National Situation Update: Sunday, November 20, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

California Wildfire Is 60 Percent Contained

Aided by an ocean breeze, firefighters yesterday began to get the upper hand on the School fire, a 3,700-acre wildfire burning in the steep hills above Ventura.

The fire was 60 percent contained at nightfall, and firefighters hoped to have it fully surrounded by Tuesday night.

After being fanned by fierce Santa Ana winds a day earlier, the blaze between Ventura and Ojai, about 60 miles northwest of Los Angeles, calmed as onshore breezes lowered the temperature and the humidity increased.

The fire was burning in rugged wilderness away from homes, but fire officials worried about the forecast return of the Santa Anas, the hot, dry winds that blow from the desert toward the ocean.
The fire roared down School Canyon heading to the northern edge of Ventura. At one point, it burned to the backyards of several large homes. Thick smoke over Ventura forced the closures of several schools and the evacuation of one neighborhood.

Many of the stucco homes in the area have tile roofs, and fire officials said requirements that brush be cleared around houses had helped. Firefighting equipment is headed to Ventura from throughout the state. Bulldozers and hotshot crews worked their way up Highway 101 from Los Angeles.

A red flag warning is in effect until tonight, which increases the fire danger due to warm, dry and windy conditions. The National Weather Service forecast wind gusts up to 55 mph in some areas Sunday morning. (National Interagency Coordination Center, California Office of Emergency Services, Media Sources)

National Weather Forecast

Northeast: It looks like this region will squeeze in one more nice day as we close out the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 40s, 50s and even some 60s possible near the DelMarVa (Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia) region today. Conditions will be dry but that will change as a developing low pressure system pushes moisture into the region late tomorrow and into Tuesday. Expect rain and strong gusty winds as the system intensifies as it moves north. By Tuesday, cold air will spill behind this system and help produce snow for areas like West Virginia and Ohio during the day. Most of the cold air makes its way to the coast on Wednesday, traditionally a very big travel day.

South: Today and tomorrow, an upper-level low will dive from the nation’s heartland, through the Ark-La-Tex (Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas) and into the northern Gulf Coast states. This will initiate a storm along an old frontal boundary migrating northward from south Florida. Showers will increase around the Gulf and Southeast coasts today, setting the Southeast up for a soaking rain tomorrow. Deepening and increasingly windy low pressure will move from the northeast Gulf early tomorrow to North Carolina early Tuesday. As the storm exits the region Tuesday, colder air will arrive. The southern Appalachians could see some snow for several days.

Midwest: One moisture-starved upper-level system will exit the eastern Plains for the Ark-La-Tex later today, leaving the Plains and Midwest rain-free, but cloudy in the Ohio Valley. Tomorrow, a new cold front will enter the northern Plains and Upper Midwest with light snow and rain showers while the developing Southeast storm spins rain into the Ohio Valley. On Tuesday, the cold air will take control of areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward as snow and gusty winds hit the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to varying degrees. The cold from the Mississippi valley will intensify Thursday and Friday as a new windy upper-level disturbance pulls more Canadian air southward.

West: This is the quietest weather region in the country over the next 3-5 days. The stagnant air, fog and low clouds from parts of Washington and Oregon to western Montana will last at least into Wednesday. The Santa Ana winds in Southern California will weaken during the day today. Any locally gusty mountain winds combined with low dew points set the stage for more fires. (NWS, Media Sources)

Wild Fire Update Friday, November 18, 2005

The National Preparedness remains at Level 1.
Current Situation remains unchanged from yesterdays reported status. (USFS, NIFC, NICC)

Tropical Activity

At 4:00 AM EST TS Gamma is weakening as it meanders off the northern coast of Honduras. The center is located about 75 miles north-northeast of Limon Honduras and about 220 miles east-southeast of Belize City. Current conditions will not favor additional strengthening.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, tropical storm formation is not expected through tomorrow.

There are two storms active in the Pacific, but neither storm threatens any United States territories or possessions. (National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A Micro-earthquake occurred at 3:59 p.m. EST on Saturday, November 19, 2005. The magnitude 2.4 event has been located about 2 miles southwest of Summerville, South Carolina. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

There are no specific reports of Tsunamis as a result of the two earthquakes (5.2 and 6.5 magnitude) in Indonesia; however, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center advises that earthquakes of this magnitude are likely to cause local Tsunamis that can be destructive along coasts located within a few hundred kilometers of the earthquake epicenter. (USGS, NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)