal snowpack to fill reservoirs during the spring and summer melt season. The heavy snowfall in this region during the 2004-05 season has left many reservoirs at relatively high levels, which will help diminish impacts if this season's snowfall remains below average. (Excerpt from NOAA Magazine )

New Horizons Mission

The scheduled launch of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) New Horizons spacecraft to Pluto was postponed yesterday due to weather. NASA will try again today to launch the Atlas V rocket. The launch window extends until Feb. 14, 2006. (NASA)

Augustine Volcano

Yesterday's explosive eruption began at 11:58 am EST ended at approximately 12:03 pm EST. The level of concern color code was raised to RED. Based on seismicity, preliminary estimates indicate that this event is at least as energetic as the events of last week.

Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) is monitoring the situation closely and will issue further updates as new information and analyses become available. Volcano information on the internet: http://www.avo.alaska.edu (USGS/ Alaska Volcano Observatory, Region X)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and Pacific. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 5.6 magnitude earthquake occurred at 10:52 pm (EST) on January 17 centered 540 miles north of Guam at a depth of 3.2 miles. There are no early reports of damage or injuries. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has not issued a warning. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The disaster declaration for the state of South Dakota (FEMA-1620-DR) has been amended to include Hand County for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)